Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, April 15 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
Embed from Getty ImagesBEST BET: Fact (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Fact
2. Alston
3. Sweetalkingbourbon
Am against likely fave Rothko, whom I don’t trust at all, but not merely backing into FACT as the alternative choice – like this horse here. His worst finish, last summer at Ellis, came with a troubled trip, and that 7f race probably is shorter than he really wants anyway. Tip Top Thomas is not tip top class, but he did have a pretty good 2025 campaign, and Fact nearly got him in the Smarty Jones. Todd Pletcher trains TTT and also trains Vibe, who beat Fact in their common comeback start last out at GP – Vibe in his pre-layoff start won a Tampa Bay maiden by nearly 10 lengths. Liked the wat Fact worked after shipping north to KEE from winter quarters in Florida. ALSTON has plenty of comeback upside making his first start since June as a first-time gelding. No work video from TTC but he has been posting fast times for that deep surface. SWEETALKINGBOURBON didn’t run a lick at OP last out and never has run especially fast, but he appears to go well over the KEE track, can sit back, make one run, tag tiring speed.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Wednesday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Getting Closer
2. Nightmare Fuel
3. Shot At Perfection
GETTING CLOSER has only gotten two chances in dirt sprints. He took a very, very unjust DQ in his debut, where a slow start took him out of early position; he “interfered” with the horse inside him around the far turn because the horse just outside him gave him a hard bump, sending GC lurching toward the fence. So, that’s two spots of debut trouble, and second out, at Los Al, he got stuck, as the announcer said, “in a cul-de-sac” going to the half-mile pole and around the turn before eventually following the winner into the clear and finishing with interest. That race winner never ran back but was a B Baffert-trained first-timer who took plenty of betting. He has some speed, decent enough work pattern – looks best from here unless NIGHTMARE FUEL has something to offer. He showed little in his lone start, but that came last fall vs. MSW foes at CD, and among all the work video available for this race, his is the best. SHOT AT PERFECTION seems like negative value if he indeed goes favored. He’s a tweener – neither route nor sprint – who probably will get away at least somewhat poorly from the rail and lack the zip to get up.
Second Race
1. Joker’s Chic
2. Rush Hour
3. Pot’s Right
Feel like I am getting better at judging multiple work videos from W Ward-trained horses – but lemme tell you, it’s not easy. You might land on a drill not at all designed to showcase a horse’s talent, where the horse did little and was asked for little – and then watch the same horse turn in a fairly eye-catching move. Found this to be the case with JOKER’S CHIC, who, at her best, worked better than anyone else in the race for which there’s video. Worth noting that Ward has won every 2yo MSW race so far this meet. Can’t see RUSH HOUR being as high as 8-1 in from Florida for Weaver / Saez. Weaver the last five years has run but two spring 2yos at KEE – both lost, both performed respectably. There’s a PMM work vid for POT’S RIGHT – inconclusive, but not bad.
Third Race
1. Honky Tonk Highway
2. Eye Witness
3. Inexorable
Don’t like this race at all. Main opinion is I don’t trust Kavod at something likely lower than 2-1 – not sure it was merely “blinkers off” that produced the vastly improved run last out. HONKY TONK HIGHWAY comes out of much better FG races than Kavod, and connections hold firm for the $50K tag after offering him for $32K a couple times (voided claim in one of them). I’d go so far as to say all the horses who have beaten him the last five races other than, perhaps, Save the Trees and Five o’ Somewhere would be solidly favored here. The lone KEE run was a decent fourth in an MSW way back when. EYE WITNESS has not done a lot since previous connections got $205K for him at the KEE April 2024 sale. Did eke out at KEE win last fall going a two-turn distance almost slightly beyond his best. Don’t know what is going on with the D Jacobson stable – scant winners the last five months. Through this point the last three years Jacobson had 13, 26, and 15 winners compared to three during 2026. Thus, I’m skeptical that INEXORABLE returns from a layoff with a winning effort – though if he brought his top race, he’d contend.
Fourth Race
1. Caragogo
2. I’m Trouble
3. McCann
CARAGOGO debuted in a short route and came out of it looking like a sprinter – wanted to do too much, too soon, faded late. Subsequent work video has encouraged and the barn has been sending live horse after live horse this meet. I’M TROUBLE one of a few W Ward charges on this card racing with blinkers removed. Needs to get back to the more relaxed debut run at KD and away from the overly aggressive races at CD and TP. Work video (dirt) encouraging enough. Trainer G Weaver sent a 2yo firster and a 3yo firster, MCCANN, for this card. Only work video for McCann last summer at SAR. The barn has been on an extended heater with first-time starters.
Fifth Race
1. Couldyoubeloved
2. Black Ginger
3. She’s No Angel
As they used to say at times in the pages of the Daily Racing Form – “No clue in puzzler.” COULDYOUBELOVED has not done a lot wrong in her sprint races – the issue being all of them have come on Tapeta, and the horse never has raced on dirt. Trains over it at TTC, however, and pedigree not obviously synthetic-leaning. If the form transfers to the new surface, she’s a likely winner. Only dropped down to a similar tag in most recent out, which she won. BLACK GINGER with form all over the place – Turfway, Delta, FG, and she posted a recent work at Hawthorne. If she got back to the race she ran during April meet last year at KEE, she’d win – I’m a little skeptical she does. Deflated price in play, as well, I fear. SHE’S NO ANGEL’s two wins came on dirt, and she made her last three starts on Tapeta. Slightly higher-class races her last two starts?
Sixth Race
1. Catch Hound
2. Inordinary
3. Gypsy Art
Caragogo was the first, and CATCH HOUND is the second gray, Rusty Arnold-trained son of Caravaggio I’m taking to win a maiden race on this card. Solid, strong-looking colt who has done some good stuff on workout video. Best of all was his dirt work March 28 at CD, where he went inside Long Pour, a 4yo high 70s to 80 Beyer horse, and comfortably got the best of him. Like him quite a bit, and even tempted to give best-bet status on a tough card. INORDINARY not a bad fifth in perhaps the toughest top-to-bottom 2yo dirt sprint maiden of the KEE October meet. Not a lot of turf in pedigree for grass debut – the sire has zero turf sprint winners but only seven such starters. No recent work videos, but I kept coming back to those fast times. GYPSY ART debuted in a stake and ran in another one second out – and then was beaten four lengths trying maidens in his third start. Didn’t develop much at 2, but now blinkers off and first-time gelding.
Eighth Race
1. Sweet Treasure
2. Child of the Moon
3. Settling Storm
SWEET TREASURE should be the value here over CHILD OF THE MOON – which needs to be the case to take ST from a poor draw in post 12. Liked her CD win last fall, liked her Pebbles third, and after a poor start she was left with far too much to do in the Jan. 17 Krantz. Trouble at the start again last time, then emerged late in the Stall Memorial, finishing quite well behind Expensive Queen and Medoro – the one-three finishers this past Saturday in the G1 Jenny Wiley. Treasure a lightly raced 4yo still with upside while 6yo Child of the Moon has been racing since 2022. She probably ran well enough at TAM last out – couldn’t quite muster the needed late burst – to win this, but hard to see her doing much better than that. SETTLING STORM’s most recent grass race came against considerably softer competition than this, but she finished with a flourish.
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