Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, April 16 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Chapman’s Peak (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Chapman’s Peak
2. Coiled
3. Mutaawid
Didn’t see a horse racing on this card turn in a stronger work (obviously I’m watching them all on my little screen, not in person) than CHAPMAN’S PEAK’s drill on 3/22. Picked it up past the wire and into the club turn, and that gallop out went on, and on, and on some more – you know, like a horse who wants every bit of this 1 1/2 miles. The November and December starts, while decent, came at distances too short for him. And in his lone race this year, he was a good third behind Burnham Square, who could win the Elkhorn this weekend, and Cruise the Nile, a Graham Motion-trained horse who led all the way, finished fast, has won two in a row, and could be anything. Win over the track and pace to avoid trouble. Made him the best bet despite the fact I expect COILED to race competitively. Coiled lightly raced, improving, still with upside, won his lone start at 12f, nearly stayed 16f in the Jerkens. Bottled up most of the Turfway trip last time, got fully untracked the final furlong and galloped out in front. Set to improve. MUTAAWID was far behind Coiled and Carcano last out at TP, but might just have failed to handle the Tapeta. He has at least mildly contending turf form close up in the running lines.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Keeneland card.
Embed from Getty ImagesFirst Race
1. Coastline Hottie
2. Emirates Affair
3. Sunset Harbour
COASTLINE HOTTIE off the barn change (for whatever reason) already was showing signs of improvement last fall racing on wet CD dirt before she hit a new peak over Turfway Tapeta. Those two TP starts also marked her first races in blinkers. In other words, that form could be sustainable on the move back to dirt, and if it is, she can beat heavily favored EMIRATES AFFAIR. The latter’s two poor races since being claimed for $20K by these connections came for more than three times this $16K tag – when she has been well meant and was in the right kind of race, the horse generally has delivered. Seems like both things hold here – yet I still think she’ll wind up below fair value. SUNSET HARBOUR is back on relatively short rest following that Tampa dud, but she has bounced back before from decidedly subpar performances.
Second Race
1. Ruiva
2. Castle Pines
3. Paper Run
RUIVA obviously needs to come out guns blazing, breaking from post 1 in a full field, but to that end, the one gate-work video we have offers a lot of encouragement. The filly looks like a bullet – she’s very fast and, I’d guess, very ready. One work video from CASTLE PINES is the 3f on March 25, when she clearly was asked for very little, but when asked for that little, showed some spark. Leggy type. First runner for first-crop sire Jack Christopher – we’ve already seen two wins this meet from 2yos by first-crop sires. Where the Ward-trained Ruiva hints at being good from the gate, the Ward-trained PAPER RUN – not so much. She’s broken very poorly in two gate-work videos, though does appear fast once she gets on track.
Third Race
1. Red Beach
2. Aurora Sky
3. Headspin
If trainer G Sacco has run a first-time starter at KEE, it hasn’t happened the last five years. This is a long-established outfit that knows what a good horse looks like, and one can’t help but wonder why they have brought RED BEACH to debut under the bright lights if not because she has shown the requisite ability during morning training. Looks from here like she landed in a very winnable spot. Can’t tell whether there’s a workout gap in AURORA SKY’s pattern that led to connections awaiting this KEE start, or if the gap came because they’d already decided to wait for it. Two turf sprints – both good. She clearly has more pace than she showed in her slow-starting debut. Might be reading too much into it, but looked on not-great-quality video like HEADSPIN might have resented the Tapeta kickback in her lone start. Not a bad race, that. Mott barn with second-time starters in KEE turf MSWs 7-0-0-2, and five of those went off lower than 5-1.
Fourth Race
1. Mo Work
2. White Whale
3. Shangrala Road
I have no problem treating MO WORK’s last out run on the TP Tapeta – first time she’d raced on anything other than dirt – as a practice race for this start. Clearly capable if she just gets back to her ’25 baseline, and the drop into $40K N2L claiming is easier to take with a $50K auction buy than with a big-ticket item. We are talking about a conditioned claimer here, so the works are not going to blow you away, but video of KEE drills offered encouraging signs. Guess they figured WHITE WHALE would have a better shot going two turns at FG than six furlongs – there’s no dirt distance there between those two. Won around two turns for these connections, but think she better suits this 7f distance. Bounce-back potential. Likely fave SHANGRALA ROAD showed very little in her TAM comeback start last out. Cox barn not a great KEE record with allowance-to-claiming moves.
Fifth Race
1. Maycocks Bay
2. Miranda Rights
3. Legalize
MAYCOCKS BAY ran too well to lose that Feb. 21 FG start at this class level, considering he’d been off almost 11 months. Ran hard (seemed so, at least) but given plenty of recovery time while pointed to this race. Would be value at 9-2, the question for me being whether he can sit in the pocket behind another pacesetter, because I wonder, with pace to his outside, if he can win on the lead. MIRANDA RIGHTS had run all right on synthetic in the past but did not do well at all last out at Turfway. Granted, that race looks like a prep for this one, but would feel better about him returning to the 10/18 form that nearly won a KEE contest like this one had he shown at least a little something. LEGALIZE got in another run after chasing Maycock’s Bay home in February. The horse that beat him was coming back from a layoff in excellent form, and the horse that tied him was dropping from FG stakes. Mile would be better than 1 1/16 miles, probably.
Sixth Race
1. Ivory and Ebony
2. Metfardeh
3. Clairita
You think IVORY AND EBONY is a grass horse? Neither do I. You think the turf comeback start last out at Gulfstream was a prep for this main-track start? So do I. She stayed the funky SAR mile and going a two-turn 1 1/16 miles was second behind a champion (granted, Immersive hasn’t progressed a lot since her 2yo season), so I figure she can see out the short-stretch 1 1/16 miles. Wish there were recent work video to get a better sense, but there’s not. METFARDEH in a long layoff comeback run last out appeared to tire late when third behind two C Brown-trained fillies who appear to have some ability. Bested the top pick when they met last summer in an SAR maiden. Probably has some sort of forward move in her. Granted, CLAIRITA ran into an aces showing from Snowyte in her most recent start and was compromised by a stumbling start, but her case for being an odds-on favorite mainly rests on a blowout, sloppy-track, off-turf maiden score last fall. Her big work for this, April 4, did feature quite a strong gallop out, but I can’t get interested if she’s really going to be as short as the line has her.
Eighth Race
1. Awesome Ruta
2. Time for Trouble
3. Trusty Rusty
Was watching video of a Wednesday maiden runner for the J Sharp barn and noted that his workmate not only smoked him but appeared to go quite well regardless of company. That was AWESOME RUTA. So, what you see on paper, one of two “obvious” contenders in this race, is what you’re likely to get out on the track. And the other one, Clooney, comes fresh from California without even a local work – against him. Of TIME FOR TROUBLE’s last five starts, three came on Tapeta, one on turf, and he probably is best on dirt, which he gets here first off the claim. The barn that claimed him since a win on 4/9 has, out of the blue, gone 6-4-2-0, including three wins at KEE, and one can’t help but take that into account. TRUSTY RUSTY enters fresh and was in good form when last seen turfing in SoCal. He’s worked twice in KY, is as good on dirt as on turf, and from here looks set for one of his better races – which still might not be enough.
Ninth Race
1. Sand Pipes
2. Noises Off
3. Tiztastic
Opaque heat to round out the card – a split of R5. Complicating things is the lack of any real pace in the race. That means that SAND PIPES, who has a touch of speed, can get over into a decent position from post 10. He’s been freshened for this and the trainer calls on a Florida-based rider who did well on the horse before – possibly because the horse can be a little tricky? Thought he pulled too hard throughout the Fair Grounds S., where he actually ran decently, facing stronger foes than these at a distance perhaps a touch beyond his best. Not sure NOISES OFF ever fully got into a comfortable racing pattern during his 2025 campaign, and still ran decently a couple times. He’s 6, but I could see him jumping back to his better ’24 performances here. TIZTASTIC was just meh in the American Derby, had a rough go at Saratoga, and lacked any spark ending his ’25 campaign at KD. Will not be surprised if he comes out a different horse this season.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
Put yourself in position to win big this year with DRF’s Kentucky Derby Package. Top data and trusted picks all in one place.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
The post Horse Racing Picks Today at Keeneland for Thursday, April 16 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment