With the first four NBA Play-In games out of the way, the 7 seeds are locked up, as the Philadelphia 76ers and the Portland Trail Blazers advanced. Now we’re down to just two more games, with the 8 seed in both the Eastern and Western Conferences on the line.
Both games feature teams from the same division, so familiarity will be at an all-time high when it comes to preparation. Each game up to this point has been very close, and I expect a similar story tonight. Things will get started with the Eastern Conference matchup between the Charlotte Hornets and the Orlando Magic, followed by the Western Conference matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns.
Now that these lines have been out for some time, let’s dive into each game and see how they’ve shifted—if at all—and where the public bets versus public money are going.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
Embed from Getty ImagesSurprisingly, this game hasn’t seen any line movement, as Charlotte opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has remained there across all sportsbooks, though odds vary slightly.
Looking at public betting splits, the Hornets have seen 73% of bets on the spread, with slightly more public money backing them at 75%. A similar trend shows on the moneyline, as Charlotte opened at -162 and has stayed around that number, with their best value at -160 and worst at -165. Orlando opened at +136, with their best value at +140 and worst at +135.
We’ve seen 75% of bets on the Hornets moneyline, while 80% of the money is on Charlotte, suggesting sharper money may also be backing the Hornets.
Like the spread and moneyline, the total has not moved from its opening number of 218.5. Public betting has heavily favored the over, with 92% of bets and 93% of the money on that side.
Charlotte has had the edge against Orlando throughout the regular season, winning and covering in 3 of the 4 meetings. Totals in those games split 2-2, though all four regular season totals were set higher than the current number.
Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers
This game, on the other hand, has seen much more line movement, as Phoenix opened as a 1.5-point favorite and now sits at -3.5. We’ve seen a large percentage of bets on the Warriors spread at 72%, and that same percentage holds true for the public money.
The moneyline in this game hasn’t seen drastic movement for either team, as Golden State opened at +105 and is now between +122 and +130, while Phoenix opened at -125 and can now be found between -145 and -155. The Warriors have seen 56% of bets on their moneyline, along with 70% of the money.
The total in this game has risen slightly from its opening number of 218.5, as it’s now sitting between 219.5 and 220. Public betting has heavily favored the over, with 93% of bets and 94% of the money on that side.
Out of the two games this evening, this certainly feels like the tougher one to predict. Golden State managed to win 3 of the 4 matchups, though each team covered twice. The under has been more favorable in those meetings, hitting in 3 of the 4 games thus far.

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