Churchill Downs opens its 2026 spring meet on Saturday, April 25, with a 10-race card starting at 12:45 p.m ET.
The day kicks off Kentucky Derby Week, leading to the 152nd Kentucky Oaks on May 1 and the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2. The post position draws for both races will take place live during Saturday’s live program, between the third and fourth races bout 2 p.m. ET.
The $200,000 Roxelana Stakes highlights the card as the ninth race (approximate post:5:46 p.m.), a six-furlong event for fillies and mares featuring Marcus Hersh’s best bet of the day.
Here is the race-by-race analysis and betting breakdown for the opening-day card at Churchill Downs.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: One Magic Philly (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. One Magic Philly
2. Mink’s Palace
3. Zeitlos
Lotsandlotsofcandy will be scratched. Really liked ONE MAGIC PHILLY in the Chilukki last fall, but A) she ran into a very, very good horse in Shred the Gnar, and B) all signs point to one mile being slightly beyond her best distance. I’d go a step further and suggest this cut back to 6f, first time at the distance in a good long while, could help the mare produce her best. I’m ignoring the deteriorating Florida form. Blinkers go back on, and they were on for two very eye-catching CD worksouts leading into this. MINK’S PALACE is the race’s defending champ, and she stuck notably close to the pace on the way to her win last year. Never has gotten as fast as the top pick but runs well at CD and is on the same pattern as she brought to the ’25 Roxelana. ZEITLOS ought to improve off her Oaklawn comeback run last time – but enough to win if there’s not a lot of pace help for her?
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Saturday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Pure Joy
2. Ati Girl
3. Plaza Cue
PURE JOY after three starts has not looked a lot like a seven-figure auction purchase, but the deficiencies she showed in her first three starts could prove assets as she goes from standard two-turn racing to a 1 1/4-mile contest. She lacks speed, she lacks brilliance, but she grinds – the right style for this kind of race. Also gradually improving and should go up another notch here. She’s only run once on dirt, but I’d guess that race, ATI GIRL’s debut, isn’t a true marker of her dirt ability. She was on turf for four races and wasn’t bad, and in her first start for trainer B Mott she ran all right with a wide trip over Gulfstream Tapeta – Mott could have come back in a grass race but instead tries dirt, where she’s been working at Payson. Might be a little something there. PLAZA CUE didn’t really seem to relish 1 1/4 miles in her lone start at a distance anywhere close to that far, but she wasn’t bad in that synthetic-surface start and might prefer dirt.
Second Race
1. Sargent Bilko
2. Uncle With Money
3. Happy Away
Unfortunately no work video for SARGENT BILKO, but the last four of them, if nothing else, are fast. Two gate works – and hope they were good ones because he has the rail. Looks like a “win early” pedigree to me – if such a thing exists. $25K auction buy debuts in an MSW, which we always like to see. Often trainer E Kenneally, who sends out Sargent B, uses jockey L Saez (when he can) on his best-meant mounts, and FWIW Saez lands here on UNCLE WITH MONEY. Not a bad debut run, albeit in a short field, and the nature of his performance suggested a horse who could improve with a race under his girth. HAPPY AWAY is favored on the line, probably will be favored, but at a short price, do you want a horse who in work video has struggled with his homestretch lead change (as in, he didn’t) and broke slowly in the one gate breeze we can watch?
Third Race
1. Saint Nancy S
2. Barbratina
3. Lady Orient
You might say SAINT NANCY S can’t produce her best on dirt and needs synthetic – but what about her debut, an MSW win at Oaklawn? Either a surface switch, blinkers, or a combo of the two finally moved her up in the last two starts, and while her first start in blinkers three races ago came on dirt, I doubt that’s a representative effort. Breeze video says she worked just fine April 19 going outside Shilling, who raced decently in two graded stakes starts to end her 2yo campaign. BARBRATINA will take a lot of action for Sharp / I Ortiz, especially since Sharp does so well with long layoff comebackers. I almost took her on top, but hesitated at the expected price. Those are fast 5f workouts for a horse at this level; the first of them is on video, and it is not nearly as impressive on the visual as on the paper. Carries head way up the air, had to be hard urged to go forward, couldn’t reach the workmate despite strong encouragement. LADY ORIENT will be short price but while consistent is not exactly salty at this class level.
Fourth Race
1. Upturned Brim
2. Illini
3. Lord Majesty
UPTURNED BRIM faced tougher than these last out at IND while getting back to dirt, the preferred surface, after a pair of turf tries. Not sure why the surface switch (lack of dirt opportunities?) since he was going good in FG main-track starts. Claimed from a barn that was, well, very, very hot over the winter, but, figure-wise, ran to established form last time. ILLINI only wins when he can get to the lead – or so the form says. But can he go clear in this field? Probably not. Beat just four foes last out at IND, including LORD MAJESTY, who ran all right into a negative pace flow, can get a better setup here, and has a better race than the last one in him.
Embed from Getty ImagesFifth Race
1. Baytown Bruiser
2. Tiger’s Legacy
3. Wistucky
BAYTOWN BRUISER went 0-12 during 2025 but had no trouble putting away Laurel rivals in a blowout muddy-track score March 7. The racing pattern throughout 2025 looks, to be frank, slapdash and haphazard, but he fairly consistently turns in contending performances at class levels higher than this one, seems to do well at Churchill, and likely goes off a fair price. I couldn’t decide which way to go with TIGER’S LEGACY. He missed 11 months of racing and might not be the same horse now. He ran poorly coming back from the long layoff over TP Tapeta last out – but in December 2024 he ran well over the TP Tapeta coming back from a long layoff. There’s the KEE race about a year ago that fits this spot decently, and the Churchill race two springs ago over this same trip that would probably win. Good enough chance he improves second after the break that it’s hard to overlook the horse. WISTUCKY looks like an overbet bounce candidate, rail-drawn with speed to his outside, though he did manage to overcome a tough inside trip last time.
Sixth Race
1. Cookie Time
2. Click
3. Velveteen
COOKIE TIME popped and stopped in lone start, but $30K maidens over TP Tapeta is a lot different than $12.5K maidens over CD dirt. Think she’s going to run a lot better this time with class relief and surface switch. April 21 pretty much held her own working outside Classy ‘n Connected, 2-1 favorite in R7 on this card, a $40K claimer for older fillies and mares. CLICK only needs one scratch to draw in, and with the rate of scratches on this circuit, good chance she does. Cut back to 6f a plus, and the outside draw is what she needs to best deploy her stalking style. Eight losses all at meaningfully higher class levels than this. VELVETEEN, by contrast, already has made the drop to $12.5K maidens – and it bumped her up to contending form. Competitive race on the lead two back, and then again last time with an entirely different trip. That bodes well, but after two top efforts, does she have another one in her?
Seventh Race
1. Classy’n Connected
2. Jill Jitterbug
3. Dozen Diamonds
I have no feel whatsoever for this race. CLASSY’N CONNECTED’s lone win the last two calendar years came two back when she got a dream setup over Turfway Tapeta. Freshened up since she followed the win with significant regression, and that seems like a good thing. Her Churchill turf race last year looks good enough to handle this bunch if she can get back to it, and were the race to rain off grass and onto dirt, she’d still rate a win chance. JILL JITTERBUG does not really want to run this far, but as the old saw goes, any horse can win at any distance given the right competition – and this is not a strong bunch for the class level. She led in the two turf routes showing in her PPs, and that’s the wrong way to go about getting a horse like this to stay the distance – save ground while covered up and then use the sprint speed after getting into the homestretch. DOZEN DIAMONDS could wind up part of a hot pace on turf, but would be the main threat to Classy on dirt.
Eighth Race
1. War Munny
2. Army Wildcatter
3. Where Y’at
This full field has a lot of speed and thus fall-apart potential, and no doubt WAR MUNNY will be sitting at the rear during the early and middle stages. Worked back twice (strangely, he regularly posts fast work times) since a no-factor OP start that nonetheless produced a speed figure that fits this spot. Interesting to see the big-name rider take the call. ARMY WILDCATTER with the rare Delta-to-Churchill move while on a barn change (the former trainer also is the owner). Would say class-wise we’re looking here at a parallel move. Lone poor showing came on a wet track, and after showing speed his first two outs, he raced effectively from off the pace in the two-turn sprint last time. WHERE Y’AT’s first dirt sprint while wearing blinkers yielded and overdue maiden win two races ago, and the $30K maiden-claiming to $16K N2L move can work. Showed speed in the win but drawn favorably on outside to avoid a pressured inside trip.
Tenth Race
1. Without
2. Theodore George
3. Fort Thomas
Will stick with the obvious favorite here, WITHOUT, who finished with a lot of interest after a troubled trip last out at KEE. Beaten just a length there, and sandwiched between that performance and a very competitive N1X run at Gulfstream in his N American debut is a decent showing in graded-stakes competition. THEODORE GEORGE has a chance on turf but taken here as the top dirt pick. Cleared the maiden ranks in November at Churchill in an off-turf race run over a sloppy track at this same 9f distance. FORT THOMAS’s lone win did come going 9f on the CD lawn, but he has a propensity for finding trouble and even when turning in one of his better runs has fallen short.
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