Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, April 29 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
Best Bet: Waggley (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Waggley
2. Skara Brae
3. Peak Perspective
WAGGLEY ran a little slower than her stablemate SKARA BRAE racing one day apart—both winners—at the Keeneland meet. Track speed comparable on both days. Skara Brae showed good speed, opened up effortlessly, won in a common gallop. And yet – Waggley was even better than that. You know workouts where the rider has their feet in the dashboard, wraps up hard to keep the horse from doing too much? That was Waggley’s race. She won by 3 1/2 without even getting to stretch her legs. I think she’ll get to stretch them some in this $250K stake. PEAK PERSPECTIVE caught wide, mild close in the kind of debut that often—for a barn like this, that doesn’t rocket them into their first start—produced second-out improvement.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Wednesday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. National Eclipse
2. My Noble Knight
3. Empire Builder
Sure, NATIONAL ECLIPSE was claimed March 8 for $30K, and he runs back for only a little more than half that amount. Do the math, and if he wins and gets claimed, connections still make a tidy profit. Worked back 14 days after his last race, which came against considerably stronger competition than this, then breezed three times after arriving in KY, the kind of work pattern suggesting the horse is doing well enough. MY NOBLE KNIGHT hasn’t started for a claiming tag since he ran for $30K in December 2024. The races that got him eligible for all the $12.5K and $16K (etc) starter allowances came before that. The $16K claim feels somewhere between aggressive/realistic and a little too low? Did make $188K last year, after all. One-race blinkers off experiment ends – but was it the equipment alone that produced the subpar run last out? EMPIRE BUILDER has been freshened but hit a concerning form through late winter at Oaklawn. 20-day gap between works. His highs have been pretty high – don’t think he’s getting anywhere near his best, but also can’t rule out front-running victory from rail draw.
Second Race
1. Real Macho
2. Mister Mmmmm
3. Barksdale
REAL MACHO’s 0-1 record at CD came via a 1 3/16-mile race, much farther than he wants to run. Been racing in one-turn miles, and I like this 6 1/2-furlong distance even better than those. Won last time despite – not because of – leading on a slow pace; better with something to run at. Was watching works from a different horse in this barn and happened upon his 4/10 gate drill – quite lively indeed. This barn hit 13-percent winners from nearly 300 runners during 2025, but from 74 starts this year, is flirting with a 30-percent strike rate – and I’m paying attention. MISTER MMMMM was actually a dirt horse before a switch to turf led to several good years. Hasn’t raced at a level this low in a good, long while now, and have to think connections would be all right moving on. Blipped back to something better Feb. 16 but the two races surrounding that hinted at serious form slippage. Back in fall of ’22 he nearly won a Remington Park dirt allowance over 6 1/2 furlongs, but there’s little question that the horse prefers 5 or 5 1/2. All that negative talk and I have him highly rated here – expect a bounce-back to some degree with all the class relief. Clearly, BARKSDALE can win with anything approaching his best race. Was in position to do something last out at the 5 /16 pole and completely fell apart, albeit at a much higher class level. Will the D Jacobson barn ever get rolling this year?
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Third Race
1. Ruiva
2. Champagne Dream
3. Bush
Top to bottom, the best on-paper 2yo maiden so far this year in Kentucky – as it should be. The farther into the year we get, the larger grows the pool of race-ready juveniles. So, RUIVA now has been scratched twice by trainer W Ward – after the first one, where I thought she’d win, she was intentionally held out in favor of a stablemate – and then it happened again. I do not believe the scratches are related to how the horse is doing – not from the look of her April 23 work video. As has been the case in the works we can see, when they let her do anything she looks …. very fast. At 5 or 5 1/2 I might take CHAMPAGNE DREAM, but if Ruiva breaks, I don’t see them getting her. If Ruiva is live like I think she is, she’s probably lower than the 4-1 morning line (no doubt, this is a tough race to make a line), and if Champagne Dream is the filly I think she might be (at least at this early stage) she’s likely lower than 6-1. $350K sales buy from first crop of brilliant Life Is Good. There’s work video from the April 23 gate drill: She broke alertly, appears to have some speed, and really got rolling going to the finish and out around the turn, leaving her workmate in the dust. Appears to have some heft to her for an early 2yo. No work video, alas, for morning-line favorite BUSH, but she posted a good time from the gate and this barn has been live all year.
Fourth Race
1. Turbo Launch
2. Feral
3. Abbi Fede
Granted, it was a sprint, not a route, but in his most recent start, TURBO LAUNCH did something he’d never done before – sit back, rally and pass horses. Would have come closer to the good-inside-trip winner who got a big jump on him had he not tried to lay in on horses upper and mid-stretch, failing to switch leads until past the eighth-pole. Do think he’s meant more as a miler than a sprinter, and that the improved showing last out provides a solid stepping-stone into this route. We do have one recent work video, a solo drill, quite lively indeed. FERAL ran all right in his lone turf race, a Saratoga route, albeit fading to the finish for third in just a six-runner field – but it was fine. His winter/spring Oaklawn dirt form, at slightly higher class levels than this — also fine. Makes a lot of sense in this spot and 6-1 listed odds would be plenty fair, so why do I not feel more supportive? ABBI FEDE has work video too, FWIW, going surprisingly well inside the pretty good older dirt horse Furio. They have kept running this horse 10 and 12 furlongs – and I’m not exactly sure why. I think the middle distance will suit her just fine.
Embed from Getty ImagesFifth Race
1. Scarce
2. Diagram
3. Bourbon and Spice
SCARCE’s running lines and replays from her 3yo campaign last year won’t set the heart racing, but I think there’s more to her than that. As in, baseline, she was cut out to be competitive in those MSW starts, things didn’t quite break her way, she started training worse and needed a break — you know, all the things that come up with racehorses. Fresh start! Away since September, and the generally very high strike rate (small sample size alert) with W Beckman-trained horses going from maiden-special-weight to maiden-claiming competition stands up to more specific investigation – couple of those winners came with layoff runners like her. Favorable impression from the work video. They bring DIAGRAM back for her first start since July at exactly the same level she last tried – $50K maiden-claiming. That’s a positive sign, and I expect her to run here like she was before the layoff – show speed and get caught. BOURBON AND SPICE debuted for $30K on Tapeta, but maybe better on dirt? Faced a large field in the IND MSW last out and had a weird trip – part of a mass of horses trying for the lead, displaced on the front end, pushed down inside, stayed on decently. Could do better, as could RIBADEO in a tricky race.
Seventh Race
1. Shoot It True
2. Roja
3. Justinqueso
SHOOT IT TRUE last month at KEE went down to defeat as a 2-5 favorite, very short, but not unreasonable. What a disaster. For starters, she broke through the gate pre-start — and it got worse from there. Would not be surprised if the jockey was riding to instructions – this is a fast filly who once knew only one way to run, going to the lead, but gradually learned to deploy rating tactics. Thus, the trainer might be at pains to keep her from reverting to her old style. That said, she was under a hammer lock to be taken back off a moderate tempo, and when it was time to run, SIT already looked spent. Very good turf sprinter who can get back to her better form. Before the KEE debacle, she had two sharp turf sprint wins and a second behind Queen Maxima, one of the top couple female grass sprinters in N America. It’s been a minute – the better part of nine months – since we saw ROJA in action. She worked a few times after her last race, then went to the sidelines. I expect her to come back running. Didn’t beat bad horses in the MTH stake, and liked how after showing speed she finished that race off with good energy. Lone turf defeat came after a speed duel. JUSTINQUESO has gotten only two tries in standard American turf sprints – a tough trip last October at KEE, and then a good closing second at this class level racing over the CD course. Encouraging end to her campaign, and looking at the GP Tapeta comeback as a pure prep for this.
Eighth Race
1. Good Mojo
2. Norwich
3. Sharons Beach
GOOD MOJO turned in a flat run in January, got gelded in February, and in March started putting together this eye-catching work pattern filled with bullet drills. Sadly, we can watch none of them. He fits this spot far better than the morning-line odds. Best races came at CD, and in the first of them, he went too hard early, got in a duel, and gasped home. He’s better stalking and did just that Nov. 7 on the way to a very nice course and distance victory. Feeling is he’s coming back into action in that kind of form. Rail-drawn NORWICH doesn’t have enough zip to make the lead, which makes his post position problematic. Was claimed by these connections last June, presumably to run in restricted races just like this one. They took him to Saratoga for that chance, he got hooked into a duel going the funky SAR mile, and wasn’t seen again for months. Did not run great, did not run at all poorly in the March 19 that seems very much like a stepping-stone to this start. SHARONS BEACH second to a pretty good horse—who subsequently sold for a pretty penny at auction—racing at this class level (or thereabouts – there are so many conditions it’s hard to keep track) April 8 at KEE. Yeah, April 8 – it’s a little quick back for me to feel confident. But not as much as with MO WORK, who just ran the race of his life on April 14.
Ninth Race
1. Parchment Party
2. No Bien Ni Mal
3. Interceptor
Jokestar is a capable marathon (by N American standards) performer and came to the Temperance Hill on March 28 at Oaklawn with deep fitness from a long campaign. PARCHMENT PARTY came to it unraced since going to Australia for the Melbourne Cup on Nov. 4. (Don’t really think Parchment Party is a grass horse to begin with, and a race at that level on a wet course – he didn’t stand a chance.) Parchment Party got caught wide without cover on the third turn after coming under pressure at the half-mile pole – and still wore down Jokestar for the win. If you wanted some validation regarding his long-distance dirt form during 2025, which consisted of only two races, well, there it was. Relatively lightly raced horse who should run better this time than last—and if he does, he wins. NO BIEN NI MAL I thought was better than the speed figure winning the Greenwood Cup over 1 1/2 miles last fall, his most recent race and just his second since being imported from Brazil. Trainer P Lobo thought enough of the horse to send him to Saratoga to capitalize on the fact a G1 winner had N1X allowance eligibity, and he won that with speed to spare. The pace was too slow at Parx, which led to him pulling too hard, but with more speed perhaps signed on this race, he could get a comfortable trip if the rider can get him outside and into the clear. Lobo had hoped for a prep race, but a minor setback early in the winter ruled that out. At age 4, INTERCEPTOR is the baby here. He’s already moved forward after being stretched to 1 1/4 miles, and I think he stands a decent chance of proving even better over 1 1/2 miles.
Tenth Race
1. Twolatebabydoll
2. Heart Spin
3. Never Really Know
The cut-back in distance to make her a late-running sprinter worked the first time with TWOLATEBABYDOLL, who finally won a maiden race, but not so well when she came back in an N1X allowance. Her baseline in two-turn middle-distance races is high enough that one imagines she makes the most of a class drop from straight maidens and N1X allowance into this $30K conditioned claimer. Don’t mind the light work pattern. J Ortiz regains the mount after riding her to victory two back. Might have taken HEART SPIN for the minor upset had she not drawn post 12. Feel pretty confident she “needed” that KEE comeback run to shake off rust, and that she’s headed back to the level she showed in her quite solid 2025 finale. Has no speed though, and never wins, and can’t encounter much trouble and still hope to contend. Yes, NEVER REALLY KNOW got rained off turf last time, accounting for her step back in performance, but to date she’s needed the lead to show her best, and there’s other speed to keep her from having an easy time of it.
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