UFC Perth Predictions:

Perth, Australia, is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night production featuring Della Maddalena vs. Prates. The card features 12 fights, all of which pit an Aussie athlete against an opponent who must travel from outside the country to compete.

These fights air at prime time in Perth, while the US will tune in to the preliminary action at 1 a.m. PT Saturday, and the main event airs at 4 a.m. PT. Aussie fight fans are rowdy when the fights are held at unreasonable hours in the early AM, so when they can imbibe and then take in the battles at prime time in Perth, the scene is liable to be crazy! 

The UFC will also use the large cage. Seven bouts feature welterweight (170 pounds) or larger men competing, which should further fuel the rabid crowd in attendance looking for violence. 

Last week, Aljamain Sterling +130 proved once again that he is a legitimate threat to featherweight champion Alex Volkanovski’s title belt when he defeated Youssef Zalal in dominant fashion. The question everyone awaits is, will he finally get a chance at the title fight he has earned?

Digital results to date: 8-8-1  -1.0u

Carlos Prates -120 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +100 

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Welterweight (170 pounds) main event

Prates, currently ranked fifth in a very competitive division, is a true character. Not only is he one of the leaders of Team Fighting Nerds from Brazil, but Prates, a chainsmoking party boy, is as dangerous in the octagon as he is deft on a dance floor.

Prates began his fighting career as a formidable Muay Thai striker. Then, early in his youth, he began to develop his Jiu-Jitsu, which provided Prates with a tremendous balance of fight ability. He is able to excel on the feet, pressed against the cage or on the canvas. 

Prates, 6-1 in the UFC, is long, tall, highly athletic, and very aggressive. His sole loss was three fights back against Ian Machado Garry. Since that setback, he has earned decisive victories over fighters now freefalling out of the top 15 in Geoff Neal and Leon Edwards. 

In an ideal setup, Prates’ adversary in any fight would choose to stand with him and try to bang it out on the feet. 

The number one-ranked Jack Della Maddalena is an Aussie scrapper who is extremely durable, highly athletic, and holds a black belt in BJJ. Where Prates uses his length to set up his striking, Della Maddalena uses his aggressive forward-pressing boxing to engage opponents. 

Della Maddalena applies constant forward pressure to supplement his combination striking. Where Prates may have the power, Della Maddalena possesses the striking volume, forceful forward pressure and durability that will be the determining factor in this fight. 

Provided Della Maddalena can back Prates up, then this fight becomes most favorable for him. However, Prates flamboyant kicking, flying knees and forceful striking will look to meet Della Maddalena in the center of the cage. From there, the fighter backing the other combatant up will control this fight.

Della Maddalena has an edge in experience. He’s been in with the champion of the division as well. He fights in front of his homies, so he derives an advantage in those aspects of this fight. 

This will be a classic long, tall striker striving to create damaging strike angles against a forward plodding, determined, workhorse of a bull, looking to badger the Brazilian with constant pressure for fifteen minutes.

When this fight turns to the championship rounds, Della Maddalena’s constant pressure, his body attack and his professionalism (he does not drink, smoke or joke during fight camps while Prates drinks, smokes and parties right up to fight time) together begin to take effect on a young athlete who is enamored with his many dynamics as a fighter but is a touch naïve about how to conduct himself leading into a championship level five-round fight. 

This will be a brilliantly contested fight for the first three rounds, then at the bell to round four, Della Maddalena will separate his skills and effectiveness from Prates. It is not out of the question that Della Maddalena will eventually separate Prates from his consciousness. If that occurs, I expect it to happen in the last rounds of this fight when the nectar and nicotine begin to affect the partyman. 

UFC Perth Best Bet: Jack Della Maddalena +100  

Steve Erceg -340 vs. Tim Elliott +290 

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Tim Elliott arrives at this bout off an injury layoff and a change in camps yet again. Elliott, now 39, is coming off two fights where he beat ranked fighters who were favored over him. 

At his best, Elliott is a fantastic grappler. He has a wealth of UFC experience and has been in with the division’s elite for a decade now. Elliott’s greatest asset is his unorthodox approach to fighting. He is completely inconsistent with his movements and fights in a ‘herky-jerky’ style that often confounds and perplexes opposing athletes. 

My concern for Elliott in this fight is how well he can recover from his recent surgery (at his current age), as well as the opponent the UFC has chosen for him, who should present a great test. 

That opponent is Australian fighter Steve Erceg. Erceg shot to the top of the flyweight rankings just after his UFC debut, as he battled then-champion Alexandre Pantoja to a decision loss over five rounds of championship battle. 

Erceg competed next against top-ranked flyweights Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno when he should have probably stepped back and improved his game further against less acute fighters as opposed to biting off more than he could chew so early in his UFC career. 

Now, after a victory over journeyman Ode’ Osbourne, he receives this test against the 11th-ranked Elliott in Perth. 

Erceg is taller, longer and nine years younger than Elliott, who travels across the world for this fight after recovering from a major surgery. While Elliott is game, unorthodox, and willing, he does have to be able to ‘shuck and jive’ in order to evade incoming damage from Erceg in this fight. 

So we have Elliott, the more beguiling, savvy, cagey fighter, taking on a larger, younger, motivated, well-rounded Erceg who fights in front of his brethren in Australia.

This seems like a tough situation for Elliott. Could the UFC be doing to Elliott and Beneil Dariush what they have been doing to other mature UFC athletes (see Gil Burns) in that they are allowing younger, hungry fighters to retire the older generation of UFC athletes?

Erceg should win this fight via a one-sided decision, but at this price, this fight is a pass.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -240

Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC Perth there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities. 

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