Here are tonight’s NHL predictions and best bets.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-118) at Montreal Canadiens (-102) 

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Total 5.5 (-110)Canadiens lead series 3-2

7 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning are on the verge of a first-round playoff exit for the fourth year in a row. Courtesy of @chrismeaney, this series has been tied or been within one goal for all but 5:37. There has been at most a one-goal margin for 98.2% of playing time through five games. The Canadiens have led for 32.7% and the Lightning just 8.6%. All five games have been decided by one goal, and the last four have finished 3-2. 

What’s been most surprising with the Canadiens leading the series is that their two best players, Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, have scored just one goal between the two of them. The Habs have been carried by the trio of Zac Bolduc, Kirby Dach and Alexander Texier, who have scored six of the Canadiens’ last eight goals. 

For the Lightning to extend the series, they are going to need goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to be at his best, and it’s been quite some time in the playoffs that Vasy has stood on his head in the postseason, with just five wins in his last 20 decisions. Up front, it’s been a struggle for Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov continues to struggle in the playoffs as he has just one goal in his last 20 postseason games. It hasn’t been for lack of shooting the puck. Kucherov’s 22 shots on goal in the series (8,3,1,5,5) lead all players. Defenseman Darryn Raddysh is second on the team with 20 shots on goal (6,3,1,4,6) in the series. Raddysh and Kucherov have had at least one shot on goal in the first period in four of the five games. 

One other betting note when it comes to elimination games. Six of the nine round one games in which a team was facing elimination have been decided by two goals or more. Two of the three one-goal games were won by the team staving off elimination.

NHL Predictions and Best Bets: Kucherov/Raddysh 1st period 1+ shot on goal (+104) – 1 unitKucherov/Raddysh/Tage Thompson (Buf) 3+ SOG parlay (+114) – 3 unitsMontreal Canadiens -1.5 goals (+215) – .10

Buffalo Sabres (-120) at Boston Bruins (+100)

Total 5.5 (-120)Sabres lead series 3-2

7:30 p.m. ET

The Bruins forced a game six tonight as David Pastrnak scored the OT winner in game five. It sure looked like he said to the Sabres fans, “We will be back” (for a game 7). The issue for the Bruins in this series has been scoring goals. Boston has scored two goals or fewer in four of the five games in this series, including their 2-1 overtime win in game number five. All five games in this series have had one goal or less in the first period, and with that, the first period Under 1.5 goals is a perfect 5-0. 

With goals being at a premium, I will keep the card very light. I will take another crack at an Owen Power assist. The Sabres defenseman had his six-game assist streak (four playoff games, two regular season games) snapped in game five, but his (+220) price for the assist offers great value. 

I will also parlay a shots-on-goal prop featuring one defenseman from each team. The Sabres Bowen Byram has registered two shots on goal or more in all five games of the series, and Boston’s Charlie McAvoy has had at least two shots on goal in all but one game of the series. 

NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
McAvoy/Byram each 2+ shots on goal (+130) – 1 unit
Boston Bruins Team Total Under 2.5 (+115) – ¼ unit
1st period Under 1.5 goals (-120) – 1 unit
No Goals 1st 5 minutes/Under 6.5 (-108) – 1 unit
Owen Power assist (+220) – ¼ unit

Vegas Golden Knights (-115) at Utah Mammoth (-105)

Total 5.5 (Over, -130)Golden Knights lead series 3-2 

10 p.m. ET

From our friends @OptaSTATS, in NHL history, there have been 29 instances of a team trailing in the third period in each of the first five games of a playoff series. Of those 29 teams, 28 were behind in the series or had already lost the series after five games. The lone exception is this year’s Vegas Golden Knights. The Utah game five loss in particular had to sting with the tying goal coming with less than a minute to play, and the game-winner in overtime was a shorthanded goal by Brett Howden. It was the second shorthanded goal for both Howden and Vegas in the series, and it’s magnified even more by the fact that the Mammoth have scored just one power play goal through five games (1/13). 

I will pass on the side and instead focus on playing the full game Over (5.5). Four of the five games have had a combined six goals or more and the last two games have both ended 5-4. As always, shop around as some sportsbooks have the total at six. The first period Over 1.5 goals has cashed in each of the last four games.

When it comes to player props, I will continue to stick with the players who have been consistent through the series. Pavel Dorofeyev has been heating up since his move to the top line. Dorofeyev had the hat trick in game five and has four goals in the last two games. He has had three shots on goal or more in each of the past four games. Ivan Barbashev has a point in all five games. On the Utah side, Lawson Crouse has points in four of the five games and is tied for the team lead with five points. Dylan Guenther’s 26 shots on goal lead the team.

NHL Predictions and Best Bets: 
1st period Over 1.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Over 5.5 (-135) – 2 units
Pavel Dorofeyev anytime goal (+220) – ¼ unit
Ivan Barbashev Over ½ point (-106) – ½ point
Shea Theodore Over ½ assist (+120) – ½ unit
Brett Howden anytime goal (+425) – .10
Lawson Crouse anytime goal (+295) – ½ unit
Lawson Crouse Over ½ assist (+250) – ½ unit
Dorofeyev/Guenther 3+ shots on goal parlay (-115) – 2 units
Dorofeyev/Guenther 4+ shots on goal parlay (+264) – ½ unit

Lastly, some interesting trends as it relates to the nine clinching games.

  1. 3rd period Over 1.5 goals (5-4)
  2. 3rd period Over 2 goals (4-4-1)
  3. Empty net goal scored, yes/no (5-4)
  4. Full game Over (5-4) – combined goals (6,6,6,5,3,5,1,7,7)

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