Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs Second Round Best Bets

Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs Second Round Best Bets

After a very profitable first round of the NBA playoffs in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we’re excited about the second round (aka the conference semifinals) that starts on Monday.

In our Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs First Round Best Bets column, we had only two series plays on the 76ers +800 vs, the Celtics and the Lakers +450 vs. the Rockets and swept both, plus if you followed our “takes” on which games to bet the underdog in each series (mostly backing the 76ers, Lakers, Raptors and Magic while passing on the others with a few spot-play exceptions), you would have gone 17-11 ATS (60.7%) even with going 0-2 ATS with Sunday’s two Game 7s. The hope here is that with having such a good handle on all of the teams in the first round that it will carry over into handicapping the second round.

We’ll approach these four conference semifinal series the same way by going over the matchups and then giving our “map” of how we plan to bet the underdogs with our “dog or pass” philosophy. As thrilled as I was with my first-round record, I was just as proud of the games where I invoked the “pass” part of “dog-or-pass.” As it turned out, underdogs went 26-22 ATS (54.2%) overall, so we outperformed that by being selective.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks

Series odds: Knicks -265 / 76ers +225
Game 1 odds: Knicks -7, Over/Under 213

The 76ers came through big-time for yours truly in their first-round upset of the Celtics. I took them with the hope that Joel Embiid would return and give them a lift. That worked with the 76ers rallying from a 3-1 deficit to win the last three games of the series. I feel like I’m playing with house money here, so I’ll pick them to pull another series upset as they’re hopefully at full strength with Paul George, who missed 25 regular-season games to suspension, also playing great in the first round. 

Even though I respect the Knicks (opting not to fade them with the Hawks) and especially Jalen Brunson, I certainly don’t think they’re 7 points better than the 76ers. In fact, these teams split the regular-season series 2-2 and the interesting fact is that both teams swept on the other team’s home floor. That gives me added confidence that the 76ers can steal one of the first two games at Madison Square Garden (and hopefully cover both) to get us off to a great start. I will also take the 76ers at home if they’re short dogs, but pass those games if favored (more “dog or pass” in action).   

NBA Second Round Best Bets: 76ers +225 to win series and plus the points in any game as an underdog, starting with +7 in Game 1.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs

Series odds: Spurs -800 / Timberwolves +575
Game 1 odds: Spurs -13, Over/Under 217

I’m not calling for a series upset here, but I do like the Timberwolves as underdogs in individual games, starting with +13 in Monday night’s Game 1, after what I saw with their upset of the No. 3-seeded Nuggets in the first round. I wish I had foreseen how well they would rally as a team despite all their injuries, as their 4-2 series win didn’t look like a fluke at all. While I know the Spurs have a very talented team led by superfreak Victor Wembanyama that’s capable of winning the NBA Finals, they’re also relatively young and inexperienced, while the T-Wolves have the edge in postseason experience as they’re made the Western Conference Finals two straight years and are trying for a third. In addition, Minnesota won the season series 2-1 (though the last matchup was in mid-January), so I’m not worrying about them being in every game. I’ll also take them at home where they should still be decent-sized dogs unless the market adjusts.   

NBA Second Round Best Bets: Timberwolves plus the points in any game as underdog.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons

Series odds: Pistons -125 / Cavaliers +105
Game 1 odds: Pistons -3, Over/Under 214

I faded both these teams in the opening round with the Raptors and Magic (though I’m glad I didn’t bet either to pull the series upset) and went 4-3 ATS in each series, but lost both Game 7s on Sunday. Anyway, these two teams survived and advanced like I figured they would anyway. And I’m ready to fade the favored No. 1-seeded Pistons again with their young team as they trailed the Magic 3-1 before rallying to win the last three games and avoid an embarrassing exit. The Cavaliers can do the same thing here. 

Obviously, oddsmakers have this as a pretty even matchup as well, with the Pistons a very short -125 series favorite and only -3 in Game 1. These teams split 2-2 in the regular season with a 1-1 split on each home court, so this definitely looks like it could be a zig-zag (aka “loser of the last”) series and go at least six games. I’ll start with the Cavaliers +105 to win the series (hoping they clinch in Game 6 at home instead of having to go to Detroit for Game 7) and as 3-point dogs in Game 1. I’ll also take them plus the points in any game. The only time I’ll take the Pistons is if they’re getting points in a zig-zag role (the most likely being Game 3 on the road if the series is tied 1-1 as expected).    

NBA Second Round Best Bets: Cavaliers +105 to win series, plus anytime getting points as an underdog; Pistons plus points only as zig-zag underdog.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Series odds: Thunder -1550 / Lakers +950
Game 1 odds: Thunder -16, Over/Under 213

This series is just like the other Western Conference semifinal, as the defending champion Thunder is a huge favorite against a team that pulled a first-round series upset. In this case, I had the Lakers in the opening round and am very tempted to ride them again after their upset of the Rockets without even needing Luka Doncic to return. That’s kind of what I was counting on when making that pick, so I was impressed the rest of the team stepped up anyway (we love the “fallen star theory” and it worked like a charm there). 

The problem is that the Thunder are on another level right now and have a great chance to be the first NBA team to repeat as champs since the Warriors in 2018. In addition, the Thunder swept the season series 4-0 by an average of 29.3 points. So, I’m going to pass on Game 1 even with the Lakers getting 16 points. Instead, I’ll wait for Game 2 and assume the Lakers will be in a zig-zag role. If they fall down 2-0 (but hopefully covering ATS in Game 2), I’ll definitely take the Lakers as home dogs in Game 3. If they’re down 3-0, I’ll pass; however, if the Lakers steal a game along the way and Doncic returns, I’ll take them as dogs in any remaining games.   

NBA Second Round Best Bets: Pass in Game 1, but Lakers plus the points in Game 2 if they’re down 1-0 and plus the points in Game 2 if trailing 2-0 and any other game as long as they don’t fall behind 3-0.

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