Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Liverpool vs. Chelsea
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
I love this time of the season. To be successful, it pays if you can think outside the box a little. As a result, this week is a really strong one for selections. There are six picks in total, so strap yourself in for a bumper edition.
My first bet is in the opening fixture of the slate, which sees two of English soccer’s biggest names meet in a season where both have fallen short of expectations. The play is a simple one, and it is Liverpool on the moneyline at -122.
Chelsea are in absolute turmoil on and off the pitch, with a rookie coach in charge and most of their players massively underperforming. I wonder if, given their time again, the owners would keep faith with Enzo Maresca, who delivered the Club World Cup but was sacked soon after.
In what has always seemed a toxic dressing room, the attitude of the players appears to be at an all-time low. Despite some inconsistency, it at least looks like Arne Slot can count on his team to try.
The Reds’ record at home remains strong, losing just two of their last 16 games at Anfield, with those defeats coming against Manchester City and PSG. Their opponents here are a mid-table outfit at best, with many of the relegation candidates showing better form and more fight.
I feel Liverpool have been disrespected in the market, especially with Chelsea playing in the FA Cup final next weekend to save their season. The fact there are seats still available in the Chelsea end speaks volumes for the feeling of the fans to their club right now, and the home side can pour on more misery here.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Chelsea – Liverpool to win at -122.
Brighton vs. Wolverhampton
Saturday, 10:00a.m. ET
Brighton’s surge towards a European qualification spot took a hit last weekend when their five-game unbeaten run was ended by a 3-1 defeat to Newcastle. The race for a top six spot, and possible Champions League soccer next season, is a close one with the Seagulls now in eighth but just two points adrift.
During the week, the club received a massive boost as manager Fabian Hertzler signed a new long-term contract to fend off interest from Germany. This represents a massive chance to return to winning ways as they host rock bottom Wolves, a side still without a win on the road this season and who have only scored seven goals.
The visitors have lost 12 of their 17 away games in the league, with 10 of those defeats coming “to nil.” Brighton is priced at -360 to win, but that is boosted up to +114 if they do so and keep a clean sheet.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs Wolverhampton – Brighton to win to nil at +114.
Fulham vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 10:00a.m. ET
Bournemouth are priced at +140 to win this match, which I like and wouldn’t put anyone off taking. I also think they will get bet so kick off much shorter. Fulham’s performance at Arsenal last week was dreadful, with the game over before halftime. They now have several key members of the squad missing with injury.
The manager also seems ready to walk away with his contract up in June, and the players look ready for their holidays. A contrast to Bournemouth, who are now 15 league games unbeaten and could possibly take a Champions League spot, which would be mind-blowing.
Manager Andoni Iraola and a couple of his players are linked with moves to big clubs, which is a testament to the work he has done with the Cherries. A similar scenario unfolded last summer, yet Iraola shrugged it off and has his team massively punching above their weight.
I was in the stands to watch Bournemouth totally outplay Arsenal at the Emirates recently, and they were outstanding in a 2-1 win. Part of a sequence that sees them yet to lose on the road in 2026. I am taking them to extend that run with the cover of a refund if the game ends in a tie.
Fulham have issues at both ends of the pitch. Failing to score in six of their last eight games, while only keeping one clean sheet in their last 10 at home.
EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs Bournemouth – Bournemouth Tie No Bet at -130.
Sunderland vs. Manchester United
Saturday, 10:00a.m. ET
This looks like a perfect time to play Sunderland with their performances after a stunning season really tailing off. They were smashed 5-0 by Nottingham Forest in their last home game, having shipped another four in the game prior to that at Aston Villa.
Last weekend’s 1-1 tie at Wolves hardly suggests they are back on the boil and with key defender Dan Ballard sent off in that fixture, he misses the rest of the season through suspension. That spells danger against a Manchester United side who are flying under Michael Carrick, with no team picking up more than their 32 Premier League points since his arrival.
The Red Devils have scored in 23 successive games, and extending that run is expected and could be enough to get the win. But with Cunha, Mbeumo, Fernandes, Mainoo and Casemiro all in great form, they could score a few.
EPL Best Bet: Sunderland vs Manchester United – Manchester United to win at -117.
Crystal Palace vs. Everton
Sunday, 9:00a.m. ET
In a tried-and-tested strategy that has been paying dividends for what feels like months, I am fading Crystal Palace again. If there was any doubt in doing so, they were cleared in the post-match comments by Oliver Glasner after the 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth.
The Eagles manager said his players’ tanks were empty and that basically it was all about Europe for them for the rest of the season. A Europa Conference League final awaits, and winning that trophy would be a fitting legacy for a man who guided the club to their first trophy when winning the FA Cup last season.
Everton can take advantage to keep alive their outside hopes of being in Europe next season due to their finishing league position. They were excellent against Manchester City last weekend and came within seconds of holding on to a come-from-behind victory.
The Toffees have an excellent record at Selhurst Park. In 16 meetings here in the Premier League era, Everton have won eight and only lost twice, winning their last two visits.
I like the visitors on the moneyline at +160, but I am again taking the risk out of the tie with a refund if that is the outcome for two sides that can sometimes struggle in front of goal.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace vs Everton – Everton Tie No Bet at -125.
Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle
Sunday, 9:00a.m. ET
Nottingham Forest are priced at +155 to win here with Newcastle +165. However, I think Newcastle will kick off as the favorites.
The visitors may look like they have nothing to play for in their remaining three fixtures, but that is not the case. Eddie Howe will want to end the season on a high after a below-par campaign. He needs his team to play for his job, and I think, given the respect they have for him, they will do that.
Last week saw Nick Pope return in goal, with Anthony Gordon fit for the bench but likely to start here. The biggest boost is the return of Bruno Guimarães, who transforms this team as shown by his recording an assist against Brighton in his first 90 minutes since February.
Forest are all but mathematically safe from relegation after a fantastic run under Vitor Pereira, but will have a hangover one way or another after their Europa League semi-final at Aston Villa on Thursday. Since their return to the Premier League, they have lost seven of the eight league meetings against Newcastle, and I am taking the visitors to improve that sequence here.
The Magpies have won all three visits to the City Ground, but again I am playing it safe by keeping the tie onside, banking a full refund if this ends all square.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle – Newcastle Tie No Bet at -114.
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