We’ve reached Day 15 of the World Cup and with the group stage coming to a close we have six games scheduled. So, I’m switching it up from my usual single match preview and rounding up my best bets across the slate. The final round is where it gets interesting — simultaneous kickoffs, sides chasing goal difference, teams fighting to progress to the knockout phase and others with nothing but pride left to play for. That mix throws up value all over the board, and today’s Group E and F fixtures are loaded with it. Here’s where I think the best value is.

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group E | Thursday, June 25 | 4PM EST | Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia

Curaçao (+1700) | Draw (+750) | Ivory Coast (-650)
Over 3.5 Goals (+130) | Under 3.5 Goals (-160)
Curaçao +2.5 (-160) | Ivory Coast -2.5 (+125)

Curaçao’s 0-0 with Ecuador can largely be credited to goalkeeper Eloy Room. The 37-year-old pulled off 15 saves totaling 2.27 xG and was rightfully handed man of the match at the final whistle — aided in no small part by Enner Valencia, who could have had four goals but squandered 7 shots and 4 big chances totaling 1.50 xG.

Ivory Coast also left chances on the table in Matchday 2. In the 89th minute Nicolas Pépé led a breakaway and laid the ball off to Simon Adingra, who rather than hit it first time took a touch and lost possession. Moments later Deniz Undav turned on the edge of the box and scored to put Germany 2-1 ahead, leaving The Elephants’ players and fans wondering what might have been.

With three points secured and the group’s weakest side up next, Ivory Coast have an 86% chance of finishing second (per The Athletic’s World Cup Bracket Tracker at time of writing), setting up a last 32 showdown with the runner-up of Group I — likely Norway, possibly France. A tough test, but one they won’t shy away from.

Ivory Coast should secure victory here for one simple reason: they have ball carriers who can confidently drive forward, break defensive lines through vertical dribbling, and create chances against a low block. Yan Diomande and Amad Diallo on the flanks can run at Curaçao’s defense, get in behind, and cause real problems. Ecuador are a side who lack natural ball carriers yet still generated 2.84 xG, 27 shots and 6 big chances against this same Curaçao side — Ivory Coast have no such limitations.

Back Ivory Coast to start well, dominate and end the charmed life of Curaçao’s goal early.

Pick: Ivory Coast to Win Both Halves +100

Japan vs Sweden | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F | Thursday, June 25 | 7PM EST | AT&T Stadium | Arlington

Embed from Getty Images

Japan (-110) | Draw (+250) | Sweden (+330)
Over 2.5 Goals (-125) | Under 2.5 Goals (+105)
Japan -0.5 (-115) | Sweden +0.5 (-110)

These two meet in a decisive final group game with first, second and third all still possible for both depending on how results play out. Per The Athletic’s World Cup Bracket Tracker, Sweden have a 60% chance of progressing as a third placed team which sets up a last 32 meeting with the winner of Group I — likely France, possibly Norway. Japan’s most likely group position is runner-up at 44%, setting up a showdown with the winner of Group C — likely Brazil, possibly Morocco. Daunting either way, but the runner-up path is preferable to finishing third and potentially facing France.

Both sides have found the net freely with six goals each across their opening two games, but only Japan have shown they can defend. The Blue Samurai have conceded just twice — holding the Netherlands to 10 shots and 0.78 xG and keeping Tunisia to a clean sheet, limiting them to 2 shots and 0.05 xG. Sweden by contrast have leaked six, allowing the Netherlands to run riot for 2.61 xG from 10 shots and conceding a consolation to Tunisia from 6 shots and 0.28 xG.

This matchup sets up well for Japan on both ends. Graham Potter’s 3-1-4-2 was exposed down the flanks against the Netherlands with Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville getting in behind and on the score sheet. Japan’s wingbacks Ritsu Doan and Kaito Nakamura will fancy their chances of causing similar problems — and with Daichi Kamada and Junya Ito pulling strings behind Ayase Ueda, Japan have the creative quality to hurt Sweden repeatedly.

When out of possession Japan’s wingbacks drop deep to form a rigid defensive line of five, covering the entire width of the pitch and making it incredibly difficult for opponents to find overloads or exploit wide areas. Sweden have looked most dangerous in transition with space to run into — they won’t find much of that here. The back three of Tomiyasu, Itakura and Hiroki Itō have a defensive partnership capable of keeping Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres quiet.

Japan’s -110 represents good value for a side that has controlled both their group games, and Sweden’s defensive run of failing to keep a clean sheet in 13 games and conceding 29 goals at 2.23 per game makes Japan’s Team Total Over 1.5 Goals a must play in my eyes.

Back The Blue Samurai to win and win well.

Pick: Same Game Parlay Japan Moneyline and Japan Team Total Over 1.5 Goals +126

Tunisia vs Netherlands | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F | Thursday, June 25 | 7PM EST | Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City

Tunisia (+1900) | Draw (+800) | Netherlands (-750)
Over 3.5 Goals (+115) | Under 3.5 Goals (-145)
Tunisia +2.5 (-135) | Netherlands -2.5 (+110)

Tunisia have become the whipping boys of Group F conceding nine goals across two matches and now face their toughest test, the Netherlands who are sitting top on four points. Ronald Koeman’s side have a 62% chance of winning the Group and if they pull that off will be rewarded with a last 32 match against the runner up of Group C – most likely to be Morocco. A tough test but not as tough as France or Brazil if they stutter and finish third or second respectively.

Tunisia’s decision to sack Sabri Lamouchi after one game and bring in Hervé Renard has been a fruitless one. The Eagles of Carthage were arguably worse, generating just two shots and 0.05 xG against a Japan side who controlled the game from start to finish with 62% possession. With nothing but pride to play for we could see a spirited performance as they try to exit the tournament with a little credit.

As the Netherlands and Japan drew this group could be decided on goal difference. Both are level on +4 goal difference, but the Oranje have the edge on goals scored having one more. Knowing Japan will be pushing for goals against a defensively poor Sweden, the Netherlands have every incentive to start fast and score heavily to lock in top spot.

They have the attacking tools to do it. Gakpo, Summerville and Brobbey have each scored two goals at this tournament and should form the front three at kickoff. Three of the five goals Tunisia conceded against Japan came from wide areas — precisely where Gakpo and Summerville did their best work against Sweden. Expect the Oranje to exploit those channels early and often.

Back the Netherlands to run riot and heap more misery on a Tunisia side who can’t wait to board their flight home.

Pick: Netherlands -2.5 Goals +110

The post World Cup Picks and Predictions from Alex Blowers for Day 15 Thursday, June 25 appeared first on VSiN.