The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 13, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: BAL is 5-13 (-9.94 units) in the last 18 Home Divisional games with starter Kyle Bradish
Trends Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+139 vs NYY)

Trend: Home teams are 23-8 (74.2%, +13.91 units) in the last 31 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 44.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-163 vs LAA)

* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 247-164 in their last 411 tries (+36.75 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-156 vs SD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 77-58 start for -1.17 units and an ROI of -0.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-131 vs PHI), KANSAS CITY (-112 at CWS), MIAMI (-126 at MIN), ATHLETICS (-149 vs STL)

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STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 23-35 for -16.03 units and an ROI of -27.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+109 at BOS), TEXAS (-112 vs AZ)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 85-61 start for -6.15 units and an ROI of -4.2%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-168 at BAL), CLEVELAND (-163 vs LAA), BOSTON (-131 vs PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at ATL), LA DODGERS (-246 vs SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 43-54 for +7.92 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+139 at CIN), MINNESOTA (+104 vs MIA), HOUSTON (+109 vs SEA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is
<19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 20-10 for -3.45 units and an ROI of -11.5%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-246 vs SF)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 77-97 for -11.65 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+123 at TOR), ATLANTA (+113 vs CHC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 22-28 for -4.32 units and an ROI of -8.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+109 at BOS), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 vs KC), MINNESOTA (+104 vs MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (+199 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks 
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 41-50 for -3.58 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+153 at PIT), TORONTO (-149 vs TB), CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at ATL), HOUSTON (+109 vs SEA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 428-449 but for +31.31 units and an ROI of 3.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-149 vs TB) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 372-408 but for +97.10 units and an ROI of 12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+135 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (+123 at TOR)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 656-772 record, but for +11.50 units and an ROI of 0.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+135 at CLE), ARIZONA (-108 at TEX)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2045-1938 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.97 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, SEATTLE, NY METS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,057-2,631 (43.9%) for -273.25 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, COLORADO, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 621-513 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.44 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-131 vs PHI)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 92-138 SU (-24.69 units, ROI: -10.7%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+123 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 vs KC)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early-season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 505-581 SU, but for +66.53 units (ROI: 6.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+135 at CLE), COLORADO (+153 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+129 at MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 291-301 run (+12.33 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON (+109 vs SEA)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 247-164 in their last 411 tries (+36.75 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-156 vs SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 160-151 (-52.17 units, ROI: -16.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-156 vs SD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO +199 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -131 (+26 diff), NY YANKEES -168 (+18)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-CLE OVER 7 (+1.0), KC-CWS OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NYY-BAL UNDER 9 (-1.0)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) WASHINGTON (20-22) at (902) CINCINNATI (22-20)
Trend: WSH is 8-24 (-11.96 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+139 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 26-16 (+6.44 units) at home with Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-168 vs WSH)

(905) CHICAGO-NL (27-15) at (906) ATLANTA (29-13)
Trend: CHC is 22-8 (+9.30 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at ATL)
Trend: ATL is 12-3 (+9.38 units) on the run line against LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs CHC)

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (18-24) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (24-18)
Trend: SF is 23-9 (+15.24 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+199 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 15-5-2 (+9.50 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-LAD (o/u at 8)

(911) LOS ANGELES-AL (16-27) at (912) CLEVELAND (23-21)
Trend: Over the total is 11-2 (+8.80 units) when LAA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-CLE (o/u at 7)

(913) NEW YORK-AL (27-16) at (914) BALTIMORE (19-24)
Trend: BAL is 5-13 (-9.94 units) in the last 18 Home Divisional games with starter Kyle Bradish
Trend: BAL is 1-9 (-9.27 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+139 vs NYY)

(915) TAMPA BAY (28-13) at (916) TORONTO (18-24)
Trend: Dylan Cease’s teams are 9-10 (-7.32 units) when he starts as a home night favorite since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-149 vs TB)

(917) KANSAS CITY (19-23) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (20-21)
Trend: Under the total is 13-5-1 (+7.50 units) in KC road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-CWS (o/u at 8)

(919) SEATTLE (21-22) at (920) HOUSTON (16-27)
Trend: Over the total is 15-6 (+8.40 units) in HOU home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-HOU (o/u at 9)

(921) PHILADELPHIA (20-22) at (922) BOSTON (17-24)
Trend: PHI is 7-20 (-14.56 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at BOS)

(923) DETROIT (19-23) at (924) NEW YORK-NL (16-25)
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 11-6 (+4.94 units) when he starts as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: NYM is 1-9 (-12.69 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-108 at NYM)

(925) MIAMI (19-23) at (926) MINNESOTA (19-23)
Trend: MIN is 19-14 (+3.77 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MINNESOTA (+104 vs MIA)
Trend: OVER the total is 13-6-3 (+6.40 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-MIN (o/u at 8.5)

(929) ST LOUIS (24-17) at (930) ATHLETICS (21-20)
Trend: ATH is 3-9 (-8.11 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-1.5 vs STL)

Series #16: LA Angels at Cleveland, Mon 5/11-Wed 5/13
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 23-8 (74.2%, +13.91 units) in the last 31 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 44.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-163 vs LAA)

Series #9: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox, Tue 5/13-Thu 5/15
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 25-7 (78.1%, +15.03 units) versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 47%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-112 at CWS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TAMPA BAY, ARIZONA, ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, MIAMI, ARIZONA, ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-BOS

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Wednesday, May 13 appeared first on VSiN.