Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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6:45 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9)

The Phillies (20-22) won last night’s Interleague series opener 2-1, hanging on as -135 road favorites.

In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies hand the ball to righty Andrew Painter (1-4, 6.89 ERA) and the Red Sox (17-24) go with fellow righty Sonny Gray (3-1, 3.54 ERA).

This line opened with Boston listed as a -140 home favorite and Philadelphia a +120 road dog.

The public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take. However, despite the 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line fall away from Boston (-140 to -130) and toward Philadelphia (+120 to +110).

Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 50/50 line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the Phillies getting plus money.

At Circa, the Phillies are receiving 55% of moneyline bets but 73% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in the desert.

Philadelphia has betting system value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.

The Phillies have the more productive bats, posting a .394 slugging percentage and 172 runs scored compared to the Red Sox posting a .350 slugging percentage and 157 runs scored.

7:07 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-155, 7.5)

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The Rays (28-13) took last night’s series opener 7-6 in extra innings, cashing as -120 road favorites.

In tonight’s rematch, the Rays send out righty Griffin Jax (1-2, 5.00 ERA) and the Blue Jays (18-24) turn to fellow righty Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.58 ERA).

This line opened with Toronto listed as a -165 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +145 road dog.

The public is laying the wood with Toronto in a bounce back spot, as the Blue Jays are receiving 62% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.

However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen the Blue Jays fall from -165 to -155, with some shops even inching down to -150. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rays, as the line has moved in their favor (+145 to +135 or +130) despite being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 38% of moneyline bets and 45% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road dog.

Dogs off a win with line movement in their favor, like the Rays here, are 48-44 (53%) with a 13% ROI this season. Division dogs off a win are 40-34 (54%) with a 23% ROI this season. Sweet spot dogs between +120 and +150 are 92-99 (48%) but have produced a 12% ROI this season based on the plus-money payouts.

The Rays have the better bats, hitting .258 with a .330 OBP and 186 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays hitting .247 with a .308 OBP and 175 runs scored.

Tampa Bay is 14-9 on the road and 16-7 in night games. Toronto is 12-11 at home and 9-13 in night games.

7:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-135, 8.5) at Atlanta Braves

The Braves (29-13) won last night’s series opener 5-2, coming through as -125 home favorites.

In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (27-15) start lefty Shota Imanaga (4-2, 2.28 ERA) and the Braves counter with righty JR Ritchie (1-0, 3.63 ERA).

This line opened with Chicago listed as a -140 road favorite and Atlanta a +120 home dog.

The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with the Cubs, as Chicago is receiving 53% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.

However, despite receiving a slight majority of bets we’ve seen Chicago fall from -140 to -135. This signals sneaky sharp reverse line movement on the Braves, as the line is moving in their direction (+120 to +115) despite being the unpopular play.

At Circa, Atlanta is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the pros in Vegas.

Dogs off a win with line movement in their favor, like the Braves here, are 48-44 (53%) with a 13% ROI this season. Home dogs off a win are 53-49 (52%) with a 12% ROI this season.

Atlanta has the better bats, hitting .272 with 233 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .248 with 217 runs scored.

Imanaga has a 3.31 ERA on the road compared to 1.74 at home. The Braves are hitting .285 at home and .271 against lefties this season, both 1st in MLB.

The Braves are 13-6 at home. The Cubs are 9-10 on the road.

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