Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, May 14 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Render Judgment (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Render Judgment
2. Sixtyseven Mustang
3. Coalmoon
RENDER JUDGMENT has found a lovely, lovely spot for an overdue second win. Never thought much of this horse at the stakes level, but in a soft-seeming N1X over a 9f trip he can handle – sure thing. The trouble last out, while not huge, did compromise him, and once the horse got into the clear and switched leads, he did finish with really good energy closing into a soft pace, galloping out strongly. Looks like he’ll get a decent enough setup, but I’d expect him to be favored over Fourth Dimension. SIXTYSEVEN MUSTANG is a weird horse – has shown signs here and there, often on the lead, but look at his competitive showing over this 1 1/8-mile trip – came from well off the pace. His even run over 7f 184 feet last out at KEE just might have him set for one of his better races. The barn’s record with limited stock this year belies its longer-term competence. COALMOON probably doesn’t really stay, has limited upside, but can churn along for a ground-saving piece. Morning-line favorite FOURTH DIMENSION got a great, great setup at the KEE short-stretch 1 1/16 miles last out. He doesn’t, to me, look like a whole lot of horse, and he figures overbet here.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
Embed from Getty ImagesFirst Race
1. Cardio Cat
2. Honky Tonk Girl
3. Juneau
CARDIO CAT, well bet (was always going to be) on debut went well enough, could not reach pacesetting K McPeek-trained firster Valkyrie while 1 1/2-lengths clear of third in a CD restricted maiden, same as this one. Don’t see tremendous upside, but does she need to do much better than her first race to win? Not from the relatively little real information on offer here. Trainer P Miller’s record with first-time starters provides a large enough sample for one to believe that the barn just doesn’t push to win with this type. Of course, we can’t see any of the works for HONKY TONK GIRL; the pattern looks good, some have been recorded as fast times. Hard ot say! JUNEAU another McPeek firster with a chance to knock off Cardio Cat. Two work videos – inconclusive, not impressive.
Second Race
1. Derby Date
2. Global Sensation
3. Be Here
When one claims a 10yo, one would assume one has a fairly short time horizon in mind. That said, running 10yo DERBY DATE back two weeks after the claim might’ve been a little too much short-term thinking. Even so, he wasn’t atrocious there, and probably a closer defeat with a better trip. 7f seems like his trip, the setup could be all right, price okay – and I trust him very little in a race I found a real slog of a puzzle. GLOBAL SENSATION at one point did fine over Turfway Tapeta, and because of that, it’s probably not as simple as hanging his poor recent form on the surface alone. That said, a horse’s surface preference can change over time, and his last form cycle on dirt tracked much higher than the synthetic string of races, though it might also be the case – and I lean this direction – that 7yo came to a strangely strong peak during 2024-25 that he’ll never come close to reaching again. BE HERE’s long and modest career mainly built on routes and turf / synthetic, and while he won at 6f over the winter at TP, that came with a dream setup, and this 7f on dirt should suit him better than the last-out 6f run. Didn’t exactly explode in the homestretch there, but at least a tiny spark late.
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Third Race
1. Beira
2. Liuzza
3. Nilo’s Rose
BEIRA, hailing from a truly veteran barn with a long track record of winning with everything from low-level claimers to Grade 1 animals, went from being vanned off in September to a voided $20K claim in October to a winter break – and upon her return they utilize not one but both of the waived-claiming options? That’s a strong positive, and couple it with the comeback start that looked much like a horse set to improve second time back from the break – this race. Think she gets a decent enough setup, though, at times, the horse has shown positional pace. Good luck trying to slot these new “rated” handicaps into the claiming-class structure – would be difficult enough in an ideal world, and the ratings system still requires some, to be kind, tweaking. LIUZZA exits the handicap ranks and *seems* to be at the right level. Can’t really fault anything in the ongoing form cycle – didn’t handle turf three back, trouble two back. And while she goes for a $20K tag six races after being claimed for $40K, they “got out” on the horse when she won the OP N1X allowance. Still getting mixed signals – wonder what the win price comes up. NILO’S ROSE lightly raced for an open claimer. The win two back came under very favorable circumstances. Can’t trust her to really grind out a win, but her post position and likely trip mitigate some concerns regarding her readiness to do battle with more hardened open claimers.
Fourth Race
1. Captain Luke
2. Cut Throat
3. Beach Sandals
My case for CAPTAIN LUKE rests on two workout videos, 4/12 and 4/26, and the filly he quietly overwhelmed 4/12, Sweet Mary, debuted 5/10 at CD with a sixth (somewhat troubled, and she got claimed) in a $40K maiden-claimer. Still liked the way he went that day and two weeks later, and the morning-line, at least, thinks he’s a price here. Good draw, but mildly concerning number of gate works. No work video for CUT THROAT, by first-crop sire Cyberknife, but going by auction price, breeze times, and the barn’s consistently very high strike rate with first-timers, suppose he’s a likely contender, though probably at depressed odds. Kind of liked the 4/10 work video for firster BEACH SANDALS, and while there’s far less to his 4/30 drill, I think (think!) that drill was designed for the two he went with to go a furlong or two farther than he, and that his rider was easing him out of the breeze as his workmates drew far clear.
Fifth Race
1. Noble Confessor
2. Soleil Volant
3. Carcano
Tough race! NOBLE CONFESSOR still has upside, especially a staying-on, strong galloping type in long-distance heats like this. While the pacesetter went at a strong clip, all but running off early on the backstretch in that April 11 Keeneland race, he never really came back to the field, and NC had to run him down. Looked live like Love’m Or Liam was about to pass Noble C at the wire – and perhaps LOL shut himself down just past the wire – NC came right back on the gallop out and pulled away from the runner-up around the club turn. He did that while the rider flank-flagged him with a right-handed crop – like connections wanted to make sure he got plenty out of race, thinking toward the future – this start. Granted, he got a great setup, but LOL came back with a good CD win at the same class level last weekend. Presider leads here, but Noble C, as he did last time, sits not far behind and gets first run. Liked SOLEIL VOLANT in his KEE comeback race last out following a winter break. Showed next to nothing. Two things: He never seemed to be traveling over what looked like a laboring course holding some moisture, and that race turned into a parade – nobody ever moved. Strong development through 2025 and giving him another chance. CARCANO’s third last out looks better on paper than replay. Can see why they ran the horse two miles – he has, roughly, no turn of foot. Would have to fall into victory.
Sixth Race
1. Curlin’s Malibu
2. Badge of War
3. Classic Car Wash
Sunday and this first card of the new racing week – to me, race after race very tough to parse. Trainer J Sharp has got one of his heaters last week, has horses in four races on this card, and would expect the barn’s strong showing to continue. Two in this race and guessing the second in part was entered to make sure the race went for CURLIN’S MALIBU. Was in for $32K last summer at SAR but this $62.5K claimer a lower level than his comeback run last out at KEE. Not just a theoretical drop either – the two in front of him better, at least currently, than anything here. Late fade at the short-stretch 1 1/16 miles, and actually like him better getting out to 9f here. Not much pace, which just makes it easier for him to keep up while saving ground. BADGE OF WAR appears to be the controlling speed, but while that boosts his chances, I don’t like him to take full advantage – not that fast and lacks deep quality. Wanted to like CLASSIC CAR WASH more than I do. What happened to this horse’s speed? Granted, the rider eased him back last time to avoid getting hung at least four wide on the first turn. Would not be surprised to see something better on the class drop, but wouldn’t want to bet on it at the published win price.
Eighth Race
1. Belle Amour
2. Redhawk Riddler
3. Twirling Claire
BELLE AMOUR stuck out on the AE list, but, you know, scratches galore last week, especially on the CD cards. Third foal to race out of BC Turf Sprint-winner Belvoir Bay – one of them went straight to Saudi Arabia to race, the other hasn’t tried grass. This filly looks well prepped for her debut. Two 2026 work videos, April 2 and May 7, for firster REDHAWK RIDDLER. April one so-so, but looked very much honed down in the 5/7 drill, which I thought was pretty good, especially if this is a turf horse who was breezing on dirt. TWIRLING CLAIRE a clear fit off the recent form, just wonder if a couple firsters might have more to offer.
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