Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Sunday, May 24 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Being Myself (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Being Myself
2. Union Mist
3. Anna’s Promise
BEING MYSELF has raced five times and two of them might make you hesitate to embrace the fairly obvious realization she’s just an inherently better (route) horse than her five rivals. One of those was her debut, a sprint, the other a graded stake where she didn’t get Lasix. She just ran into a good horse when last seen at FG, and the work pattern (plus barn’s proven track record) strongly suggests she’ll be ready back from 4+ month layoff. We’ll see if UNION MIST can run right back to her career-best showing last out at KEE, which got her past the N1X condition. Crafty ride helped her best Clairita, who came back with a solid CD victory at the N1X level, albeit with a very favorable trip. Even if ANNA’S PROMISE were to slip loose on the lead from her rail draw in a short field, I doubt she could press that advantage all the way to a win.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other nine races on Sunday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Hot Gamer
2. Total Fabrication
3. Gladly
I’d expect with a decent break that HOT GAMER pops out of Post 1 and onto the lead, and never looks back. The debut run at OP certainly suggests that’s a likely outcome, and on this considerable class drop, don’t much hold the more recent press-and-fade showing against her. Would guess win odds nearer 1-1 than 2-1. While Hot Gamer comes down from $30K and $20K maiden-claimers and TOTAL FABRICATION exits a race at this $12.5K level, TF faced 11 foes last out in a race likely stronger than this one. Long-layoff comeback winner had raced at a much higher level in her lone start, and runner-up came right back to win at the same class. Total Fab had almost four lengths on the fourth-place finisher and, in her third start, was trying a dirt sprint for the first time – all of which suggests that performance is repeatable. Hard to get much sense of where GLADLY fits in this spot – could be well. She’s never run on dirt (hoped the one CD breeze was on video – it’s not), has routed three times and sprinted twice, appears to lack any kind of positional pace. Maybe? Possibly? No?
Second Race
1. Systemic Change
2. Classic Legacy
3. Curlin’s Gesture
Not at all sure addition of blinkers two back made much difference for SYSTEMIC CHANGE – kind of just ran to form while getting a great setup in easy win there. Field he beat that start less accomplished than horses he handled in NY – which, in addition to the favorable race flow – is why he ran as well as he did going two turns. Not that he’s bad at that, and realize he did win over 1 1/8 miles at SAR, but seems to me like he maxes out at something like 1 1/16 miles (reason to just discount the 1 1/2-mile try last time) while hitting his peak in a one-turn mile – like this race! Perfect outside draw for his style, and while the work pattern isn’t smooth, May 9 work video looked decent enough – one of those drills that doesn’t really heat up until he’s passed the wire – quite energetic out around the club turn. He’s down in class, yes, but still over the last claim price paid. CLASSIC LEGACY just a three-time winner compared to 11 for Systemic Change, and thus less proven on the open claiming market – in fact, his last win came more than a year ago in a “B” claimer. Still, seems pretty certain he fits here. Like him running the way he did two back – stalking / closing and making one run – more than the way he went about his business when facing just four in a CD one-turn mile last November. Don’t see why he’d be a higher price than Real Macho. To be honest I really don’t see a lot to like regarding CURLIN’S GESTURE, but after a very slow start to the year, the D Jacobson barn, it should be noted, has been rounding into form at CD.
Third Race
1. Let My People Go
2. Gardiner
3. Alder
LET MY PEOPLE GO with his baseline performance in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint would pack a strong punch at this $50K claiming class – and I think that’s what he’s bringing. No better kind of race to return from a long break than a turf sprint – and this barn gets all manner of horses ready for representative comeback runs anyway. No real holes in the second-half-of-’25 form, and he was best when fresh at start of last form cycle. LMPG worked at least once with his J Sharp-trained stablemate GARDINER, who has the look of a hulking, quick-twitch sprinter who’d really suit a short dirt dash – which is what he’d get here if the race rains off. LMPG couldn’t stay with him breezing on dirt, but, then, he’s not a dirt horse and Gardiner is. And who knows, maybe Gardiner handles turf, too – his lone grass try came in pre-Lasix, pre-blinkers days. ALDER faced tougher competition than this in his last turf sprint, the 4/26 run, and while seventh there did not at all perform poorly. He really looks like a horse who’d better suit 6 or 6 1/2 furlongs and gets only 5 to work with here. The listed odds are high enough to entice using him somewhere.
Embed from Getty ImagesFourth Race
1. Asheville
2. Rugged Love
3. Quarry
Didn’t mind the look of ASHEVILLE’s Payson works into his debut, but none of them blew me away, and his debut turned out just about as I imagined – solid, not quite good enough, with that seven-furlong trip looking at least slightly too short for him. So, 1) he has the benefit of a race that I think will really move him forward, and 2) he gets an added furlong for his second start. Unfortunately, if I’m reading the horse right he won’t approach the 5/2 morning line. One workout video for debuting RUGGED LOVE, the gate drill on 5/8, and I kind of liked what I saw! Definitely looks like he’d get a mile or farther. With a decent break he probably has enough speed to at least keep up. QUARRY beat Asheville last time but doubt he beats him again.
Fifth Race
1. Circuit Breaker
2. Stoic Sage
3. Nyquistador
CIRCUIT BREAKER is by Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality and connections debuted him in a two-turn mile – one might guess that while he sprinted last time, he can get this one-turn mile with no problem. Were we just looking last out at a one-run, closing sprinter? I don’t think so. It’s not like that 6 1/2-furlong race fell apart, and his was more of a sustained run from the three-furlong marker home and he was by no means cooked at the wire – continued on with a good gallop out well ahead of all but the runner-up. Presume he’ll stick a bit closer this time but still be able to finish things off. Work video from May 8 from STOIC SAGE, which seems important – he debuted on TP Tapeta, where he’d been working, and his lone dirt start looks like a toss. Thus, the question – does he handle dirt? Has an interesting way of going (gets down really low) but seemed to work fine on it. The synthetic debut hints he can contend at a price. Can NYQUISTADOR run to his morning-line favoritism? No clue! Three starts on turf, three on synthetic, no work video. Your guess is as good as mine.
Sixth Race
1. Zero Absolute
2. Eat Hay Run
3. Les
Huh – seems like all the most likely winners who already have raced landed on the also-eligible list. This seems like a spot in which a first-timer could make an impact, and we’ll see if that can happen with ZERO ABSOLUTE. Liam’s Map has turned into quite a useful sire of grass horses, and this filly has been breezing, without interruption, since 2/8 at Payson. Hard to imagine she’s not fit enough to show what she has. Three work videos – two with once-started (she ran poorly) Tammy’s Kiss, who could not hang with ZA, and one with the experienced dirt horse Kalahari Dreams, who has gotten all the way up to a 94 Beyer Speed Figure – thus, no shame getting outworked by him, especially if she wants grass. EAT HAY RUN will have a poor outside post if he can draw in, but also has the positional pace to get into a decent spot before the first turn. Doubt there’s vast upside here after two starts but both were good enough to win this. There’s LESs to go on with another first-timer, LES, than with Zero Absolute, but the trainer has won before with firsters in turf routes. Les has gotten in plenty of work, is by good grass sire Medaglia d’Oro, and dam’s best offspring the useful grass route horse Miranda Rights.
Seventh Race
1. Flyin Private
2. Bird the Legend
3. Frosted Bull
FLYIN PRIVATE’s four races into the Jan. 4 claim all good enough to win this, and after two for the barn that claimed him, he was taken again April 19. Bought for $16K, freshened, runs back for $20K with that contending older form. Has ample pace to get into a decent spot and the morning-line odds would be more than fair. BIRD THE LEGEND struggled when stretched from debut sprint win to a second-start route; now back sprinting, and while B Cox barn drops down to $20K, which is fairly sharp, it’s still a drop that, given purchase price and race history, makes some sense beyond strictly trying to lose the horse. He does look limited in terms of being able to make his own race but I anticipate a contending if not winning performance. FROSTED BULL hasn’t raced since December – and that might be a good thing. Has the look of a horse in need of a reset – which he gets here for new barn on new circuit. That’s a quietly suggestive three-work pattern into the comeback run.
Ninth Race
1. Ashley’s Archer
2. Steel
3. Lazlo
ASHLEY’S ARCHER based on the first and second starts of his career probably always was meant to be a grass horse, but he’s Ontario-bred and thus got wrapped up into the rich synthetic and dirt opportunities in Canada last year. Just not a great season for development. I think he’s on the right track now. A very decent and troubled fourth in comeback run two back at GP, and after racing too aggressively, they gave him his head and let him lead last time – went too fast, still held well for third. Am guessing that he has learned some lessons and will this time put his pace to better use – namely, getting over from an outside draw and rating more kindly with a clean pressing / stalking trip. I doubt STEEL would handle turf and I doubt he is meant for turf, but I don’t doubt that he will race very competitively if this rains onto the main track. Went way too deep down into the LAZLO rabbit hole – but at least feel I have an understanding of this compact fellow! He has a high head carriage that can make it look like he’s pulling harder than he actually is – but, at the same time, until recently he pulled much too hard. Blinkers off three back is probably an overdue move. He might have won that 1 1/2-mile TP contest with a cleaner trip, and he had even worse trouble last out at KEE – even when clear of the worst trouble, the one horse in front of him shifted into his path. Even on an arc of improvement, he still lacks that true late punch that would make me trust him more. I also think he’ll be lower than the morning line.
Tenth Race
1. Army Chic
2. Diagram
3. Spill the Sugar
ARMY CHIC has made two starts, both on grass, the first mildly encouraging, the more recent quite poor – and I just wonder if she’s actually a dirt horse. No work video but fast work times -whatever means, which often is nothing. She does show a $10K purchase price and barn having a good year takes the trouble to ship from Ohio for this small drop into $50K maiden-claiming. Didn’t seem like DIAGRAM really cared for a sloppy track last out while returning from a very long break – she coughed up her lead even earlier than usual. Connections keep the faith coming right back for another $50K try. She figures to hold the lead at the furlong grounds, but can she hold it to the wire? Maybe this time! Feel like Diagram’s stablemate SPILL THE SUGAR has a meaningfully better race in her than the sloppy Lone Star debut. She runs for more than twice the purse here despite dropping from MSW competition.
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