The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, May 25, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 33-14 SU (+13.20 units, ROI: 28.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-123 at PIT)

TEXAS letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. LA Angels: 8-27 record (22.9%) for -18.21 units, ROI: -52%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-136 vs HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 142-183 for -38.05 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+105 vs TB), KANSAS CITY (+105 vs NYY), SAN DIEGO (+105 vs PHI)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 93-74 start for -5.12 units and an ROI of -3.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-114 at CWS), NY METS (-162 vs CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-137 vs AZ)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 33-42 for -12.26 units and an ROI of -16.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-136 vs HOU), SEATTLE (-118 at ATH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 111-84 start for -12.75 units and an ROI of -6.5%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-126 at BAL), MILWAUKEE (-230 vs STL), NY METS (-162 vs CIN), TORONTO (-163 vs MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 57-69 for +8.71 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+187 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+144 at CLE), HOUSTON (+113 at TEX), COLORADO (+266 at LAD)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 25-11 for -0.82 units and an ROI of -2.3%.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-230 vs STL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 26-16 but for -13.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-339 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 102-118 for -4.32 units. However, it did get back +6.33 units in the last two weeks alone.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+105 vs PHI)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 61-75 start for -7.13 units (ROI -5.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 27-35 for -5.76 units and an ROI of -9.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – KANSAS CITY (+105 vs NYY), ARIZONA (+114 at SF), WASHINGTON (+144 at CLE)
3-games – HOUSTON (+113 at TEX)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 470-376 for +38.79 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-114 at CWS), HOUSTON (+113 at TEX), MIAMI (+135 at TOR)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 232-174 for +19.76 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-126 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-123 at PIT), MINNESOTA (-114 at CWS), NY YANKEES (-126 at KC), PHILADELPHIA (-126 at SD), SEATTLE (-118 at ATH)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 142-183 for -38.05 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+105 vs TB), KANSAS CITY (+105 vs NYY), SAN DIEGO (+105 vs PHI)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 401-339 but for -79.02 units and an ROI of -10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-162 vs CIN), CLEVELAND (-174 vs WSH), TEXAS (-136 vs HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 422-372 record for +46.46 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+134 at NYM), MINNESOTA (-114 at CWS), HOUSTON (+113 at TEX), ARIZONA (+114 at SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2062-1956 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.03 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+114 at SF)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2087-2660 (44%) for -270.40 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON, COLORADO

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 630-523 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.89 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, NY METS, MILWAUKEE

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 94-142 SU (-26.71 units, ROI: -11.3%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+134 at NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 99-183 (-64.61 units, ROI: -22.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-123 at PIT)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 41-77 in their last 118 tries (-20.42 units, ROI: -17.3%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-123 at PIT)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 33-14 SU (+13.20 units, ROI: 28.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-123 at PIT)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +266 (+35 diff), SAN DIEGO +105 (+30), ATHLETICS -102 (+23), ST LOUIS +187 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), AZ-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.6), WSH-CLE OVER 8 (+0.5), CHC-PIT OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-1.2), COL-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5)

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Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) ST LOUIS (29-22) at (902) MILWAUKEE (30-20)
Trend: MIL is 11-4 (+8.21 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs STL)

(903) CINCINNATI (27-25) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (22-31)
Trend: CIN is 17-21 (-10.66 units) vs teams with a losing record with starter Nick Lodolo in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+134 at NYM)
Trend: NYM is 2-11 (-9.61 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-1.5 vs CIN)

(905) ARIZONA (28-24) at (906) SAN FRANCISCO (22-31)
Trend: SF is 3-8 (-4.77 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-137 vs AZ)

(907) CHICAGO-NL (29-24) at (908) PITTSBURGH (27-26)
Trend: CHC is 8-19 (-12.72 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at PIT)

(909) PHILADELPHIA (26-27) at (910) SAN DIEGO (31-21)
Trend: SD is 16-3 (+12.69 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+105 vs PHI)

(913) TAMPA BAY (34-16) at (914) BALTIMORE (23-30)
Trend: BAL is 6-13 (-8.59 units) in the last 19 Home Divisional games with starter Kyle Bradish
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+105 vs TB)

(917) NEW YORK-AL (31-22) at (918) KANSAS CITY (22-31)
Trend: Under the total is 13-4-1 (+8.60 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-KC (o/u at 9)

(921) SEATTLE (25-29) at (922) ATHLETICS (27-26)
Trend: ATH is 22-9 (+10.66 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+1.5 vs SEA)

(923) WASHINGTON (27-27) at (924) CLEVELAND (32-23)
Trend: WSH is 21-7 (+11.73 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at CLE)

(925) MIAMI (25-29) at (926) TORONTO (25-28)
Trend: Over the total is 15-3-2 (+11.70 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-TOR (o/u at 7.5)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CINCINNATI, SAN DIEGO, ATHLETICS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-KC

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

MIAMI    
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 11-22 (33.3%) -9.67 units, ROI: -29.3%     
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+135 at TOR)

NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 26-11 (70.3%) +9.61 units, ROI: 26%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-126 at KC)

TEXAS    
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 8-27 (22.9%) -18.21 units, ROI: -52%  
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-136 vs HOU)

WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 10-26 (27.8%) -18.42 units, ROI: -51.2%     
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+144 at CLE)

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Monday, May 25 appeared first on VSiN.