Today we celebrate Memorial Day with a 13 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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5:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-135, 7.5)
The Diamondbacks (28-24) just took three of four against the Rockies, winning yesterday’s series finale 9-1 as -200 home favorites. Similarly, the Giants (22-31) just won two of three against the White Sox, taking yesterday’s series finale 8-5 as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Diamondbacks hand the ball to righty Merrill Kelly (4-3, 5.71 ERA) and the Giants turn to fellow righty Landon Roupp (5-4, 3.27 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -145 home favorite and Arizona a +125 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Snakes getting plus money, dropping the line away from San Francisco (-145 to -135) and toward Arizona (+125 to +115).
At DraftKings, Arizona is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road dog.
The Diamondbacks have betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
Divisional dogs off a win, like the Snakes here, are 53-50 (52%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Arizona has the better bats, posting a .313 OBP, .404 slug and 239 runs scored compared to San Francisco posting a .295 OBP, .387 slug and 195 runs scored.
Kelly has posted a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts (all wins), allowing only 5 earned runs in 22 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Roupp has posted a 4.58 ERA in his last four starts (all losses), giving up 10 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched.
6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 7.5) at San Diego Padres
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Phillies (26-27) just lost two of three against the Guardians, losing yesterday’s series finale 3-1 as -105 home dogs. On the other hand, the Padres (31-21) just took two of three against the Athletics but failed to complete the sweep, dropping yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as -175 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies tap lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-4, 4.85 ERA) and the Padres go with righty Randy Vasquez (5-3, 2.96 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 road favorite and San Diego a +110 home dog.
Sharps have sided with the plus-money Padres at home, dropping the line away from Philadelphia (-130 to -125) and toward San Diego (+110 to +105).
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 49% of moneyline bets and 59% of moneyline dollars. Meanwhile, Circa is showing over 90% of moneyline bets on San Diego, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support from the Vegas sharps.
The Padres are 13-7 (65%) with a 24% ROI off a loss this season, the 6th most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
San Diego is 8-2 in Vasquez’s ten starts this season.
The Padres have the edge in the bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.16 (6th best in MLB) compared to 3.99 for the Phillies (16th).
9:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-115, 10.5) at Athletics
The Mariners (25-29) just dropped two of three against the Royals, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-6 as -125 road favorites. Similarly, the Athletics (27-26) just lost two of three against the Padres but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as +145 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners start righty Luis Castillo (1-5, 6.41 ERA) and the Athletics counter with fellow righty Aaron Civale (5-1, 3.31 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -120 road favorite and the Athletics a +100 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the home dog A’s, as the line has moved away from the Mariners (-120 to -115) and toward the Athletics (+100 to -105).
At DraftKings, the A’s are receiving 52% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the A’s are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
The A’s have betting system and correlative betting value as a divisional dog in a high total game (10.5), with the built in familiarity and more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Home dogs off a win, like the A’s here, are 67-61 (52%) with a 12% ROI this season. Divisional dogs off are 53-50 (51%) with a 16% ROI this season.
The Athletics have the better bats, hitting .249 with a .331 OBP, .393 slug and 232 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .225 with a .315 OBP, .375 slug and 218 runs scored.
Castillo has posted a 7.83 ERA in his last five starts, giving up 20 earned runs in 23 innings pitched. Seattle is 1-6 in his last seven starts.
Meanwhile, Civale has posted a 2.77 ERA in his last five starts (four of them wins), allowing only 8 earned runs in 26 innings pitched.
The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Monday May 25th appeared first on VSiN.

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