Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:45 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Diamondbacks (30-24) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 6-2 as +110 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 7-5 as -105 road dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Diamondbacks start righty Michael Soroka (6-2, 3.27 ERA) and the Giants tap fellow righty Trevor McDonald (2-1, 4.76 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 road favorite and San Francisco a +100 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Snakes to complete the sweep, driving Arizona up from -120 to -125, with several shops reaching as high as -135 earlier this morning.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the short road chalk.
Arizona has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Snakes have the better bats, posting a .315 OBP, .406 slug and 252 runs scored compared to the Giants posting a .295 OBP, .390 slug and 202 runs scored.
Soroka has posted a 1.48 ERA in four May starts, giving up only 4 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, McDonald has a 6.75 ERA at home compared to 3.00 on the road.
Arizona is 12-5 (71%) with a 19% ROI as a favorite against sub .500 teams, the 3rd best chalk record against losing teams.
6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 8.5)
The Pirates (29-26) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 2-1 as +105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 12-1 as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (29-26) hand the ball to righty Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.20 ERA) and the Pirates counter with fellow righty Bubba Chandler (1-6, 4.79 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -115 home favorite and Chicago a -105 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have quietly sided with the Pirates laying short chalk at home, pushing Pittsburgh up from -115 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Pirates are receiving 62% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Pittsburgh is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Sweet spot home favorite priced -140 or less are 146-108 (58%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Pittsburgh has the more productive bats, hitting .252 with 270 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .236 with 255 runs scored.
The Pirates are hitting .278 at home (1st in MLB) and .253 at home (6th). Meanwhile, the Cubs are hitting .230 on the road (22nd) and .229 against righties (24th).
Taillon has posted a 6.53 ERA in four May starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched.
Conversely, Chandler has posted a 4.50 ERA in four May starts, giving up 9 earned runs in 18 innings pitched.
Pittsburgh is 15-13 at home. Chicago is 11-15 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-155, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Yankees (33-22) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 4-3 as -135 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 15-1 as -200 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Yankees send out righty Gerrit Cole (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Royals (22-33) turn to lefty Noah Cameron (2-3, 4.72 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -145 road favorite and Kansas City a +125 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Bronx Bombers to complete the sweep, driving New York up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 92% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is also taking in 89% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way Pro and Joe split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites -150 or more coming off a win, like the Yankees here, are 26-12 (68%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Yankees have additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
New York has the better bats, hitting .242 with a .333 OBP, .439 slug and 273 runs scored compared to Kansas City hitting .236 with a .311 OBP, .377 slug and 211 runs scored.
The Yankees also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.44 (11th in MLB) compared to 4.89 for the Royals (27th).
Cole is making his 2nd start of the season after allowing zero earned runs and only 2 hits over 6 innings in his season debut against the Rays.
The Royals are 1-7 in Cameron’s last eight starts.
New York is 16-13 on the road. Kansas City is 15-16 at home.
The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Wednesday May 27th appeared first on VSiN.

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