Another day on the diamond, as all 30 teams are set to take the field. Only 12 will be in action tomorrow, so it will be a much needed day off for the majority of the league, but they have to get through today’s games first. We could see some getaway day game specials in some places, as a lot of teams have minimal days off in May. We could also see some fireworks with some regression candidates and bad pitchers on the mound.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 27:

Diamondbacks vs. Giants Prediction

Embed from Getty Images

Pick: Giants +113

Michael Soroka and Trevor McDonald are the listed starters here, as we have the conclusion of this NL West series. The Diamondbacks have taken the first two games and now five in a row after sweeping San Francisco at home last week. The degree of difficulty goes up when Arizona visits Seattle this weekend and might be a good time to fade them, as their last 12 games will have been against Colorado and San Francisco.

But, that’s a discussion for Friday. Soroka enters with a 3.27 ERA, but a 4.42 xERA. He does have a 2.93 FIP, as he’s only allowed four homers in 55 innings with a 57/14 K/BB ratio, so there are a lot of nice numbers in the profile. To be honest, the high xERA is a little bit surprising with a 36.1% Hard Hit% and an 8.9% Barrel%, which are both solid. He may be able to keep out-sequencing the quality of his stuff, as he has just a 93 Stuff+ and none of his five pitches grade above average per that Eno Sarris & Friends pitch-grading system.

Soroka is a guy who has generated a below average SwStr% and has allowed a 90.9% Z-Contact%, so the K% is going to be dropping as we move forward. He is inducing a career-best 33.9% Chase Rate, but I’m not overly sold on that either. Right now, his best and most sustainable attribute looks to be his 85th percentile BB%, but the Giants walk less often than any other team in baseball. They’re a free-swinging, aggressive team. If Soroka’s xBA and xERA regression is to come, it’ll probably be against that type of offense.

McDonald is a super extreme ground ball guy. He’s a weird dude who stands just 6 feet tall, but has 69th percentile Extension. He ranks in the 99th percentile in GB% and 97th percentile in BB%. His slider and changeup have both shown swing-and-miss upside this season, but he’s a 60% sinker guy. As he works deeper into his career and learns the hitters more, I’d presume we see more non-sinkers, but his goal right now is to get guys to beat the ball into the ground.

He gave up seven runs on just three hits last time out, as he hit two guys to set up the fourth inning and then also walked in a run. It was an inning that spiraled out of control for a young guy. Otherwise, he allowed five runs on 16 hits in his first 19 innings of the season.

The Diamondbacks deserve to be favored here, but I don’t think by this much. Both bullpens are well-rested and I think this is more of a coin flip than the line implies.

Braves vs. Red Sox Prediction

Pick: Braves -109

The Braves drew first blood in this interleague series with last night’s 7-6 win and they’ll be looking for at least a series victory here with Bryce Elder on the hill against Connelly Early. This one is lined as a virtual toss-up, which makes sense, but there are some factors tilting me towards the Braves side.

The biggest one is Early’s contact management numbers. He has a 3.33 ERA with a 4.68 xERA and a 4.73 FIP. His .252 BABIP and 86.9% LOB% look rather precarious with a 13.2% Barrel% and a 42.8% Hard Hit%. After holding opponents homerless in his first three starts, he’s allowed nine homers in his last seven starts, including two in each of his last two starts, including one against the Braves. Early is going on some extra rest here, so we’ll see if that helps or throws him out of rhythm.

Regardless, the Braves have a K% around 20% against LHP on the season, so expect a lot of bat-to-ball out of their lineup here and that’s where the negative regression could set in. That .252 BABIP doesn’t include the nine homers, since those aren’t balls in play, but he’s definitely gotten fortunate. He ranks in the 28th percentile in xERA, 47th percentile in xBA at .244, and doesn’t actually generate a lot of swings and misses, so his K% is also another area of concern.

Admittedly, I and many others have concerns about Elder as well, as he has a 1.97 ERA with a 2.99 xERA and a 3.28 FIP over 68.2 innings of work. His .227 BABIP and 82.5% LOB% are both areas of worry, but, unlike Early, he’s limited hard contact effectively with a 3.7% Barrel% and a 37.9% Hard Hit%. Elder’s reinvented pitch mix has been a difference maker this season and he’s been able to get more chase and more weak contact.

The Braves had Monday off and didn’t use any of their high-leverage arms on Saturday or Sunday, so the bullpen is in fine shape. Atlanta’s simply playing way better than Boston right now as well, so combine that with Early’s batted ball numbers against and the power potential of the Atlanta lineup and it’s a worthwhile investment.

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction

Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+104)

We’ve got Gerrit Cole on the bump for the second time this season and Noah Cameron for the 10th, as the Yankees look to polish off a sweep of the Royals. They won 4-3 with a blown save from Lucas Erceg in Game 1 and then won 15-1 in Game 2. They’ll draw another lefty here after pummeling Bailey Falter for seven runs on nine hits yesterday. While it is a better lefty in Cameron, the Yankees are slashing .333/.397/.559 with a .414 wOBA against LHP over the last 14 days, .297/.377/.544 with a .397 wOBA over the last 30 days, and .252/.339/.476 with a league-leading .355 wOBA for the season.

Cole only had two strikeouts against three walks in his 2026 debut against the Rays, but also only allowed two hits in 22 batters over six shutout frames. He didn’t allow a Barrel and only allowed three hard-hit balls. He’s facing an objectively worse lineup tonight in the Royals, who are 25th in wOBA for the season at .297 (the Rays are eighth at .322). 

Cameron has a very difficult assignment here as a soft-tossing southpaw against this powerful Yankees lineup. He has a 4.72 ERA with a 4.97 xERA and a 3.60 FIP, as he’s only allowed five homers and hasn’t allowed a homer in five straight starts. However, when he did face the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this season, he allowed seven runs in four innings and a season-high three homers.

With yesterday’s blowout, the Yankees pen is well-rested and they have several big advantages here, including the pitching matchup for all nine innings and the lineup.

The post MLB Best Bets Today: Adam Burke’s Picks for Wednesday, May 27 appeared first on VSiN.