Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox 4:10 PM ET

Chris Sale Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-160 per DraftKings)

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The lone NL East matchup on the slate today features the Braves and Red Sox wrapping up their three-game series at Fenway Park. Atlanta will send veteran left-hander Chris Sale to the mound against his former club, and he has been absolutely dominant this season with a 1.89 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts through 62.0 innings pitched.

Despite the elite numbers, Sale has only surpassed 18.5 outs recorded in 4 of his 10 starts this season, which explains why the under still carries significant juice. Boston also profiles as a difficult matchup for him specifically, as several hitters in this Red Sox lineup have seen him extremely well historically, with three hitters batting over .600 against him.

Boston has also been one of the better teams in baseball against left-handed pitching this year, carrying a .273 team batting average against southpaws. Fenway Park can also force elevated pitch counts quickly due to its dimensions and offensive environment, especially against a lineup that consistently puts the ball in play.

While Sale has been incredible throughout May, this matchup feels more geared toward a shorter outing where Atlanta is cautious with workload and Boston forces him into tougher at-bats early.

Atlanta Braves Over 3.5 Runs (-130 per DraftKings)

Even after getting shut out yesterday, the Braves remain one of the more explosive offenses in baseball. Over their last 10 games, Atlanta has surpassed 3.5 runs in 6 contests, and this afternoon they get another favorable offensive environment at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Boston is expected to turn to Payton Tolle, who Atlanta already faced earlier this season. While the Braves only managed two runs in that outing, they saw a lot of pitches, which is important considering Tolle has been on a relatively short leash and low pitch count throughout the season.

If Atlanta is patient early, there is a strong chance they can force Boston into the bullpen by the middle innings.

The Braves have also been one of the better lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching this year, batting .251 against southpaws, which ranks 7th in MLB. With the combination of Fenway’s offensive setup, Atlanta’s depth against lefties, and Boston likely needing significant bullpen innings, this feels like a bounce-back offensive spot for the Braves despite yesterday’s quiet performance.