WNBA Picks

We had a great 3-1 night last night, with our lone loss coming on the Storm/Mystics total, where they combined for just 142 points days after combining for 182. It happens. Thankfully, it seems TSI is getting dialed in, as expected, and we’re currently on a nice 8-4 run after a miserable stretch prior. I’m feeling very good about where the model is. Spreads have been solid, and now totals are beginning to grade out as winners as well, so we’re in a good spot heading into June. Tonight, we have just two games, but they’re two huge ones: Dallas Wings hosting the Las Vegas Aces and the Golden State Valkyries hosting the Indiana Fever. Without further ado, here are the TSI projections for Thursday night.

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Dallas Wings (+4.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 177.5

Dallas has won four straight games, including three straight road games before this homestand, averaging 92 points per game in those contests. Vegas had their own win streak snapped by LA last week, and now begins a three-game road trip of their own. TSI projects Vegas -6 with a total of 176, so the model is expecting a score of something like 91-85. I think this is a good spot to back Vegas, as they’ve had a few days off to rest, they’re coming off a loss to a pseudo-rival, and the way they’ve been priced indicates this line should be higher, so we’re getting a discount on the road favorite here.

Bet: Aces -4.5 (Play to -5)

Golden State Valkyries (-1.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 167.5

We’ve seen this line flip from Indiana -1.5 to Golden State -1.5 and the total drop from 171.5 to 167.5. Both teams come into the game at 4-2, and this is a matchup of the TSI #1 offense (Indiana) vs the TSI #1 defense (Golden State). Indiana is scoring about 7.5 points more per game than their opponents allow on average; however, evening that out is the Valkyries’ defense that’s holding teams to 7.5 points under their typical output. TSI projects Indiana -3.5 here with a total of 169.5, so that implies a score of 86-83 in favor of the Fever. Feels strange to back to road favorites in a day, but the numbers are the numbers, so let’s do it. In Caitlin, we trust. 

Bet: Fever +1.5 (Play to pk)

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