Welcome to June! The early stage of the WNBA season is behind us, and we’re in the full swing of things as the calendar creeps towards the beginning of summer. We only had one game on Sunday, which was an Aces win at Golden State. Monday, we’ve got a doubleheader featuring the Dallas Wings hosting the Seattle Storm, and the Phoenix Mercury hosting the Minnesota Lynx. Here are the TSI projections for Monday night’s WNBA games.

Dallas Wings (-12) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 168

Embed from Getty Images

While Dallas has looked phenomenal at times so far this young season, they’re just 5-3, as parity has kind of been the theme so far this season in the WNBA. Seattle comes in at just 3-6 and got blown out by Toronto on Saturday afternoon. Dallas comes in at #1 in TSI offensive rating and #5 on defense, while Seattle is 14th on offense and 9th on defense, which helps explain this big spread. TSI projects Dallas -7.5 with a total of 168.5. I think the line has ballooned due to the last three games’ worth of data would favor Dallas by about 14, but it’s up for debate whether that’s two teams tending opposite directions or an indication we’re headed for some regression to the mean. Seattle has been a double-digit road dog once this season and covered against Indiana, and double-digit dogs are 4-3 ATS since May 14th. I’m going to lean Seattle, but there’s a play today that I like better than anything in this game.

Lean: Storm +12

Phoenix Mercury (+3.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 167.5

Minnesota is 7-1 ATS as the market has just constantly undervalued them with Napheesa Collier out recovering from surgery. Thankfully, we’ve backed them plenty of times, and they’ve been quite the cash cow so far for us. Phoenix has been abysmal since beating Vegas on opening day and is just 2-7 on the season, including 3-6 ATS and 1-3 ATS at home. Minnesota is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road so far. TSI projects Lynx -3 with a total of 167, but I have some formulas going as high as Minnesota -15 (projected outcome, not projected spread), so I’m still going to back the Lynx against an identity-less Phoenix team right now.

Bet: Lynx -3.5 or better

For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.

The post WNBA Picks Today: Odds, Game Previews, and Projections for Monday, June 1 appeared first on VSiN.