WNBA Picks

Another solid 2-1 night in the W extended the current June run to 22-9, thanks to some last-second buckets by the Mystics and Tempo to push their game Over, as well as Seattle hanging on to cover against the Valkyries. Saturday has a four-pack of games, featuring the Fever visiting the Sun, the Lynx visiting the Aces, the Fire hosting the Wings, and the Mercury hosting the Sparks. Here are the TSI projections for Saturday’s slate.

Connecticut Sun (+10) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 171

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Connecticut is winless in the month of June, losing by an average score of 90-83 in 4 games this month. Indiana has gone 3-1 so far in June but just 1-1 on the road in that span. Adjusting for opponent, Connecticut has been about seven points better at home than on the road this season, and as I’ve mentioned before, Indiana is seemingly a different team on the road (not complimentary). The Fever score nine points fewer per game on the road than they do at home, and have averaged just 79 points over their last three road games. TSI projects Indiana -10 with a total of 169.5, so I’m going to take the Under here.

Bet: Under 171 (Play to 170)

Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 174.5

This is by far the most exciting game of the day, and I can’t wait to watch. Vegas is on a five-game winning streak, winning by an average of 11 points per game in that stretch. Minnesota is also a buzzsaw, winning eight straight by an average of 19 points per game (!). So, with two juggernauts battling, who gets the edge? Even taking out the Phoenix blowout on opening night, Vegas hasn’t been as good at home as they’ve been on the road, and still averages 90 points allowed in those non-Mercury games (allowed 99 to Phoenix). But, in their current overall form on this win streak, they’ve been about eight points above league average from a power rating standpoint. The issue is that Minnesota has been about 16 points better than league average on their current win streak. But as we know, we have to take all of the data into account, which leads TSI to projecting Vegas -4 with a total of 175.5. Honestly, I couldn’t fade this Minnesota team right now, especially against the Aces at home. Minnesota hasn’t lost a road game this year and has a power rating of +12 in those games. I’m going to pass and just enjoy watching A’ja Wilson and Olivia Miles put on a show.

Portland Fire (+6) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 170

Portland has seemingly lost its offense here lately. They’re on a four-game losing streak, on which they’ve averaged just 77.5 points per game, while allowing 92 per game. They’re taking on Dallas, who has won eight of their last nine by an average of 90-79. Somehow, Portland has been about a point worse at home than on the road; conversely, in Dallas’s last three non-Minnesota road games, they’ve posted a power rating of +16. Not great news for a Portland team hoping to end a losing streak. TSI only projects Dallas -3.5, though, with a total of 173.5. The Wings’ road games have averaged 11 points more per game than their home games, so I do like the Over here, as all of my formulas are in the 170s with some going 175+. I think there’s a world where Dallas goes for 100+ in this game, so even if Portland’s offense continues to struggle, I think this can still cash.

Bet: Over 170 (Play to 172)

Phoenix Mercury (+1.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 177.5

Phoenix is just 2-8 in their previous 10 games, losing by an average score of 86-78. LA has won back-to-back games now that Kelsey Plum is back, but they’ve also been fortunate to play Portland and Seattle in those games. Phoenix has dealt with a brutal June schedule, playing several games in a short amount of time and being on the road for most of them. This is the first of a 3-game home stand for them, so I’d expect their metrics to regress back to the mean because they’ve got some wonky numbers due to the fact that 40% of their home games have been against the aforementioned Lynx buzzsaw. TSI projects the Mercury as 2.5 point favorites with a total of 177. I’m going to pass here, because although TSI likes Phoenix, there is plenty of statistical support for LA in my dataset, so I don’t feel great about either side.

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