The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 2, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 20-3 (+16.40 units) in his last 23 starts against below .500 opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-163 vs COL)
BALTIMORE letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Toronto: 12-21 record (36.4%) for -8.23 units, ROI: -24.9%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+113 at BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 479-382 for +41.74 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-105 at HOU)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 104-81 start for -2.52 units and an ROI of -1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-136 vs BAL), MIAMI (-102 at WSH), TEXAS (-112 at STL), LA ANGELS (-163 vs COL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 70-83 for +9.33 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-119 vs MIA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 28-15 but for -8.33 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-266 vs SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 112-135 for -10.61 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+123 at PHI), MIAMI (-102 at WSH), CLEVELAND (+203 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+104 at CIN), PITTSBURGH (-105 at HOU), NY METS (+123 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 76-88 start for -4.95 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 34-43 for -7.29 units and an ROI of -9.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BALTIMORE (+113 at BOS)
3+ games – SEATTLE (-149 vs NYM)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 479-382 for +41.74 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-105 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 143-187 for -41.07 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR HOUSTON vs PIT (-114 CURRENTLY)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 406-345 but for -81.88 units and an ROI of -10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-149 vs SD), BOSTON (-136 vs BAL), ATLANTA (-120 vs TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-131 vs ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 428-378 record for +45.58 units and an ROI of 5.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+113 at BOS), PITTSBURGH (-105 at HOU)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 451-434 (51%) for +18.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-125 vs KC)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2077-1967 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.18 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, BOSTON, NY YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, COLORADO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,104-2,679 (44%) for -272.13 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO, TEXAS, LA DODGERS, NY METS
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 96-142 SU (-24.62 units, ROI: -10.3%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+135 at LAA)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 166-90 SU (+40.36 units, ROI: 15.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-119 vs MIA)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 189-225 SU record for +37.98 units and an ROI of 9.2% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+214 at MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5 games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 188-154 (+12.38 units, ROI: 3.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-149 vs NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND +203 (+41 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +214 (+40), SAN DIEGO +123 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA -120 (+31 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -131 (+28), LA DODGERS -120 (+21), TAMPA BAY -144 (+20), BOSTON -136 (+16), LA ANGELS -163 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEX-STL OVER 7 (+1.0), SD-PHI OVER 8 (+0.5), BAL-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN DIEGO (32-26) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (30-29)
Trend: PHI is 27-9 (+12.68 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-155 vs SD)
(903) MIAMI (27-34) at (904) WASHINGTON (31-30)
Trend: Over the total is 20-4-3 (+15.60 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-WSH (o/u at 9)
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (23-37) at (906) MILWAUKEE (36-21)
Trend: Under the total is 19-10-2 (+8.00 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (38-22) at (908) ARIZONA (32-27)
Trend: Mike Soroka’s teams are 6-15 (-9.82 units) in his last 21 starts in the -120 to +115 line range
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-101 vs LAD)
(909) DETROIT (23-38) at (910) TAMPA BAY (36-21)
Trend: DET is 9-24 (-17.62 units) in road games this season
Trend: TB is 21-7 (+12.15 units) in home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-144 vs DET)
(911) BALTIMORE (28-32) at (912) BOSTON (25-33)
Trend: Over the total is 5-1 when Shane Baz starts against Boston in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-BOS (o/u at 8.5)
(917) KANSAS CITY (23-37) at (918) CINCINNATI (30-29)
Trend: KC is 2-13 (-13.44 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+104 at CIN)
(919) TORONTO (29-31) at (920) ATLANTA (40-20)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 9-14 (-3.47 units) in his last 23 starts as a road night underdog
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-101 at ATL)
(923) ATHLETICS (28-31) at (924) CHICAGO-NL (32-28)
Trend: CHC is 17-27 (-7.23 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs ATH)
(927) COLORADO (23-38) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (23-38)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 20-3 (+16.40 units) in his last 23 starts against below .500 teams
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-163 vs COL)
(929) NEW YORK-NL (26-34) at (930) SEATTLE (32-29)
Trend: Under the total is 20-9-1 (+10.10 units) in NYM road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: SEA is 11-22 (-9.57 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs NYM)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #23: Toronto at Atlanta, Tue 6/2-Thu 6/4
Trend: ATLANTA is 4-13 (23.5%, -12.44 units) in the last 17 games against Toronto (since mid-2020)
– The ROI on this trend is -73.2%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-120 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-144 vs DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): ST LOUIS (-108 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-252 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, COLORADO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-149 vs SD), BOSTON (-136 vs BAL), HOUSTON (-114 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-WSH (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 12-21 (36.4%) -8.23 units, ROI: -24.9%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+113 at BOS)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Tuesday, June 2 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment