Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Friday’s Race 10, a $500,000 event for 3-year-old fillies, goes to post at 5:08 p.m. Eastern and drew just five runners, four of whom exit the Kentucky Oaks. The two handicappers split on top. Beer sides with the favorite, undefeated Oaks winner No. 5 Always a Runner, while Aragona, expecting too short a price, turns to No. 2 Counting Stars.
The favorite and the price question: No. 5 Always a Runner
Always a Runner enters undefeated, 3 for 3 after winning the Kentucky Oaks at this 1 1/8-mile trip, and she owns the field’s top Beyer Speed Figure. Trained by Chad Brown, with Jose Ortiz riding, she is the 4-5 morning-line favorite. Beer makes her his top selection: “I really do think she’s probably going to win here.”
Aragona agrees she was best in the Oaks but not by much and pegs her fair price closer to 8-5 or 9-5, more than he expects to get.
The Acorn sets up as a trip-handicapping exercise, Aragona says, with little obvious early speed. No. 4 Maximum Offer is the lone need-the-lead type at 15-1, but Beer doubts she gets an easy lead with the contenders inside her likely to press.
Embed from Getty ImagesAragona’s top pick: No. 2 Counting Stars
Counting Stars, trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., came out of the Oaks with a 92 Beyer and sat closest to an honest pace, tucked along the inside. Aragona puts her on top, calling her underrated coming out of that race. He saw a few minor details working against her, and she “galloped out best after that,” striding home strongest once she found room.
Beer is less certain what to make of her Oaks effort, citing a late surge he could not fully explain.
The tougher-trip horses: No. 1 Prom Queen and No. 3 Meaning
Prom Queen drew the rail and carries the field’s roughest Oaks trip – she broke poorly, got squeezed back, and never found a clean run. Beer ranks her second and says he would bet her if he were going against the favorite, expecting a more forward ride with Flavien Prat back aboard. Trained by Brad Cox, she won twice at Gulfstream before the Oaks.
Meaning, trained by Michael McCarthy, ran second in the Oaks and was the one who forced the issue, swinging out to challenge the leaders. Both handicappers placed her third. Beer rates the effort highly, saying she ran a winning race that day. Aragona adds that in a small field with a soft pace, any stamina question at 1 1/8 miles may not surface.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 2 Counting Stars
No. 5 Always a Runner
No. 3 Meaning
No. 1 Prom Queen
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 5 Always a Runner
No. 1 Prom Queen
No. 3 Meaning
No. 2 Counting Stars
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get DRF’s Complete Belmont Stakes Betting Package with PPs, Clocker Reports & Expert Picks
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
The post Acorn Stakes at Saratoga: Picks, preview, and post time for Friday, June 5 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment