The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: CHC is 17-35 (-15.55 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at COL)

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 249-168 in their last 417 tries (+32.83 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+122 at NYM)

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN STRENGTH RATINGS: TEX-KC UNDER 10.5 (projection has total at 9.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 117-91 start for -3.25 units and an ROI of -1.6 after last week brought in +6.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-148 vs STL), DETROIT (-126 vs MIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI. of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an 85-101 start for -9.25 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI. on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 38-47 for -7.08 units and an ROI of -8.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – COLORADO (+128 vs CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs ATL)
3+ games – ST LOUIS (+122 at NYM)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 440-467 but for +24.94 units and an ROI of 2.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-155 at COL)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 384-431 but for +88.44 units and an ROI of 10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+105 at DET)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 456-437 (51.1%) for +19.69 units of profit. This represents an ROI. of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-148 vs STL)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2095-1983 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.96 units. This represents an ROI. of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+141 vs LAD), ST LOUIS (+122 at NYM)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2121-2693 (44.1%) for -267.99 units and an ROI. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-118 at BAL), ARIZONA (+100 at MIA), ATLANTA (-119 at CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-155 at COL)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 99-144 SU (-23.14 units, ROI: -9.5%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+128 vs CHC)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 223-255 SU but for +48.13 units (ROI: 10.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+128 vs CHC)

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MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 249-168 in their last 417 tries (+32.83 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+122 at NYM)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT -126 (+18 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHC-COL OVER 11 (+0.5), SEA-BAL OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEX-KC UNDER 10.5 (-1.0), STL-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.5), MIN-DET UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) ARIZONA (34-33) at (952) MIAMI (33-35)
Trend: Merrill Kelly’s teams have a 1-6 record when he starts vs Miami Marlins in his career (5.59 ERA)
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+100 at MIA)

(953) ST LOUIS (37-28) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (29-38)
Trend: NYM is 13-17 (-11.18 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-148 vs STL)

(955) CHICAGO-NL (34-34) at (956) COLORADO (26-42)
Trend: CHC is 17-35 (-15.55 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at COL)

(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (43-25) at (958) PITTSBURGH (35-33)
Trend: PIT is 12-27 (-11.24 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PIT is 5-12 (-9.98 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+141 vs LAD)

(959) MINNESOTA (31-38) at (960) DETROIT (28-40)
Trend: Over the total is 24-13-4 (+9.70 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 9.5)

(963) SEATTLE (36-33) at (964) BALTIMORE (32-37)
Trend: Over the total is 17-9-1 (+7.10 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BAL (o/u at 8.5)

(965) ATLANTA (45-23) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (36-31)
Trend: CWS is 22-11 (+12.61 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs ATL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): ARIZONA (+100 at MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-119 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-126 vs MIN), KANSAS CITY (-118 vs TEX)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, June 16)

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Thursday, June 11 appeared first on VSiN.