Sweden vs Tunisia | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F | Sunday, June 14 | 10PM EST | Estadio BBVA | Monterrey

Sweden (-110) | Draw (+245) | Tunisia (+330)
Over 2.5 Goals (+125) | Under 2.5 Goals (-155)
Sweden -0.5 (-120) | Tunisia +0.5 (-115)

We round off this weekend’s action in Monterrey with Sweden taking on Tunisia at 10PM EST Sunday in an opener that neither side can afford to lose. With group favorites Netherlands and Japan still to come, this game represents both sides’ best chance of picking up three points and advancing to the knockout stage.

That’s a feat Tunisia haven’t achieved in seven World Cup appearances, and they’ll be hoping the expanded 48-team format finally opens the door. They’ll need to replicate the defensive discipline that made them the first team in World Cup history to qualify without conceding a single goal — no small ask under Sabri Lamouchi, who took over in January and has had just four friendly matches to get to grips with this squad.

Sweden, meanwhile, arrive with a reputation in need of repair. They finished bottom of their European qualifying group without a win, earning a play-off spot only through their UEFA Nations League standing. Graham Potter’s appointment in October 2025 has brought a clear tactical framework around the squad’s considerable attacking talent, but ultimately it was individual brilliance that got them here — Victor Gyökeres delivering a hat-trick against Ukraine and an 88th-minute winner against Poland to book Blågult an unlikely spot in North America.

Three points on Sunday night is a potential springboard out of Group F into the knockout phase. Dropped points might end everything.

SWEDEN TEAM NEWS

The biggest news heading into Sunday revolves around Alexander Isak, who appears to have put this season’s fitness issues firmly behind him. The Liverpool striker announced himself in style with an absolute worldie in the 3-1 warm-up defeat to Norway, and he’ll be motivated to show the world why the record-breaking transfer fee Liverpool paid for him is justified. Gyökeres, arguably their most dangerous weapon, also got on the scoresheet in the final warm-up and arrives in form having helped Arsenal to the Premier League title. With these two paired up top, Sweden have a forward line that can trouble anyone.

Victor Lindelöf anchors a backline that is solid but light on tournament experience — a consequence of missing both the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024. Twenty-year-old Lucas Bergvall was one of the few bright spots in an abysmal Tottenham Hotspur season, and he’s pushing for a starting role — his energy and dynamism offering something different to central midfield. The absence of Dejan Kulusevski, sidelined all season with a severe right patella cartilage injury, is the one genuine hole in an otherwise exciting attacking setup.

Embed from Getty Images

Sweden Predicted Lineup 3-4-1-2

Manager: Graham Potter

GK: K. Nordfeldt
CB: I. Hien | CB: V. Lindelöf (C) | CB: G. Lagerbielke
RWB: A. Bernhardsson | CM: J. Karlström | CM: Y. Ayari | LWB: G. Gudmundsson
AMF: B. Nygren
CF: A. Isak | CF: V. Gyökeres

TUNISIA TEAM NEWS

Tunisia enter this tournament with no notable injury concerns and a fully available squad — though that may create as many selection headaches as it solves for Lamouchi, who took over in January following the disappointing Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) exit. With just four friendly matches under his belt, the bigger unknown isn’t the personnel — it’s how this group performs and fits together under a coach who is still getting to know his own players.

Bundesliga fans will be all too familiar with Eintracht Frankfurt’s Ellyes Skhiri and FC Union Berlin’s Rani Khedira. Skhiri is the heartbeat of this Tunisia side, dictating tempo and driving the team from the middle of the park. Khedira, whose older brother Sami lifted the World Cup with Germany in 2014, provides the defensive anchor alongside him — tactically disciplined and rarely out of position.

The return of Anis Ben Slimane from injury broadens Lamouchi’s options in midfield, while Montassar Talbi commands the backline and will be central to keeping Gyökeres and Isak quiet on Sunday.

Tunisia Predicted Lineup 4-3-3

Manager: Sabri Lamouchi

GK: A. Chamakh
RB: Y. Valery | CB: O. Rekik | CB: M. Talbi | LB: A. Abdi
CM: E. Skhiri (C) | CM: H. Mejbri | CM: R. Khedira
RW: I. Gharbi | CF: F. Chaouat | LW: E. Achouri

MATCH BREAKDOWN

Tunisia arrive in the middle of a managerial transition. The federation deemed Sami Trabelsi’s historic qualifying campaign wasn’t enough to save him after a round of 16 AFCON exit to Mali — a result made all the more damaging given Tunisia had a man advantage from the 26th minute.

Lamouchi accepted the job with four friendlies to prepare for this World Cup, and the results have done little to inspire confidence: a draw with Canada, a defeat to Austria, and a 5-0 thrashing by Belgium in their final warm-up — their only goal across all four games coming in a 1-0 win over Haiti. Gharbi’s red card in the 62nd minute against Belgium didn’t help, but the gulf in quality was evident way before he walked. The qualifying record is real — but the man who built it isn’t in the dugout anymore.

Potter’s side head to Monterrey in a good moment, buoyed by their heroics in the UEFA play-offs. How they got here no longer matters. What matters is that Isak and Gyökeres both got on the scoresheet in the warm-ups and the partnership looks promising. Tunisia’s defensive identity is real — but it came up short, way short, against Belgium.

THE BET

Both teams know this is a must-win game, but only Sweden have the quality to do anything about it. Tunisia’s spotless qualifying record deserves a closer inspection — they faced Namibia, Liberia, Equatorial Guinea, Malawi, and São Tomé and Príncipe. Not a single side ranked inside the top 100 in FIFA’s World Rankings. Equatorial Guinea were the only opponent to have qualified for AFCON 2025. This was a record built in a perfect storm of conditions, against opposition that can only dream of the attacking quality Gyökeres and Isak will bring on Sunday night.

At -110, I think the sportsbooks have made a big mistake with Sweden’s price. The 5-0 Belgium result wasn’t a fluke — it was a preview of what European sides can do to this defense, and Sweden will have similar success.

Pick: Sweden Moneyline -110

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