WNBA Picks

There was just one game last night in the WNBA, so sorry there was no article yesterday. The Liberty went into Las Vegas and got a double-digit win in the late night (ET) tip off. Tonight, we’ve got a 4-game slate, featuring the Mercury traveling to the Fever, the Mystics hosting the Lynx, the Sky hosting the Fire and the Dream heading west to take on the Valkyries.

Let’s get to the T Shoe Index projections for Wednesday:

Indiana Fever (-8.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 175.5

These teams just played two days ago, where the Fever won and covered, 86-77, after losing back-to-back games to Atlanta previously. Phoenix is just 1-5 in its last six games, but keeping games generally close as the average score has just been 85-83. TSI projects Indiana -7 with a total of 171.5 in this game. Indiana has been much better at home than on the road, averaging 10 more points per game offensively while the defense has remained consistent (not a compliment). Phoenix is an odd team that’s performed better on the road, allowing almost 12 points per game fewer on the road. Phoenix has actually been better from a game grade standpoint over the last three games, and I’m going to back them here. I also like the Under, as I think the Atlanta games have really inflated Indiana’s totals here in the short term, and Phoenix has only averaged 77 points per game on the road. 

Bet: Mercury +8.5 (play to +7.5)

Bet: Under 175.5 (Play to 173.5)

Washington Mystics (+9.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 168.5

The market seems to think Washington beating Minnesota last game may have awoken a monster, as this line has steamed from 6.5 to 9.5 towards Minnesota. Washington has been nine points better the last three games than its season average, so that either means they’ve turned a corner or they’re due for some serious regression here. They have been much better at home than on the road by about 7.5 points, although Minnesota has been two points better on the road than at home. TSI projects Minnesota -6 with a total of 167.5. Frankly, I agree with the market and think Minnesota may be out for blood in this game, so I’m going to pass altogether since TSI disagrees.

Chicago Sky (-3.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 170.5

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Chicago has lost six straight games by an average of 91-82, including back-to-back 1 point losses against the Wings and Liberty recently. Portland has won two of its last three and has been off for a week. TSI projects Chicago -4 with a total of 169.5 in this game, and in full transparency, I bet Chicago -1.5 and Over 168.5 yesterday, but at the current numbers I have no play. Chicago has been 6.5 points better than Portland over the last five games from a game grade standpoint, so they’d be my lean here but at this number it’s not an official play.

Golden State Valkyries (+2.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 165.5

Golden State is on its third game of a brutal three-game stretch, and they’ve lost back-to-back games to Minnesota and Vegas by an average score of 87-74. Atlanta has been scorching hot, winning 4 straight and averaging 104 points per game in the process. Atlanta has outplayed its average rating by about three points in the last three games, while Golden State has underperformed by about seven points, so I sense some regression coming for both sides. TSI does too, projecting Golden State -1.5 with a total of 168, so I’m backing the Valkyries at home, where they’ve been 5.5 points better than on the road and where Atlanta has been three points worse.

Bet: Valkyries +2.5 (Play to pk)

For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.

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