Introduction

After yet another lackluster season for the Atlanta Falcons in 2024, it appears that Michael Penix Jr. is set to be the starting quarterback going forward. Penix stepped in for the underperforming Kirk Cousins during the final three games of last season and showed impressive poise in the pocket, despite the limited sample size. Many bettors and fans are eager to see what the southpaw out of Washington can do this year—and in seasons to come.

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A Glance at 2024 and Breakout Potential

In his three starts at the end of the 2024 season, Michael Penix Jr. totaled 775 passing yards, 11 rushing yards, 4 combined touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. While those numbers are modest, the experience gives Penix valuable film and in-game reps to reference heading into 2025. He will have had a full offseason to work with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, providing time to further develop the offensive scheme. Additionally, as a left-handed quarterback, Penix presents a unique challenge for defensive coordinators—especially for teams that rarely face southpaw QBs within their division. That unfamiliarity could work in his favor.

A View of the Betting Opportunities

On DraftKings, Penix’s over/under for passing yards is currently set at 3,400.5 (over -110; under -110). Based on his 2024 pace, he would’ve finished with 4,391 yards over a full season—nearly 1,000 yards over the current line. If you believe Penix can make even marginal improvements and stay healthy, surpassing that total seems very achievable.

For those high on his breakout potential, there’s also intriguing long-shot value in the MVP market, with Penix currently listed at +6000. While it’s certainly a gamble, if the Falcons emerge as playoff contenders and manage to dethrone the Buccaneers in the NFC South, those odds will likely shorten dramatically.

Conclusion

As the 2025 NFL season draws closer, keep an eye on training camp reports out of Atlanta. With the offensive cast around Penix remaining largely unchanged, he’ll have the chance to build on existing chemistry and take a meaningful step forward. Of all the available futures, his passing yards prop looks particularly appealing. We’ll soon see what oddsmakers think of his touchdown potential as more markets open up.