Introduction

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Justin Herbert is entering his sixth year with the Los Angeles Chargers, and expectations for him are as high as they’ve ever been. Herbert has been a consistently solid quarterback—particularly in the regular season—but the biggest knock on him remains his inability to put together a strong playoff performance. Fortunately for the purpose of this article, we’re only focusing on Herbert’s regular season stats.

Last season, he threw for 3870 yards with 23 passing touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. Throughout the Herbert era, the Chargers’ biggest issues have been a shaky offensive line and a lack of consistent threats on the outside. Over the past few off-season’s, the front office has zeroed in on adding weapons at receiver and building offensive line depth through both the draft and free agency.

This year, Herbert will benefit from second-round draft pick Tre’ Harris, the return of Keenan Allen, and the addition of massive guard Mekhi Becton in free agency. This will likely be the best offensive line Herbert has had in his career, and the receiving corps now offers a promising mix of young talent and veteran experience. With these improvements, it’s vital for Herbert to deliver a standout season.

Let’s take a look at how different sportsbooks project Herbert for the 2025 regular season.

Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3600.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 3600.5 (over -115; under -115)
  • FanDuel: 3650.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3625.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 3650.5 (over -110; under -110)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 22.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 22.5 (over -105; under -125)
  • FanDuel: 22.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 22.5 (over even; under -130)
  • BetMGM: 22.5 (over -115; under -105)

The sportsbooks are generally aligned on both stat props. DraftKings is offering the most favorable odds for the over on passing yards, while BetMGM provides the best value for the under. As for passing touchdowns, each sportsbook has set the same line, with Bet365 offering the best value for the over and BetMGM once again offering the most favorable odds for the under.

The current passing yard projections are somewhat surprisingly low, considering Herbert has failed to surpass these marks only once in his career—during the 2023 season. The same trend holds true for the passing touchdown projections. Through five NFL seasons, Herbert has averaged 4218 passing yards and 27.4 touchdowns.

Conclusion

It seems head coach Jim Harbaugh is looking to establish a stronger rushing attack, which likely explains why the Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton and signed Najee Harris in free agency. That said, Herbert will still be slinging the rock as usual, and the Chargers continue to have a variety of threats in the passing game. The AFC West as a whole is shaping up to be an exciting division, and it will be fun to see whether Herbert can finally take the Chargers to the next level in 2025.