AFC East ATS Records & Trends Since 2020

Buffalo Bills

Coming in with the closest cover percentage to 50% in the AFC East, sportsbooks have been fairly sharp in setting lines for the Bills, who have a 54.4% cover rate since 2020 (50-42-3 record). The largest sample size showing where the Bills outperform expectations is in games against NFC opponents, where they cover 60.9% of the time (14-9-1 record).

Where the Bills fall short most often is as an away underdog and in playoff games. As an away underdog, they’ve covered just 42.9% of the time (6-8-0 record), and in playoff games, they’ve covered 41.7% (5-7-0 record) since 2020.

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins have posted the best record ATS (against the spread) in the AFC East since 2020, going 47-38-1 for a 55.3% cover rate. They tend to make the most hay in games where they have a rest disadvantage and in divisional matchups. In games with a rest disadvantage, the Dolphins are 9-4-1 (69.2%), and in division games they’re 20-10-1 (66.7%).

The only scenario where they’ve consistently underperformed is when they have a rest advantage, posting a 5-11-0 record (31.3%) in such games since 2020.

New England Patriots

New England is another middle-of-the-road team when it comes to covering the spread, meaning they haven’t been great to fade nor reliable to back. They have been below 50% ATS since 2020, posting a 36-46-3 record (43.9%).

Key takeaways from the trends show they’ve been relatively solid in covering when they’re at a rest disadvantage, going 10-8-0 (55.6%). On the opposite end, in games where they have a rest advantage, they’ve only covered 23.1% of the time (3-10-1). They’ve also been overvalued in NFC matchups, covering just 34.8% of the time (8-15-1).

It will be interesting to see if these trends continue under new head coach Mike Vrabel.

New York Jets

The New York Jets have not only had the worst record against the spread in the AFC East since 2020, but they also hold the worst record in the entire NFL during that time. With a 32-51-1 record (38.6%), the Jets have been the best team to fade.

Their trends closely mirror those of the New England Patriots: The Jets’ best ATS performance comes in games where they have a rest disadvantage, while their biggest struggles occur in games with a rest advantage and against NFC opponents. In games with a rest disadvantage, the Jets were exactly 50% ATS with a 7-7 record—the only category where they hit or exceeded 50%. In games with a rest advantage, they went 4-12-1 (25%), and against NFC teams, they posted a 5-18-1 record (21.7%).