Introduction

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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off yet another season that ended with a Super Bowl appearance. Mahomes is entering his ninth NFL season and his eighth as the full-time starter. While the Chiefs had a strong overall year, the offense often looked out of sync—particularly during the regular season. This resulted in Mahomes posting the fewest passing yards of his career as a starter and tying his career low in passing touchdowns. In 2024, he threw for 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns, marking his first season under 4,000 passing yards.

Part of the drop-off can be attributed to new pieces acclimating to the offense, such as rookie Xavier Worthy, and key injuries at skill positions—most notably Rashee Rice, who was lost for the season in Week 4, and Isiah Pacheco, who battled injuries throughout the year. As has been the case for years, the Chiefs remain the team everyone is chasing, especially in the AFC and the AFC West. The 2025 regular season could present Mahomes and Kansas City with their toughest divisional test in recent memory, creating a new challenge for the two-time MVP to navigate. He has the tools to meet it head-on, and the question now is whether he can bounce back from last year’s statistically modest regular season. Let’s see what the sportsbooks have to say.

Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 4050.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 4000.5 (over even; under -130)
  • FanDuel: 4000.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 4024.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 4050.5 (over -110; under -110)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 27.5 (over -115; under -105)
  • ESPN Bet: 27.5 (over -125; under -105)
  • FanDuel: 27.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 27.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 27.5 (over -115; under -105)

With someone as consistent as Mahomes has been over the years, sportsbooks have a similar outlook for him in 2025. For passing yards props, ESPN Bet offers the best odds for the over, while DraftKings and BetMGM have the best odds for the under. For passing touchdown projections, Bet365 has the best odds for the over, while DraftKings, ESPN Bet, and BetMGM share the best odds for the under.

In his seven seasons as the starter, Mahomes has averaged 4581 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. Based on current projections, he has surpassed the passing yards total in all but last season and has hit the passing touchdowns over in four of his seven seasons as a starter.

Conclusion

Year nine for Patrick Mahomes is shaping up to be one of his most exciting seasons yet. His longtime partner in crime, Travis Kelce, is entering the final stages of his career, so Mahomes will no doubt want to make this season count. He’ll also have a full offseason to build chemistry with his younger, less experienced receiving corps—a factor that could be significant for bettors eyeing the over on his season-long props.