Introduction

Entering his fifth season with the Jacksonville Jaguars, quarterback Trevor Lawrence is looking to take a big step forward. As with any highly drafted player, expectations are high, but with a few seasons under his belt, those early-career nerves should be long gone. Last season did not unfold as anticipated and was plagued by injuries, causing Lawrence to miss seven games. In the ten games he did play, he accumulated 2045 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, which would have put him on pace for 3476 yards and about 18 touchdowns over a full 17-game schedule. Even with that pace, however, it still would have been the lowest passing yardage total of his career.

This season, the Jaguars’ offense will look slightly different, with additions to the offensive line and a few new wide receivers, including highly anticipated rookie Travis Hunter. Encouragingly, it appears Hunter will focus most of his attention on playing receiver. While the outlook for the Jaguars’ offensive line isn’t great, even a slight improvement from last year could prove vital for Lawrence—and Jacksonville’s season as a whole. Let’s see where the sportsbooks expect Lawrence’s year to go.

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Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3700.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 3500.5 (over -125; under -105)
  • FanDuel: 3750.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3700.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 3650.5 (over -115; under -105)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 22.5 (over -115; under -105)
  • ESPN Bet: 21.5 (over -125; under -105)
  • FanDuel: 22.5 (over -106; under -125)
  • Bet365: 22.5 (over -130; under even)
  • BetMGM: 21.5 (over -140; under +115)

As you can see, there are plenty of diverse options to choose from for Lawrence. You can find value from both a yardage and odds perspective for his passing props. The best overall values for the passing yards over come from ESPN Bet, DraftKings, Bet365, or BetMGM, while the best value for the under can be found with DraftKings, FanDuel, or Bet365. The passing touchdowns market is a bit more clear-cut—FanDuel offers the best current value for the over, while Bet365 and BetMGM provide the best value for the under.

Through his first four NFL seasons, Lawrence has cleared the passing yards projection two or three times, depending on which line you use, but has only surpassed the passing touchdowns projection once. Over that span, he has averaged 3453 yards and 17.25 passing touchdowns.

Conclusion

This NFL season feels pivotal for Lawrence if he wants to establish himself as one of the league’s best. He’s had some solid years, but overall has been fairly middle of the pack. The good news is that, outside of the Texans, the rest of the AFC South is still trying to figure itself out—making this a prime opportunity for Lawrence and the Jaguars to take advantage.