Introduction

Tua Tagovailoa enters his 6th NFL season this year, all spent in a Miami Dolphins uniform. The biggest concern with Tua, especially in recent years, has obviously been the head injuries he has sustained, which have only allowed him to complete one full season in his NFL career.

When on the field, he has been highly effective, particularly in the creative offense designed by head coach Mike McDaniel. In just 11 games played last season, Tua threw for 2867 yards and 19 touchdowns, putting him on pace for 4430 yards and 29.3 touchdowns over 17 games.

Tagovailoa ranks among the league’s best at getting rid of the ball, averaging 2.31 seconds per pass, and actually leads the NFL in releases under 2.5 seconds. The main concern, even with his quick release, is the offensive line, which remains below the league standard.

The Dolphins front office addressed this somewhat with rookie Jonah Savaiinaea, drafted in the second round. Savaiinaea will take on a large role early in his career and be critical to Tua’s protection.

In the receiving corps, little has changed aside from the addition of unretired Darren Waller, signed in July. It will be intriguing to see how effective Waller can be after retirement, and whether he can truly add value to Tua and the offense.

Let’s see how sportsbooks project the season for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and if they believe these latest additions will make a difference.

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Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3450.5 (over even; under -125)
  • ESPN Bet: 3250.5 (over -145; under +115)
  • FanDuel: 3425.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3449.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 3500.5 (over -105; under -115)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 23.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 23.5 (over -105; under -125)
  • FanDuel: 22.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 22.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 23.5 (over -102; under -118)

The sportsbooks are generally in the same ballpark for Tua’s season, with most of the variation coming in the passing yards projections. For the over on pass yards, the best value is with DraftKings, while the best value for the under is available at either Bet365 or BetMGM. For passing touchdowns, the best value for the over can be found with either Bet365 or BetMGM, while the best option for the under is DraftKings.

In seasons where Tua has been the starter from the beginning (2021 to present), he has averaged 3423 passing yards and 22.25 touchdowns. These averages place him just slightly below the current projections from the sportsbooks.

Conclusion

Obviously, for any football player, an injury can happen on any play, but as we’ve seen throughout Tua Tagovailoa’s career in both college and the pros, he has endured more injuries than most. He should have no trouble hitting the over on any of his season-long passing props if he stays healthy—but that’s a big “if.” We’ll see if McDaniel can scheme plays to get the ball out quickly and perhaps have him throw less often.