Buffalo Bills

Over the past couple of seasons, the Buffalo Bills have had no shortage of offense, but the defense certainly hasn’t been up to par, especially when compared to the offense. This has led to the majority of Bills games since 2020 going over the total, for a record of 50-43-2 (53.8%), which was the best mark over this span in the AFC East. There have been a multitude of categories where Bills games have hit the over, with notable trends being playoff games: 8-3-1 (72.7%), games as an underdog: 12-6-1 (66.7%), games with a rest disadvantage: 14-7-1 (66.7%), and games following a win: 40-26-2 (60.6%). The only 2 areas where unders have been more common across Buffalo’s last 5 seasons have been in games after a bye: 5-1-0 (83.3%), and games following a loss: 14-8-0 (63.6%). With Josh Allen coming off an MVP season, and more time in the offseason to build with a younger receiving corps, it will be interesting to see how sportsbooks adjust this upcoming season.

Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins’ offense has been very solid, especially when Tua is healthy, while their defense has been overall mediocre since 2020. Sportsbooks have generally been a little too high on the Dolphins’ offense when setting over/unders for their games, as they hold the worst over record in the AFC East, with a mark of 40-46-0 (46.5%). The only category of any significance where Miami games have hit the over in the past 5 seasons has been when they’ve had the rest disadvantage, where their over record is 8-6-0 (57.1%). Miami doesn’t have any dominant trends for the under either, but the biggest ones are in games following a bye: 4-1-0 record (80%), games with a rest advantage: 10-6-0 record (62.5%), and games as a home underdog: 8-6-0 record (57.1%). Outside of these trends, everything falls within 5% of 50%, making Dolphins games difficult to gauge for over/unders.

New England Patriots

In the last 5 seasons, New England Patriots games have been just 2 results away from being exactly 50/50 on over/unders. Over this stretch, they landed just below 50% overs, with a record of 41-43-1 (48.8%), which ranks as the second highest over percentage in the AFC East. The Patriots do show some fairly strong trends in games that have gone over, notably in contests with a rest advantage: 9-5-0 record (64.3%), and games as an underdog: 29-22-1 record (56.9%), particularly as home underdogs: 12-8-1 record (60.0%). On the other hand, the under has prevailed in games where the Patriots were the favorite: 21-12-0 record (63.6%), more prominently as an away favorite: 10-3-0 record (76.9%), and in games against NFC opponents: 14-10-0 record (58.3%). New England has gone through plenty of changes recently, so it will be fascinating to see how sportsbooks and bettors adjust this trend, if at all, in 2025.

New York Jets

Lastly, the New York Jets land in the 3rd spot in the AFC East when it comes to their games going over since 2020, with a record of 39-44-1 (47.0%). The Jets don’t show many strong trends for the over, but their best categories have been in games after a bye: 3-2-0 record (60.0%), and games as a home favorite: 7-5-0 record (58.3%). Thankfully, there are some stronger trends that favor betting the under in Jets games, those being contests where the Jets hold a rest advantage: 12-5-0 record (70.6%), games following a win: 14-9-0 (60.9%), games against NFC opponents: 14-10-0 record (58.3%), along with both divisional games and games as a home underdog: 17-13-0 record (56.7%).