Week 1 of the College Football season isn’t over just yet, as we get the much-anticipated college head coaching debut of Bill Belichick. The TCU Horned Frogs travel to Chapel Hill this Labor Day Monday to face the UNC Tar Heels. There isn’t much history between these two programs, with only three prior meetings, all won by North Carolina, the most recent coming in 1997. TCU put together a strong campaign last year at 9-4 overall and 6-3 in the Big 12, while UNC struggled at 6-7 and 3-5 in the ACC. The Horned Frogs enter as slight favorites at -3.5 (-112), -170 moneyline, while UNC sits at +3.5 (-108), +142 moneyline per DraftKings. The over/under has dipped slightly from 55.5 to 54.5 (over -112; under -108).

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Weather

This game kicks off at 8:00 PM on ESPN in Chapel Hill, where the weather looks ideal. At kickoff, temperatures will sit in the low-to-mid 70s before dipping into the mid-to-high 60s as the night goes on. There is also a 0% chance of rain, with only light winds averaging around 5–7 mph.

Team Overviews

The edge for TCU heading into this matchup largely comes from their continuity. While they have a handful of new transfers expected to start on both sides of the ball, most players have been in Sonny Dykes’ system for at least a year. The Horned Frogs return redshirt junior Josh Hoover at quarterback, who had a solid year but struggled late. Offensively, the biggest concern lies with offensive line depth, particularly with an inexperienced left tackle in Ryan Hughes. Defensively, TCU looks strong across the board, though safety depth could be a minor concern.

As expected, new Head Coach Bill Belichick completely revamped the UNC roster, adding several transfers from the portal, especially on defense. Offensively, there’s slightly more continuity from Mack Brown’s last group, but with a new culture and new quarterback in Gio Lopez, a South Alabama transfer, adjustments will be necessary. With Freddie Kitchens taking over as offensive coordinator, the scheme will likely shift from last season. Defensively, nearly the entire unit was reshaped by Belichick, with only two projected starters returning from last year. Defense has long been Carolina’s Achilles’ heel, but Belichick should elevate that unit to a level Chapel Hill hasn’t seen in years.

ATS & Over/Under Records & Trends

Last season TCU finished just below .500 ATS, going 6-7-0 (.462). On the road they were exactly even at 3-3, though as an away favorite they managed just 1-2-0 (.333). Their over/under results leaned slightly to the over, with 7 overs and 6 unders. As the road team, the over hit 4 times compared to 2 unders, and as an away favorite the over hit twice with the under cashing once.

UNC, on the other hand, was dreadful ATS last year, finishing 2-10-1 overall and failing to cover a single game at home, going 0-7-0 (0-2-0 as a home underdog). The Tar Heels also leaned toward the under, with just 5 overs compared to 8 unders. However, at home the over was more common, hitting 4 times against 3 unders.

Final Thoughts

Week 1 always poses challenges for every team, with a new season bringing plenty of moving parts. UNC faces even more uncertainty with a new head coach and a completely overhauled roster. With Belichick’s NFL pedigree, he has proven adaptable, but it will be fascinating to see how this Tar Heel team looks right out of the gate. TCU, on the other hand, holds the continuity advantage, as Sonny Dykes has built a strong culture in Fort Worth. While Carolina isn’t traditionally known for a major home-field edge, the combination of Belichick’s debut and a primetime stage should make Chapel Hill a difficult place to play tonight.