Houston Texans

Either the sportsbooks are overvaluing the Houston Texans’ offense or giving their defense too much credit, but they hold the lowest over record in the AFC South, which also means they have the highest under percentage. Since 2020, the Texans’ over record has been 37-50-1 (42.5%), translating to an under rate of 57.5%. With how consistently the under has hit in Texans games, there’s little reason to back the over, with the lone exception being when they’ve been an away favorite, where their over record sits at 6-5-0 (54.5%). On the flip side, there are several areas where the under has been highly reliable. These include games with a rest disadvantage: 7-3-1 (70.0% under), games with a rest advantage: 11-5-0 (68.7% under), games as a home favorite: 10-5-0 (66.7% under), games against NFC opponents: 15-9-0 (62.5% under), and divisional games: 18-12-0 (60.0% under). Given that Houston’s overall under rate has hovered near 60%, there really hasn’t been much incentive to play overs in their matchups.

Indianapolis Colts

Since 2020, Indianapolis Colts games have produced a majority of overs, giving them the best over record in the AFC South at 45-39-1 (53.6%). Notably, this was the only positive over record in the division. The strongest over trends contributing to that mark came in games as an away underdog: 15-10-1 (60.0%), games with a rest advantage: 10-7-1 (58.8%), and non-division matchups: 31-23-1 (57.4%). On the other hand, the only under trend of real significance has been in games where the Colts faced a rest disadvantage: 8-5-0 (61.5%). With plenty of uncertainty surrounding Indianapolis’ offense in particular, it will be interesting to see if they can sustain these results and how sportsbooks adjust moving forward.

Jacksonville Jaguars

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Another AFC South team with the majority of their games since 2020 hitting the under, the Jacksonville Jaguars have posted an over percentage of 45.9% (39-46-1), or an under rate of 54.1%. This ranks them third in the division in terms of over percentage. There haven’t been many consistent trends pointing to Jaguars games going over, though the most notable has been as an away underdog, where they’ve gone 18-15-1 (54.5%). The key factors driving Jacksonville’s strong under-record have been games as a home underdog: 16-10-0 (61.5%), games following a loss: 33-21-1 (61.1%), and games with a rest disadvantage: 9-6-0 (60.0%).

Tennessee Titans

Sportsbooks have been fairly accurate with setting totals for the Tennessee Titans, as they hold an over record of 41-43-2 (48.8%), ranking second in the AFC South. The games that have produced the most frequent overs have been when Tennessee played as an away underdog: 18-12-0 (60.0%), and in games with a rest disadvantage: 8-6-0 (57.1%). Conversely, unders have been common when the Titans were a home favorite: 16-8-1 (66.7%), and in games with a rest advantage: 11-6-1 (64.7%). Given how close their overall record is to 50%, there haven’t been many definitive trends in either direction, making Tennessee a difficult team to bet on for over/unders.