Last week the model went 4–1–1 on predictions, and while the record continues to move in the right direction, that Tier 1 loss stings a little more than most. The process doesn’t change based on one result. We move on.
The 2026 record now sits at 62–34–6, 64.58% on the year.
This week on First Strike, Dave Ross and I are joined by Shane Thurston from Just Win Bets Baby! for a full betting breakdown. If you haven’t already, head over to YouTube or your podcast platform of choice and subscribe so you never miss an episode. New shows drop every fight week.
UFC Vegas 118 heads back to the APEX, headlined by former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim.
Let’s dig in.
Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler
Sometimes the model doesn’t need to find a great fighter. It just needs to find the less bad one.
Priscila Cachoeira enters on a two-fight losing streak, most recently a decision loss to Klaudia Sygula back in February, and has managed just one win in her last five fights. Chelsea Chandler isn’t in a dramatically better position. She is also on a two-fight losing streak, sitting at 2–3 in her last five with two weight misses mixed in along the way. One of these women has to win on Saturday.
Chandler holds a three-inch reach advantage at 68 inches, but the real story starts with the xR%. And it is quite a story.
Chandler sits at 36%, a number well below the red flag line that tells you she’s losing the vast majority of rounds she competes in. That’s a bad number. And then there’s Cachoeira at 19%. That is one of the lowest xR% figures the model has seen. Across 13 UFC fights. We’re not dealing with a small sample. She is simply losing almost every round she is in. She just lost another. The data has had plenty of time to settle, and it has settled in the wrong direction entirely for her.
The striking numbers explain everything. Cachoeira lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute. Some output is there, but attaches a –3.17 differential to it, absorbing a staggering 7.60 significant strikes per minute. She has some power, three knockdowns scored in the UFC, but she’s been dropped three times herself. And the damage she’s absorbing in every fight is a number that’s hard to look past. Chandler lands 3.55 per minute with a –0.89 differential, absorbing 4.44 per minute. Not clean, but meaningfully better than what’s across the cage.
The ground game doesn’t change the picture. Chandler holds a 55% control rate with three takedowns at 60% accuracy. Cachoeira checks in with a 6% control rate and only two career takedowns. This fight almost certainly stays standing, and on the feet, Chandler has the cleaner profile by a significant margin.
The model delivers a 79% win probability for Chelsea Chandler, a confident score that is driven less by Chandler’s strengths and more by how concerning Cachoeira’s numbers truly are at this stage of her career. Her current odds of –120 represent genuine value against that probability, and this is one of those spots where the model is clear enough to act despite the aesthetics of the matchup.
It’s not pretty, but it’s a bet.
Embed from Getty ImagesBrendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan
This one is as close as it gets. In paper, in the numbers, and in the model output. And the odds don’t reflect the uncertainty the way they should.
Brendan Allen closed out 2025 on a two-fight win streak, collecting victories over Marvin Vettori and Reinier de Ridder after a pair of losses had snapped a seven-fight run. He’s a proven middleweight who knows how to grind out wins in multiple ways. Edmen Shahbazyan enters on a three-fight win streak of his own, picking up three victories across 2025 after a rocky stretch earlier in his UFC career. Both men have momentum. Both men are dangerous.
Physically these two are mirrors. Both 6’2 with a 75-inch reach. The xR% gap is barely there at 59% for Allen, 60% for Shahbazyan. A one-point difference that the model treats as essentially even.
The striking numbers are almost identical. Allen lands 3.58 significant strikes per minute with a 0.00 differential, perfectly breaking even on damage. Shahbazyan lands 3.64 per minute with a +0.07 differential. The gap between them on the feet is essentially nonexistent. Where Shahbazyan does carry a meaningful edge is in the power department. He has seven knockdowns scored in the UFC compared to three for Allen, and Allen is the only one of the two who has been knocked down, having been dropped twice.
The ground game is where Allen historically separates himself. He holds a 56% control rate, has scored 21 takedowns and logged 15 submission attempts across his UFC career. His submission threat is constant and legitimate. Shahbazyan counters with a 46% control rate and 66% takedown defense. It’s respectable enough to keep things competitive on the mat but not a wall Allen can’t eventually breach.
The model gives Allen the nod at 63% win probability, but here’s the problem. His current odds of –215 imply roughly 68%, and the model grades him as a Tier 5 trap favorite. A category that has only hit 56% of the time in 2026. That gap between the model’s confidence and the price tag is exactly the kind of spot the tier system was built to flag.
Allen is the official prediction. He is not the official bet.
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim
Belal Muhammad’s climb to the title was one of the more impressive runs in recent welterweight history, a 10-fight win streak that culminated in a unanimous decision victory over Leon Edwards to capture the belt in 2024. Since then, he’s lost the title on his first defense against Jack Della Maddalena and most recently dropped a decision to Ian Machado Garry last November. A former champion on a two-fight losing streak, now tasked with rebuilding against one of the division’s rising names.
Gabriel Bonfim enters at 28 years old and 19–1 professionally, riding a four-fight win streak that includes a TKO over Randy Brown last November. His only career loss came back in 2023. He’s ascending at exactly the moment Belal is trying to stop a slide, and that dynamic is worth keeping in mind.
The age gap is nine years. Belal is 37 and Bonfim is 28. Strength of schedule goes to the former champion, and that can matter in a close fight.
The xR% gap is modest but meaningful. Belal sits at 67%, a solid mark for a former champion potentially in decline. Bonfim checks in at 73%, a slight but real edge that reflects a fighter winning rounds at a higher rate. A rising contender pulling ahead of a slipping champion in that metric is a pattern the model takes seriously.
The striking numbers are remarkably even. Belal lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute with a +0.60 differential, absorbing just under four per minute. Bonfim lands 4.50 per minute with a +0.89 differential, absorbing slightly less at 3.61. The output is nearly identical. Bonfim edges him in efficiency, but neither man is dramatically outperforming the other on the feet.
The grappling is where Belal has historically made his fights. He holds an 80% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, a dominant number. But his recent outings have shown cracks in that foundation. He went 0-for-7 on takedown attempts against Machado Garry and 3-for-9 in the title loss to JDM. If those numbers reflect a decline in his grappling effectiveness rather than opponent-specific adjustments, it’s a significant concern.
Bonfim defends takedowns at 76% and holds a 70% control rate himself. He’ll look to keep this on the feet and the blueprint for beating Belal Muhammad has been established. Make him work for takedowns, neutralize the wrestling, and outwork him on the feet over 25 minutes.
The model lands on Belal at 61% win probability, but he falls as a Tier 5 trap favorite with current odds around –125. The Tier 5 category is hitting only 56% of the time in 2026, and a former champion on a two-fight losing streak just isn’t worth the trouble even at an appealing price.
I’ve said it numerous times on the podcast, but expecting a fighter to do what they’re good at is a dangerous game we play. And I’m not sure I can trust Belal to do what he should.
Where I may look this week instead is the prop market. Takedown props and striking props are worth exploring in a matchup this even that could potentially see all 5 rounds. Whether that’s Belal over on takedown attempts given his grappling aggression, or striking output props reflecting how close these two are on the feet. We’re watching what the board offers as the week develops before committing to anything specific.
No official play on the moneyline, but the prop market will be open for business on this one.
For MORE model tale of the tapes and fight reports on this weeks card, head to FightingWithNumbers.com.
Good luck on your bets. Enjoy the violence.
The post First Strike Model Projections For UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment