Twelve teams had Thursday off to get ready for the weekend and now we have a full slate of games with all 30 teams set to take the field and conclude under the lights. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season, Jacob Misiorowski, is on the hill, but he’s not the only guy on the bump in the midst of an excellent 2026 campaign. That said, there are some guys who are not having the best fortunes, so there are some good opportunities across the card to find solid wagers.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 12:

Cardinals vs. Twins Prediction

Embed from Getty Images

Picks: Twins -137; Twins 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-110)

It’s Kyle Leahy Day and you know what that means – I’m looking to fade the Cardinals. It just so happens that Joe Ryan is on the bump for the Twins, as he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 3.07 xERA and a 2.92 FIP over his 76.1 innings of work. Ryan has had a little bit of a reset back to what he’s always been, as he’s allowed four homers over his last three starts, but he’s only allowed seven for the season with a 7.1% HR/FB%.

Skeptics will note that 7.1% is well below his career average of 11.5% and expect some regression and that does seem to be taking place. I also can’t blame them for that line of thinking, but Ryan continues to have a tremendous K/BB ratio and some altered pitch usage and a lower arm angle may be aiding the cause. Ryan’s Chase Rate is 32.4% this season, much higher than last season’s 25.1% and well above his 29.5% career average. It is a lot harder to Barrel up a ball that is outside of the zone than one inside of it. Ryan’s decreased fastball usage has also been a big help.

Leahy has been a good fade recently and there should be some more tread on those tires. He has a 4.42 ERA with a 6.57 xERA and a 4.70 FIP on the season. His walk rate is too high, his strikeout rate is too low, and he’s a reliever turned into a starter who is having difficulty turning lineups over. He’s allowed a 49% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%.

As a starter, Leahy’s velo is noticeably down and so is the quality of his stuff with just an 8.5% SwStr%. There aren’t many stats of his that are MLB-caliber.

The Twins have been a borderline top-10 offense against RHP over the last couple of weeks, while the Cardinals have not. In fact, STL is riding a .313 BABIP and an 8.8% BB% to a decent OBP. Ryan is a low-BABIP, low-BB hurler, so this looks like a bad matchup through and through.

Dodgers vs. White Sox Prediction

MLB Player Prop Pick: Roki Sasaki (LAD) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126)

Don’t look now, but it seems like the Dodgers have fixed Japanese wunderkind Roki Sasaki. In his age-23 season, Sasaki posted a 4.46 ERA with a 5.67 xERA and a 5.80 FIP, as he didn’t miss bats, walked too many guys, and seemed to have problems adjusting to North America. Of course, he also became the team’s closer by the postseason.

Sasaki has a 4.03 ERA with a 4.20 xERA and a 4.57 FIP this season, so things are still a work in progress. However, his K% has jumped from 17.4% to 24.3% and his BB% is down from 13.7% to 8.5%. His most recent starts have a lot to do with that.

In his last four starts covering 24.1 innings of work, Sasaki has 29 punchouts against just five walks with a 1.48 ERA, 2.24 xERA, and a 1.87 FIP. He has a 16.1% SwStr% and a 35.7% Chase Rate, plus he’s getting lots of whiffs on those chases and hitters are swinging at a 55.6% clip, so they’re trying to be aggressive and it’s not helping.

The White Sox haven’t struck out a ton lately and have improved upon their season-long K% of 23.9%, but this will be their first exposure to Sasaki, who has been a swing-and-miss machine lately. He’s gone Over 5.5 Strikeouts in three of his last four starts. I think he has a great shot to do it today at a very good price.

Rays vs. Angels Prediction

Pick: Rays Run Line -1.5 (-105)

The Rays play well west of the Mississippi River for the first time this season as they open up a West Coast road swing against the Angels. Tampa Bay opened the season in St. Louis and that is the farthest west that they have been, but teams always seem to look forward to treks to California and some solid road cities to visit, so it shouldn’t be a big problem. That said, it is their first game outside of the Eastern Time Zone since April 16, so you never know.

But, I think the pitching matchup and several other factors are worth backing the Rays. Let’s start with Shane McClanahan, who sports a 2.85 ERA with a 3.63 xERA and a 2.93 FIP over his 60 innings of work. He’s struck out 59 and walked 21, but the Angels walk at one of the lowest rates in the league, so I’m not at all worried about that. Plus, 11 of those 21 walks came over his first three starts of the season.

He did get roughed up a bit last time out by the Marlins, giving up four runs for the third time this season, but he wasn’t hit hard with a 31.3% Hard Hit% and just one Barrel. It was just some sequencing and batted ball luck and those things will happen. He’s allowed a 38.8% HH% for the season, which is terrific. 

Over the last 14 days, the Angels are slashing a paltry .197/.247/.289 against LHP with the league’s lowest wOBA at .243 and worst wRC+ at 49. This is not a good offensive team to begin with, but now they’re on the weaker side of the platoon against a guy with a sub-3.00 ERA. I really think McClanahan has the chance to complete six innings for just the second time this season in this one. If not, the Rays have a well-rested relief corps from yesterday’s off day.

As a team that incorporates a lot of platoons, it can be tough to be a right-handed bench bat if you aren’t getting a lot of playing time and that is a problem that the Rays face from time to time. Not today, though, as Sam Aldegheri is the fourth straight left-handed starter that they are facing. That means those right-handed sticks should be in pretty good rhythm. 

Over one start and three relief appearances – and we could see a right-handed opener today from the Angels – Aldegheri has allowed four runs on 11 hits in 12 innings with just an 8/5 K/BB ratio. The Rays are a middle of the pack lineup against LHP of late, but Aldegheri had a 7.24 ERA with just a 32/23 K/BB ratio in 46 innings in Triple-A. The PCL is a brutal league to pitch in, but those are still worse numbers than the league average.

With McClanahan, a rested pen, and one of the best records in baseball this season, the Rays look like a solid bet getting all nine innings worth of plate appearances to win by a little distance

The post MLB Best Bets Today: Adam Burke’s Picks for Friday, June 12 appeared first on VSiN.