MLB Best Bets Today May 22

The holiday weekend begins with 15 games on the schedule, but a few are threatened by some rain, including the Cardinals vs. Reds game, which has a high probability of being banged, a game where I do like Cincinnati. At least it’s easy for division rivals to play a twin bill and that will probably factor into the decision. Otherwise, we’ve got a cool day game with the wind blowing in at Wrigley and 14 night games listed for May 22.

The biggest note on the Friday card is probably the return of Gerrit Cole for the Yankees against the first-place Rays, as they’ll send veteran Nick Martinez to the bump. We’ve also got an excellent matchup of young starters with Connor Prielipp and Payton Tolle in Twins vs. Red Sox among the highlights on the slate.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 22:

Guardians vs. Phillies Prediction

Pick: 1st 5 Over 3.5 Runs (-110)

Gavin Williams and Cristopher Sanchez are the listed starters for the series lid lifter in Philly. Williams has a 3.67 ERA with a 4.48 xERA and a 3.75 FIP over his 61.1 innings of work covering 10 starts, but he’s had some tougher outings lately. Over his last five starts dating back to April 24, Williams has a 5.12 ERA with a 5.51 xERA. He does have a 3.64 FIP due to a strong K/BB ratio, but he’s allowed a .363 BABIP to go along with five homers. In total, he’s given up 19 runs in 31.2 innings in that span.

He’s allowed 5+ runs in three of those five starts and even in his last start, a two-run effort over six innings, he allowed three Barrels and a 44.4% Hard Hit%. He’s allowed 13 Barrels in his last 96 batted ball events for a 13.5% Barrel% and has allowed a 43.8% Hard Hit%.

Obviously Sanchez is an extremely tough customer with a 1.82 ERA, 2.76 xERA, and a 1.92 FIP, but the Guardians are actually a top-10 offense against LHP for the first time in basically forever. They’re slashing .251/.336/.410 in that split with an 18.7% K% that is the fourth-lowest in baseball. Cleveland will put balls in play here and the Phillies are 25th in Outs Above Average at -11 and -5 around the infield. Cleveland has some speedy guys and puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Even if they can scratch out a run or two, I’d feel good about this position.

Sanchez has also allowed a .286/.330/.386 slash with a .321 wOBA to RHB compared to a .145/.172/.194 slash with a .167 wOBA to lefties. Cleveland will have at least six right-handed bats out there.

Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction

Pick: Reds -126

This game is very likely to get rained out, but I wanted to write it up anyway because I do like the Cincinnati side of the handicap as I mentioned in the intro. Chris Paddack’s season has been one to forget, as he’s 0-5 in seven starts and a relief appearance with a 7.07 ERA, 4.22 xERA, and a 4.70 FIP, but maybe we saw some of that positive regression move in last time out against Cleveland.

Paddack, who has been hit hard by a .342 BABIP and a 60.1% LOB%, significantly altered his pitch usage in that start and allowed an average exit velocity of just 76.9 mph with an 11.1% Hard Hit%. He only struck out three, but cutting down on his sinker/slider usage to throw more four-seamers and changeups was a strong strategy.

On the flip side, while Paddack is looking at some potential improvements, Kyle Leahy’s staring down the barrel of the opposite. He’s got a 3.94 ERA in 45.2 innings of work after converting from relieving to starting, but he has a 6.17 xERA and a 4.83 FIP. Leahy has a low K%, high BB%, and has allowed a 48.6% Hard Hit% with a 10.8% Barrel%. His best attribute is being 6-foot-5 with elite Extension that helps his fastball play up, but his xBA ranks in the bottom 3% of the league, his xSLG ranks in the bottom 9%, his xwOBA ranks in the bottom 7%, his Hard Hit% ranks in the bottom 6%, and his xERA in the bottom 7%. He’s simply not a good pitcher, but has fallen on the right side of luck – which should run out soon.

Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction

Pick: Connor Prielipp (MIN) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

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Minnesota has a good one in Prielipp. Admittedly, he draws a tough assignment here, as the Red Sox are the top offense in the league against LHP over the last 30 days with a .380 wOBA and have just a 20.9% K%, but Prielipp’s elite spin rates and the lack of opposition experience against him have been big factors as to why he has 29 strikeouts in 25 innings of work thus far.

Prielipp has made five starts and had 6+ strikeouts in three of them, including eight punchies in his last start against a Brewers team that has a lower K% against southpaws over the last 30 days than the Red Sox do. In one of the starts where he fell short, he had a season-high 13.1% SwStr%, but he just didn’t get a lot of chases.

There is extra incentive to pitch for strikeouts at Fenway Park, where balls in play can be very damaging. I wrote extensively about Prielipp prior to that Milwaukee start on May 16 and will cite from that here:

What makes Prielipp special is his incredible spin rates on his slider and curveball. His average spin rate on his curveball this season is 3,209 rpm. The league average for starting pitchers on curveballs is 2,576 rpm. Similarly, if we look at his slider at 2,843 rpm, that’s also well above the league average at 2,432 rpm.

The higher the spin, the lower the Contact%. It may be tough to read the key, but the blue line is curveballs and the pink line is sliders. Now, obviously hitters and pitchers have evolved over the last decade. Hitters are much better equipped to handle spin. But, just setting a Statcast search at 2,600 rpm, the Whiff% on sliders league-wide for starting pitchers is 39.4%. That’s still over 200 rpm below Prielipp’s average. 

If we look at curveballs at 2,800 rpm or higher, the Whiff% is 33.3%. Again, Prielipp’s is much higher than that. If we go up to 3,000 rpm or higher, the Whiff% actually drops to 31.9%. But, Prielipp’s curveball Whiff% is just 18.8% this season, so that’s an area of growth for him. Similarly, his slider at 33.3% is a little lower than what we’d expect, mostly because of his opposition.

After his last start, his Whiff% on his slider is 32.1%, so again, room for growth there. His Whiff% on his curveball dropped to 20%. So, he had all those strikeouts without getting lots of swings and misses on what should be his two best pitches. I think we can keep seeing some value on his strikeout props and I could see improvement as he keeps learning how to pitch at this level.

Athletics vs. Padres Prediction

Pick: Athletics +109

Jeffrey Springs and Walker Buehler are the listed starters here, as the A’s bring a three-game winning streak to San Diego. The Padres were not in action yesterday, so they do have a rest and bullpen usage advantage, but the A’s should have a pretty clear starting pitching edge here with Springs over Buehler.

A big reason why is because this Padres team owns a putrid .200/.256/.294 slash with a .250 wOBA and a league-low 59 wRC+ against LHP over the last 30 days. Plus, they have a 26.2% K% in that split. Springs has had a trio of blow-ups this season accounting for 15 of the 25 runs he has allowed, so he’s allowed 10 runs in his other seven starts. Those were against the White Sox, Rangers, and Cardinals, with two of them at home in Sacramento. He’s in a good pitcher’s park tonight.

Springs has a 3.93 ERA with a 3.57 xERA and a 4.26 FIP, as he’s allowed eight homers and has a slightly below average K%, so the FIP is high, but four of those homers came in one start, so he’s allowed four homers across his other nine starts. In other words, he’s been really good way more often than he’s been bad and that should at least keep the A’s in the game. The 1st 5 moneyline is -115 here, so I’m willing to trade that for a plus-money price by hoping the A’s have a lead and can turn it over to a bullpen with a 3.22 ERA, 3.10 xERA, and 2.99 FIP over the last two weeks.

Buehler checks in with a 5.01 ERA, 4.85 xERA, and a 3.73 FIP. He’s only allowed four homers and has a decent K%, but he’s struggled to get out of jams with a 66.8% LOB%. Also, his K% is more of a byproduct of called strikes as opposed to swinging strikes. His 7.2% SwStr% is quite poor and hasn’t been higher than 8.5% in any of his last five starts.

I’ll take the shot on the A’s tonight, especially since the Padres have been so bad against southpaws and Sacramento could jump on Buehler. Could always play back on the Padres live if we wanted given the strength of their pen.

The post MLB Best Bets Today: Adam Burke’s Picks for Friday, May 22 appeared first on VSiN.