MLB Best Bets Today June 6

The MLB schedule is staggered pretty nicely on Saturday, as there are a bunch of games grouped together in the evening, but also some one or two-offs every hour prior to that. It should be a great day of baseball with some aces, some faces, and a whole lot of in between among the starting pitchers.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 6:

Rays vs. Marlins Prediction

Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

Shane McClanahan will go for the Rays and we’ll get some combination of Lake Bachar and Cade Gibson early in the game for the Marlins, as they roll with a Johnny Wholestaff game against their Sunshine State rivals.

McClanahan only has six strikeouts over his last two starts, but I don’t see any injury indicators or major concerns, plus he’s only allowed one run on seven hits over those two outings. For the season, Mac has a 2.45 ERA with a 3.60 xERA and a 2.75 FIP over 55 innings and 11 starts. He gave up four runs in his May 18 start against Baltimore. Dating back to April 25, he’s allowed a total of five runs in 37 innings. He allowed one run last start. His other five starts in that span have all been shutout work.

The Marlins are 18th in wOBA against LHP over the last 14 days, including a 25% K%, so maybe McClanahan will find some more whiffs in this one.

Bachar will make his second straight start for the Marlins, as he went 2.2 innings with just a walk allowed against the Nationals across nine batters last time out. He’s made 19 appearances and gone 2+ innings in 10 of them. He has a 3.45 ERA with a 3.13 xERA and a 4.19 FIP with 35 strikeouts in 31.1 innings, so he’s been very effective.

His left-handed complement here will be Gibson, who has made six appearances at the MLB level this season. He has allowed seven runs on 12 hits, but has only allowed one run in his last four appearances. Like Bachar, he has some bat-missing abilities with 10 K in 8.2 innings and 23 K in 20 IP at Triple-A. He’s a ground ball fiend who has only allowed one Barrel thus far in 26 batted balls and only allowed one Barrel in 50 batted balls in Triple-A.

All of the high-leverage arms are available for these two teams today, so there will be a lot of arm slots and a lot of different stuff profiles across the game.

Mets vs. Padres Prediction

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Pick: Mets -123

The Padres are in freefall mode right now, as they’ve dropped 10 of their last 11 and have scored more than three runs just three times in that span. They draw a tough customer today in Nolan McLean, who checks in with a 4.21 ERA, but a 3.36 xERA and a 3.80 FIP over his 66.1 innings of work.

The right-hander is a difficult matchup with 77 K and a 29% CSW, which is actually down from the 32.2% that he had last season. He actually has a sub-10% SwStr%, which is really low for a guy with his caliber of stuff, but he’s also limited opponents to a 37.1% Hard Hit% and a 7.2% Barrel% over 167 batted balls. Even when he doesn’t get whiffs, he’s still staying off the Barrel and that’s a big skill in and of itself.

San Diego is in a tailspin largely because of the offense. They are only batting .158/.266/.240 against RHP over the last 14 days with a .241 wOBA. The next lowest in that span is Cleveland at .280. Their 53 wRC+ is far and away the lowest in the league. McLean’s quality of stuff is not a great match for an offense playing that poorly.

The Mets seem to be showing signs of life, as they’ve won six of their last eight. Today, they’ll match up against Griffin Canning, who has a 7.16 ERA with a 4.96 xERA and a 5.60 FIP over 27.2 innings of work. It seemed like maybe Canning would benefit from a change of scenery and a better ballpark, but that hasn’t been the case. After a good first start against the White Sox on May 3, Canning has allowed 21 runs in his last 22.2 innings of work.

The Padres have an outstanding bullpen, but because of their low offensive output, they haven’t really been able to turn it over to them with a lead. If the same holds true tonight, the losing streak should extend out to seven games.

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