Mother Nature had her say on Wednesday, so we now have two doubleheaders on Thursday. Astros vs. Orioles and Giants vs. Phillies are the double dips on the docket. The other unfortunate thing about today, at least for me, is that seven games start before the 11 a.m. PT hour, so that doesn’t leave a lot of lead time for readers.

There are actually only two night games, really, so it’s a light night for those embracing the daily grind. A blessing and a curse, to some degree. But, the early starts include a pick I liked yesterday of fading Peter Lambert against Chris Bassitt. I’m sticking with that here for Game 1 of the doubleheader. Apologies for the limited lead time, but if you read yesterday’s article, hopefully you had that pick in mind this morning.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for April 30:

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (-122, 9)

12:35 p.m. ET

This is a repost of last night’s pick in this matchup – I still like it today.

To Camden Yards we go for Peter Lambert vs. Chris Bassitt, as Lambert makes his 38th career start and Bassitt makes his 224th. It’s been a rough start for the wily vet, who has a 6.75 ERA, 6.22 xERA, and a 6.27 FIP over his 21.1 innings of work in his first season with the Orioles. He’s walked more batters than he’s struck out, allowed a .354 BABIP, and simply hasn’t had a lot of success.

However, there are a few things that look promising for him in this start and moving forward. Let’s start with this matchup specifically. Bassitt has been obliterated by lefties this season to the tune of a .377/.478/.623 slash and a .471 wOBA in 67 PA. Righties have a .297/.366/.297 slash against him in 41 PA. He’s allowed 11 hits and they’ve all been singles. For his career, Bassitt has allowed a .253/.322/.429 slash and a .330 wOBA to lefties, but righties only have a .237/.298/.341 slash with a .283 wOBA.

The Astros are a very right-handed heavy lineup and that should be to Bassitt’s benefit here. Even as recently as last season, Bassitt allowed just a .233/.290/.356 slash with a .286 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He hasn’t allowed a wOBA above .286 since 2019. He’s absolutely had a rough start to the season, but this should be a navigable lineup for him.

The K/BB ratio is really bad. Bassitt only has a 21.1% Chase Rate and a 7.5% SwStr%. That would be the lowest Chase Rate of his career and lowest SwStr% since 2018. So, I can’t put much lipstick on that pig and I am admittedly concerned about his dropping arm angle. He may just be running out of gas. This start will tell us a lot if that’s the case.

However, his .337 BA against and .354 BABIP are numbers that should come down. Bassitt has only allowed three Barrels for a 3.7% Barrel% and a 35.4% Hard Hit%. There are 142 pitchers that have thrown at least 20 innings this season. Bassitt has the 18th-highest batting average on balls in play against, while sitting 30th in Hard Hit% and 11th in Barrel%. He hasn’t given up a ton of hard contact at all. He very much deserves a better fate on balls in play. He ranks in the 73rd percentile in average exit velocity, 85th in Barrel%, and 67th in Hard Hit%, while also being above average in GB%. He’s run into a hell of a lot of bad luck and the low K% has exacerbated it.

Lambert is only a Major Leaguer because the Astros have 9,000 injuries. He just went six shutout innings with eight strikeouts against a hapless Guardians lineup in the second-best start of his career by FanGraphs Game Score. His only better start came against the Cubs back on June 6, 2019, so we’re talking about more or less a career day against Cleveland. This is a guy who pitched to a 4.26 ERA in Japan last season with a 10.2% BB%. I really don’t expect much out of him as a big leaguer. 

The Astros have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 6.27 and the highest FIP at 5.89. The Orioles are mid-pack in both categories. Even if Bassitt doesn’t see improvement, the O’s have some late-game advantages.

Pick: Orioles -122

Kansas City Royals at Athletics (-126, 10)

Embed from Getty Images

3:05 p.m. ET

Trying to sneak this one in there with limited lead time, so I’ll keep the write-up short and sweet. Lane Thomas is +135 for Over 0.5 Runs. Of the players listed on DraftKings, that’s the fourth-highest price going up against left-hander Jeffrey Springs.

Thomas is on the Royals roster to be a platoon bat option against LHP. That’s really it, even though he’s been playing a lot lately against righties as well. Either way, he’s been a successful hitter against lefties throughout his career, posting a .292/.363/.497 slash with a .368 wOBA and a 135 wRC+. This season, Thomas is slashing .269/.441/.423 with a .398 wOBA and a 150 wRC+.

Thomas actually assumed the leadoff role in the last game against a lefty. He was in the cleanup spot the game prior to that. With Thomas drawing a lot of walks so far against lefties, along with four of his six runs scored, plus a prominent placement in the lineup, I don’t think this is a bad wager at all with a mispriced line given the context of the game.

Pick: Lane Thomas (KC) Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+135)

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