MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:

This past week’s MLB Bullpen Systems produced modest results across the board, with better bullpens extending winning streaks and worse bullpens extending losing streaks being the best-performing angles. These modest results, combined with the passing of the one-month mark on the MLB schedule for 2026, I have dedicated this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update to simply sharing the updated records and throwing in some of my observations from the season’s first month regarding bullpen performance.

MLB opening day was March 25th, and undoubtedly, the season’s first month flew by. Along with some overall surprises across the league, such as the hot starts of the Reds, Braves, and Athletics, as well as the brutal stretches of baseball from Philadelphia, the Mets, and Boston, there have been some noteworthy things happening regarding the bullpens. Some of them correlate directly to the hot and slow starts of teams. Let’s take a look at some of the things I’ve noticed and thought about so far.

– We have a new team at the top of my MLB Bullpen Rankings: Atlanta. The Braves are #1 in the league in WHIP from their relief corps, and as a group, they have only endured one blown save, tied with the Cubs and Astros for the league lead. Not coincidentally, Atlanta owns the league’s best record overall, entering this week’s play at 20-9. The Braves took over the top spot from San Diego after an atrocious outing by the Padres in Mexico City on Sunday. Their bullpen allowed 10 runs in just two innings of work and blew a 7-1 lead in the process.

– The teams at the bottom of my Bullpen Rankings are not as much of a surprise, and in fact, it could be argued that Washington and the White Sox, both ranked in the bottom six at the outset of the season, are simply fulfilling their destinies. Those two teams played an intriguing and competitive series in Chicago this weekend, and the Nats took two of three. Washington currently leads MLB with eight blown saves.It’s a major reason they are just 13-16 right now, despite scoring 5.4 runs per game!

– Speaking of bad bullpens, there are currently seven teams with a SM BP Rating of -8 or less. This is a very high amount, as typically bullpens are the better-performing group when it comes to pitching numbers over starting rotations. However, the average BP ERA is 4.22, and the average WHIP is 1.37. Those are unusually low numbers, and these seven teams have done a lot to draw down the numbers. You can see those teams at the bottom of the article.

– I’ve discussed the pros/cons of the EASIEST Bullpen angle in almost every MLB Bullpen Systems update I’ve done thus far. I do so because it can run hot and cold, and I feel I need to caution readers about this. Well, the last two weeks, it was mostly HOT, as we had 10 positive return days over the last 14. That said, the biggest loss day came this past Sunday, with -6.7 units. That negative return wiped out all of our wins for last week and more. Be selective with this system or be prepared for volatility.

– Perhaps the biggest surprise team of all this season, in regards to bullpen performance, has been the Cincinnati Reds, and that group has contributed significantly to why this team finds itself atop the NL Central Division, a division with all five teams over .500 entering the week’s play. The Reds are #2 in the league in BP ERA and have turned around the most games last this season, too, with the relief staff accounting for nine wins (9-3 record). Percentage-wise, that is only worse than San Diego’s 8-2. On top of that, the Padres lead the league with 12 saves.

– On the opposite side of the surprise meter is Houston, whose bullpen owns a 3-10 won-lost record. Unlike the Reds, the Astros have given away a lot of games late, and their relief pitching has not adequately supported an offense that still averages 5.21 runs per game. Pitching is the clear reason Houston sits at 11-19 at the bottom of the AL West. Of course, the much-awaited return of stopper Josh Hader is expected to significantly bolster the Astros’ bullpen in the next week or two.

– The Hader injury isn’t the only critical one that teams are dealing with in their bullpen currently. The Cubs, who’ve had a big start to the season relief pitching-wise, have been without flamethrower Daniel Palencia for the last couple of weeks. Elsewhere, the Braves are expecting stud closer Raisel Iglesias back sometime early in May. They are another team that hasn’t missed a beat. The Dodgers lost Edwin Diaz last week, and he isn’t expected back until after the All-Star break. And last but not least, Phillies’ fireballer Jhoan Duran was off to a scintillating start before landing on the DL last week. His absence is supposed to be short, but Philly is already digging itself a huge hole and can’t afford to be without him for long.

– Looking back at my opening day bullpen ratings, we see some massive moves from then till now. The four double-digit season-long movers upward so far have been Atlanta (+17), San Francisco (+13), Cincinnati (+11), and Texas (+10). I’ve discussed the Braves and Reds at length already. The Giants and Rangers have been very streaky regarding bullpen production in 2026, and both are currently trending upward.

– The biggest downgrades I have given thus far have belonged to Houston (-30), Chicago White Sox (-19), Kansas City (-18), St Louis (-17), and Milwaukee (-16). The Brewers began the season as my top-rated bullpen but are just 15th in ERA, 22nd in WHIP, and 11th in strikeouts per 9 innings. These were major strengths for Milwaukee in 2025. Manager Pat Murphy has already made a closer swap from Trevor Megill to Abner Uribe, and the group seems to be missing elite lefty setup man Jared Koenig, out on the DL. His so-called replacement, Angel Zerpa, has struggled since coming over from KC.

Just a quick reminder that I like to include in these articles regularly. For those of you perhaps new to VSiN, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid and reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.

Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first few weeks of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:

The easiest way to play the bullpen system

– For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system has recently reversed a slow start, and is 197-170 in all for -24.19 units, and an ROI of -6.6%. Over the last two weeks, this system has gotten back +13.28, so hopefully the worst is behind us.

It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games last year validates why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.

These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:

1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 4-4 for -0.48 units and an ROI of -6%.

2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 15-20 for -6.56 units and a ROI of -18.7%.

3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 55-34 start for +4.62 units and an ROI of +5.2%.

4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 27-34 for +8.41 units. I don’t expect this to last long.

** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 60-37 start for +9.58 units and an ROI of +9.9%.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 13-6 for -1.4 units. Over the last two weeks, this angle has lost -6.78 units and is trending normally again.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 19-12 but for -11.17 units so far. Be cautious with this one.

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to an 11-6 start for -3.11 units. The ROI on that is -18.3%.

Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a near-dead-even start, 55-61 for -.01 units.

Better bullpen underdog teams in the -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 51-55 for -0.47 units thus far, a second straight slow start.

Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 28-37 start for -5.27 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 8-16 for -7.53 units and an ROI of -31.4%.

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it comes off another solid week of -2.92 units, and the overall season record is now 27-37 for -6.48 units.

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a modest first month start of 37-29 for -4.89 units after a two-week stretch of +9.86 units.

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 16-19 for -9.91 units.

Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.

These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.

Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 4/26)

Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. TEXAS: 2.86
2. CINCINNATI: 2.91
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.94
4. PITTSBURGH: 3.17
5. SEATTLE: 3.19

Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. HOUSTON: 6.31
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.75
28. LA ANGELS: 5.38
27. WASHINGTON: 5.27
26. TAMPA BAY: 5.27

Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.09
2. TEXAS: 1.18
3. BALTIMORE: 1.22
4. ARIZONA: 1.22
5. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.23

Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. HOUSTON: 1.7
29. KANSAS CITY: 1.62
28. LA ANGELS: 1.58
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.58
26. MINNESOTA: 1.53

Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. MIAMI: 10.51
2. TORONTO: 10.42
3. CLEVELAND: 10.12
4. PITTSBURGH: 9.82
5. BALTIMORE: 9.53

Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.16
29. ST LOUIS: 7.36
28. TAMPA BAY: 7.78
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 7.92
26. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.95

Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. PITTSBURGH: 0.87
2. CLEVELAND: 0.89
3. TEXAS: 0.9
4. NY YANKEES: 0.94
5. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.98

Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. DETROIT: 1.91
29. HOUSTON: 1.89
28. LA ANGELS: 1.82
27. PHILADELPHIA: 1.71
26. SAN DIEGO: 1.69

I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.

Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (4/20):

Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. TORONTO: +9 points
2. PITTSBURGH: +8
3. ATHLETICS: +7
4. SAN FRANCISCO: +6
5. SEATTLE: +4

Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. LA ANGELS: -9 points
2. DETROIT: -8
3. HOUSTON: -7
5. ARIZONA: -6
5. MILWAUKEE: -6
5. SAN DIEGO: -6

Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 4/27)

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Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 24
2. SEATTLE: 22
3. SAN DIEGO: 20
4. TEXAS: 18
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 16
6. CINCINNATI: 16
7. LA DODGERS: 15
8. PITTSBURGH: 15
9. SAN FRANCISCO: 15
10. ATHLETICS: 13
11. TORONTO: 12
12. BOSTON: 12
13. CLEVELAND: 12
14. MIAMI: 11
15. NY YANKEES: 9
16. MILWAUKEE: 8
17. DETROIT: 8
18. PHILADELPHIA: 6
19. ARIZONA: 6
20. NY METS: 6
21. BALTIMORE: 1
22. TAMPA BAY: 1
23. COLORADO: 0
24. KANSAS CITY: -8
25. LA ANGELS: -10
26. MINNESOTA: -12
27. ST LOUIS: -12
28. HOUSTON: -16
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -18
30. WASHINGTON: -21

These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.

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