MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 24.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

6:40 PM Eastern

Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez closed out the 2025 season by allowing at least four runs in eight of his last 10 starts, and while his 3.30 ERA is low, his strikeouts are way down with a career-low six per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has pitched better than his 5.82 ERA would indicate, posting a 4.32 fielding independent with just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, and he is supported by a bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the league at 2.54, while the Tigers bullpen ranks 15th at 4.24.

Pick: Reds Moneyline +118
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -116

7:07 PM Eastern

Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer looked better in his last outing, allowing two runs across six innings, but still owns a 7.16 ERA this season with 5.5 strikeouts and 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings after posting a 5.19 ERA with two home runs per nine innings last season. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has a 2.12 ERA with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings, but his 5.2 walks per nine innings and 3.92 fielding independent are concerns, especially with the Guardians bullpen slipping from third in ERA last season at 3.44 to 24th this season at 4.87.

Pick: Guardians vs. Blue Jays Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3

7:10 PM Eastern

Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen owns a 2.75 ERA this season with 9.2 strikeouts and 1.4 walks per nine innings, but his 4.21 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings is a concern. Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley is also off to a strong start with a 1.63 ERA and 1.99 fielding independent, but he now faces a Rays team he began the 2025 season with, when he struggled to a 5.05 ERA with eight strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.70, while the Rays offense ranks 11th in scoring with over 4.8 runs per game.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -116 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -141 and Total 7.9

7:15 PM Eastern

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter owns a 4.42 ERA through four MLB appearances, with 9.8 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs per nine innings pointing toward upside, but he is backed by a team riding a nine-game losing streak. The bullpen ranks 20th in ERA at 4.66, and the Phillies entered Thursday last in the National League in road scoring with 2.9 runs per game. The Braves lead the league in scoring with over 5.7 runs per game, and starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.42 ERA, though his 4.26 fielding independent with 3.8 walks per nine innings is a concern that is somewhat offset by the Braves ranking second in bullpen ERA at 3.05.

Pick: Braves Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -156

8:15 PM Eastern

Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals

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Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby owns a solid 2.97 ERA this season, but his 3.89 fielding independent and career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings are concerns. He also had notable home and road splits last season, posting a 3.38 ERA with just over 0.9 home runs per nine innings at home compared to a 5.16 ERA with over 1.2 home runs per nine innings on the road. Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante owns a 4.05 ERA this season but a much higher 5.19 fielding independent with 5.4 strikeouts and five walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 13th in scoring with 4.7 runs per game.

Pick: Mariners vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6

10:15 PM Eastern

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon owns a 3.97 ERA this season, but his 6.05 fielding independent with 2.4 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings points toward negative regression. Dodgers starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan has struggled to a 5.85 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings but posted a 2.82 ERA in 2025 with 10.9 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. He also owns a lifetime 2.81 ERA at home compared to a 5.61 ERA on the road. The Dodgers have produced less offense at home than on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game at home compared to 6.7 runs per game away.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +122 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -113 and Total 8.7

Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants

Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara looks more like his peak form this season after a disappointing 2025, leading the league in innings pitched with 35 1/3 while posting a 3.06 ERA with one home run and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Giants lineup that is last in the National League in home scoring with 2.8 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser owns a 5.40 ERA, but his 4.43 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings points toward improvement, especially after posting a 3.31 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings in 2025.

Pick: Marlins vs. Giants Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.1

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