MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 15.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

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6:40 PM Eastern

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has started the season strong with a 2.77 ERA and 3.00 fielding independent, allowing only 0.7 home runs per nine innings with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, while Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has struggled with a 5.14 ERA, allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings and at least three earned runs in four of his past five starts. The Pirates are second in the league in scoring at home with 5.7 runs per game.

Pick: Pirates Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -148

7:10 PM Eastern

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk has done a good job of not self-inflicting wounds with a 3.25 ERA, allowing only 0.8 home runs and two walks per nine innings, while Rays starting pitcher Jesse Scholtens has been effective with a 3.29 ERA despite getting only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings. He should benefit from facing a Marlins lineup that is 26th in the league in home runs hit on a per-at-bat basis, while the Rays are 11th in scoring with 4.5 runs per game.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -112
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -145

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians

Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has been unlucky to start the season 0-5, as he has a 4.17 ERA overall and has been a far better pitcher at home than on the road, posting a 1.63 ERA with 0.65 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to an 8.15 ERA on the road with over 2.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has a 4.47 ERA with 6.4 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings allowed. The Reds have fallen to 23rd in bullpen ERA at 4.63 after having the lowest bullpen ERA in the league less than five weeks ago.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -134

7:15 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets

While Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has a superb 1.86 ERA, his 3.44 fielding independent with only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings points toward regression, while Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been dominant with a 1.35 ERA and 1.64 fielding independent with 10 strikeouts per nine innings and only one home run allowed across 53 1/3 innings this season. The Yankees have a huge edge on offense, as the Mets entered Thursday 29th in scoring with 3.6 runs per game while the Yankees are fourth with 5.1 runs per game.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline -142
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -154

Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves

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Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider looked like his old self in his previous start, just his second of 2026, providing six shutout innings with only one hit allowed against the Los Angeles Dodgers and facing a Red Sox offense that entered Thursday 27th in the league in scoring with 3.8 runs per game, while Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has a solid 3.16 ERA but a 4.35 fielding independent with 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed and faces a Braves offense that leads the league in scoring with 5.6 runs per game.

Pick: Braves Moneyline -146
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -174

8:15 PM Eastern

Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May has a high ERA at 4.85, he has pitched much better of late with two earned runs or fewer allowed in four of his past five starts and owns a 3.81 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed. He gets to face a Royals offense that is last in road run creation with fewer than 3.1 runs per game, while Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has done a solid job as a veteran with a 2.63 ERA and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed.

Pick: Royals vs. Cardinals Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9

8:40 PM Eastern

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

While Coors Field has the highest ballpark factor in elevating scoring in the league, the Rockies are only 11th in home scoring with 4.6 runs per game and send Kyle Freeland to the mound, who has struggled to a 6.00 ERA with 2.1 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has struggled to a 7.62 ERA with 2.1 home runs per nine innings allowed but is showing signs of turning things around after allowing one run in seven innings in his last start. Last season, Kelly had a 3.52 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Under 12 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 11.2

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