MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, April 20.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

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11:10 AM Eastern

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox

Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray closed the 2025 season with a thud, posting a 5.45 ERA with nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed after the All-Star break, and has begun this season with a 4.43 ERA and 4.70 fielding independent with 4.9 strikeouts and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty had a 4.64 ERA last season but a 3.85 fielding independent, and he has begun this season with a 4.03 ERA while allowing just 0.5 home runs per nine innings with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The Red Sox offense has struggled, ranking 24th in scoring at home with 3.6 runs per game.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline +121
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers +106

6:10 PM Eastern

Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians

Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti had a solid first start of the 2026 season, allowing one run in six innings of work, but he is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 5.35 ERA and 5.54 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 5.1 walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has a 5.03 ERA with a 5.27 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings allowed, but he is backed by a bullpen that ranked third in ERA last season at 3.44. Meanwhile, the Astros entered Sunday 29th in bullpen ERA this season at 6.11.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -108 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -147 and Total 8.7

6:40 PM Eastern

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals

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Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder is off to an incredible start to 2026 with a 0.77 ERA through four starts, but there is reason to expect regression considering he posted a 5.30 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed last season. He faces a Nationals lineup that entered Sunday tied with the Braves for second in the league in scoring with 5.6 runs per game. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin is coming off an awful 2025 season in which he had a 5.70 ERA and 5.64 fielding independent with 6.2 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, all while being backed by a bullpen that had a 5.59 ERA last season, which ranked last in the league.

Pick: Braves vs. Nationals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2

7:40 PM Eastern

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals

Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo had a somewhat shaky 2025 season with a 4.15 ERA but a 5.06 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. However, he has looked quite solid in 2026 with a 1.49 ERA and 2.14 fielding independent without allowing a home run. Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has been shaky to begin 2026 after dealing with multiple injuries over the past two seasons, posting a 5.49 ERA with 4.6 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that ranks 25th in road scoring at 3.2 runs per game.

Pick: Royals Moneyline +105 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -102 and Total 8.3

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs

Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola is coming off a rough 2025 season in which he posted a 6.01 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and has begun this season with a 4.03 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea had a 3.95 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings in 2025 and has been even better in four appearances this season with a 3.63 ERA with one home run and 2.5 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Phillies lineup that is last in the National League in road scoring with fewer than 3.2 runs per game.

Pick: Cubs Moneyline -102 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -130 and Total 9.2

8:40 PM Eastern

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies

Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 4.23 ERA with a significantly better 2.93 fielding independent, though most of that work came out of the bullpen. He now gets a start at Coors Field, which has the highest park factor for offense in baseball. Rockies starting pitcher Jose Quintana is coming off a 2025 season with the Milwaukee Brewers in which he had a 3.96 ERA and 4.81 fielding independent with 6.1 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings and has been far shakier this season, posting a 5.63 ERA with eight walks issued in eight innings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.75 runs per game entering Sunday, which jumps to 7.75 runs per game on the road.

Pick: Dodgers vs. Rockies Over 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 11.7

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