MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, June 15.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

6:40 PM Eastern

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto has pitched only nine innings at the MLB level this season, allowing six runs in those innings after posting a 5.67 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings in 2025.

Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler’s strikeout numbers are down, recording 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings, his lowest rate since 2020. That makes it appear as though his current 2.22 ERA might be due for some regression, especially considering his 3.58 fielding independent and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Marlins vs. Phillies Over 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.2

6:45 PM Eastern

Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals

The Royals currently have “to be announced” listed as their starting pitcher, but few of the options are appealing. The team ranks 27th in bullpen ERA at 4.88 and has much of its starting rotation on the injured list. Offensively, the Royals rank last in road scoring with 3.5 runs per game.

They face Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez, who owns a 3.70 ERA and a 3.39 fielding independent with 9.6 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is backed by an offense that leads the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game.

Pick: Nationals Moneyline -130

Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -148

7:10 PM Eastern

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds

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The Mets give Tobias Myers the start on the mound. He is fresh off the injured list and owns a 4.05 ERA and a 4.52 fielding independent. There is also a strong likelihood that David Peterson will serve as either a piggyback or bulk pitcher. Peterson owns a 5.75 ERA with 3.8 walks per nine innings and is supported by a lineup that ranks 29th in road run production with 3.7 runs per game.

Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns owns a 2.14 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Reds Moneyline -134 and Over 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Reds -173 and Total 8.4

7:45 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Padres starting pitcher Lucas Giolito owns a respectable 4.35 ERA but is issuing more walks than strikeouts, recording 7.8 walks and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He does benefit from being backed by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 3.09, but the Padres lineup ranks last in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.

Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May owns a 4.22 ERA, but his 3.21 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings suggests he has pitched better than his ERA would indicate.

Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -130 and Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -146 and Total 7.8

8:10 PM Eastern

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton has been quite effective this season with a 2.81 ERA, though his 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings are a concern.

Astros starting pitcher Kai-Wei Teng has had some control issues, issuing 4.2 walks per nine innings, but he owns a solid 3.71 ERA and faces a Tigers lineup that ranks 26th in road run creation with 3.8 runs per game.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline +118

Greg’s Handicap: Tigers +111

9:40 PM Eastern

Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Angels starting pitcher Walbert Urena has been a bright spot for the club this season with a 2.44 ERA. However, his 4.01 fielding independent and 5.4 walks allowed per nine innings are concerning. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.74.

Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson owns a 5.19 ERA and a 5.53 fielding independent while allowing two home runs per nine innings. The Angels rank sixth in road scoring with five runs per game.

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -122 and Over 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -166 and Total 9.6

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