MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, April 19.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

1:35 PM Eastern

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan has been okay to begin the season with a 3.95 ERA and a 4.62 fielding independent, but he clearly is not quite back to peak form after missing the entire 2024 and 2025 seasons, posting 8.6 strikeouts and 7.2 walks per nine innings. The walks could knock him out of this start early, and the Rays bullpen is 28th in ERA at 5.98. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller owns a 2.86 ERA but a 3.84 fielding independent with a career-low 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and in each of the past three seasons, Keller has had an ERA between 4.19 and 4.25. He faces a Rays lineup that is eighth in scoring on the road with 5.2 runs per game.

Pick: Rays vs. Pirates Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox

Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet has gotten off to a rough start this season, posting a 7.58 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings allowed. Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez ended the 2025 season by giving up at least four runs in eight of his last 10 starts and has begun 2026 with a 3.75 ERA and just 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Both offenses should show signs of improvement after the Tigers ranked 11th in the league in scoring last season with 4.6 runs per game, while the Red Sox ranked sixth with 4.8 runs per game. In 2026, the Red Sox entered Saturday 19th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while Detroit is 18th with 4.2 runs per game.

Pick: Tigers vs. Red Sox Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6

San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals

Nationals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas is off to a rough start to the 2026 season, posting an 11.49 ERA with 3.4 home runs and 5.2 walks per nine innings. The Giants entered the series last in the league in scoring with fewer than 3.1 runs per game but broke out with 10 runs in Friday’s win. Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray has a 2.42 ERA but a 4.68 fielding independent, with four home runs allowed across his four starts in 22 1/3 innings, and he faces a Nationals lineup that entered the weekend ranked third in scoring with 5.6 runs per game.

Pick: Giants vs. Nationals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.4

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees

Royals starting pitcher Cole Ragans has not been the same pitcher he was in 2025, when he had a 2.50 fielding independent with 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings, as he dealt with multiple injuries that may be lingering into 2026. He now owns a 3.78 ERA with a 5.38 fielding independent, allowing 1.6 home runs and 5.4 walks per nine innings. Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers has also had a rough start to the season, posting a 4.29 ERA with 1.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings, but the Yankees lineup appeared to snap out of its funk on Saturday. The Yankees entered Saturday 13th in the league with 4.5 runs per game after leading the league in scoring last season with 5.2 runs per game, and their 13-run explosion may have been what was needed to get things going again.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline -135 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -166 and Total 8.3

1:40 PM Eastern

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins

Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski has a 3.32 ERA with 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings but is still dealing with control issues, allowing 1.7 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings for a 4.03 fielding independent. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez had significant home and road splits last season, posting a 2.93 ERA with 0.2 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 5.33 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings on the road. Through four starts this season, he has a 5.40 ERA, though that drops to 3.75 at home. He faces a Brewers lineup dealing with a bevy of injuries.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline +102 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -107 and Total 7.2

2:10 PM Eastern

Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins

Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 5.10 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings and has a 5.49 ERA to begin this season with a career-low 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 5.60 ERA to begin the season, but his 4.63 fielding independent and improved command, issuing just 1.5 walks per nine innings, point toward positive regression. He is backed by a Reds bullpen that entered the weekend leading the league in ERA at 2.31.

Pick: Reds Moneyline +108
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -104

2:20 PM Eastern

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

It has been a miserable start to the 2026 season for Mets starting pitcher David Peterson, posting a 6.41 ERA with 4.6 walks per nine innings, but his 3.36 fielding independent with 9.6 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward improvement. Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad has allowed nine runs in 10 innings across his first two starts of 2026 but is coming off a 2025 season in which he had a 3.65 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings. He faces a Mets offense that entered Saturday 26th in scoring with under 3.5 runs per game, and both pitchers should benefit from the wind blowing in.

Pick: Mets vs. Cubs Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3

3:10 PM Eastern

Embed from Getty Images

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies

The Dodgers entered Saturday leading the league in scoring with 5.9 runs per game overall, which rises to a staggering 8.4 runs per game on the road. They face Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled at Coors Field with 10 runs allowed in two starts across 8 2/3 innings at home this season and an overall 8.10 ERA with 17.3 hits allowed per nine innings. Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has also struggled, posting a 6.23 ERA with 2.1 home runs and 6.9 walks per nine innings to begin 2026 after issuing 1.5 home runs and 5.4 walks per nine innings in 2025.

Pick: Dodgers vs. Rockies Over 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 12.3

4:05 PM Eastern

Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics

White Sox starting pitcher Noah Schultz was shaky in his MLB debut, allowing four runs (three earned) across 4 1/3 innings after posting a 4.95 ERA with 5.5 walks per nine innings across multiple minor league levels in 2025. Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs has a 1.46 ERA without allowing a home run across four starts this season but had a 4.11 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings last season, with his performance dipping at home, where he posted a 4.81 ERA and allowed nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings in Sacramento. The Athletics lineup is averaging five runs per game at home, ranking 11th in the league, while the White Sox bullpen entered the series 26th in ERA at 5.60.

Pick: Athletics Moneyline -145 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -174 and Total 9.9

4:07 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels

Padres starting pitcher Michael King appears to be returning to his 2024 form, when he posted a 2.95 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings before an injury-plagued 2025, as he has a 2.76 ERA with 0.4 home runs allowed through his first four starts this season. Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers owns a 3.57 ERA, but his 2.49 fielding independent with 10.3 strikeouts and 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward positive regression. The difference in this matchup may be a strong Padres bullpen that had the lowest ERA in the league at 3.06.

Pick: Padres Moneyline -115 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -148 and Total 8.1

7:20 PM Eastern

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Across his three MLB appearances, Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has a 3.77 ERA and has pitched better than that mark would indicate, allowing no home runs and posting a 1.55 fielding independent. However, there is concern about regression after he posted a 5.26 ERA in the minors last season. He faces a Braves lineup that entered Saturday second in the league in scoring with nearly 5.8 runs per game, which rises to over 6.4 runs per game on the road. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.32 ERA, but his 7.1 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings, along with a 4.17 fielding independent, suggest regression. While the Phillies lineup has been inconsistent to begin 2026, the team ranked third in home scoring last season with 5.3 runs per game.

Pick: Braves vs. Phillies Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7

The post MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets Sunday, April 19 appeared first on VSiN.