MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, May 14.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

12:35 PM Eastern

Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski has pitched better than his 4.50 ERA would indicate with a 2.84 fielding independent, allowing only 0.5 home runs per nine innings with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings, while Rockies starting pitcher Chase Dollander is starting to put things together as an MLB pitcher with a 3.38 ERA, allowing one home run per nine innings with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The Rockies offense is 24th in road run creation with 3.8 runs per game.

Pick: Pirates Run Line -1.5 +130
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -1.5 -103

12:40 PM Eastern

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has come back from overseas and has been super effective with a 2.12 ERA this season, but his 4.08 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward regression, and the Nationals back him up with a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.79, while Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has a similar 2.11 ERA with a 3.76 fielding independent, allowing 1.1 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings and facing a Nationals lineup that is second in scoring with 5.4 runs per game.

Pick: Nationals vs. Reds Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9

1:40 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Padres starting pitcher Griffin Canning is making his third start of the season after beginning 2026 on the injured list, and while he’s getting 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings, his issue with giving out walks has manifested itself, as he issued 4.1 walks per nine innings last season and 4.8 walks per nine innings this season, leading to a 6.75 ERA, while Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison has a 2.41 ERA with 11 strikeouts per nine innings and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and faces a Padres team that entered Wednesday averaging just four runs per game over their past 25 games, even with the two-game series in Mexico City included.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -154

3:05 PM Eastern

Embed from Getty Images

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics

Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has gotten off to a stellar start to the season thanks to not self-inflicting wounds, posting a 2.18 ERA despite getting only 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings with just one home run and two walks per nine innings allowed, while Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez has struggled to a 6.11 ERA with two home runs and 6.1 walks per nine innings and faces a Cardinals lineup that is fourth in the league in scoring away from home with over 5.2 runs per game.

Pick: Cardinals Moneyline +103
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -111

6:45 PM Eastern

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox

While positive regression should be coming for Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo, it simply has not, as he enters Thursday with a 2.97 fielding independent, 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and one home run allowed per nine innings, but also a 5.77 ERA. He is backed by a Phillies offense that is 28th in the league in road scoring with just over 3.4 runs per game, while Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suárez is looking to stick it to the team he pitched for in 2025 and has begun the season with a 2.77 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline +100 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -132 and Total 8.3

10:10 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan has a 4.79 ERA this season, but his 3.82 fielding independent with 10.9 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings points toward positivity, and Sheehan has very demonstrative home and road splits, owning a 2.68 ERA with one home run per nine innings allowed at home while that balloons to a lifetime 5.75 ERA on the road with over 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. He should benefit from facing a Giants lineup that is last in the league in scoring with 3.5 runs per game, while Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has a 3.09 ERA with only one home run allowed in 43 1/3 innings, but also has a lifetime 5.71 ERA in his five career appearances against the Dodgers.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -107 and Total 8.7

The post MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets Thursday, May 14 appeared first on VSiN.