MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, May 21.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

1:15 PM Eastern

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has enjoyed a strong start to the season, posting a 2.43 ERA and 2.68 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs allowed and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo owns a 3.40 ERA, but a higher 4.37 fielding independent with 4.3 walks allowed per nine innings. Both teams have relatively even bullpens, with the Guardians ranking 13th in bullpen ERA at 3.86 and the Tigers ranking 14th at 3.92.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline -108

Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -132

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has gotten off to a solid start this season with a 3.09 ERA while allowing 0.8 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. However, he faces a Cardinals offense that ranks ninth in scoring with 4.6 runs per game, while the Pirates rank seventh with 4.9 runs per game. The Cardinals send Dustin May to the mound to try to slow them down. He owns a 4.81 ERA with only 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA at 4.43.

Pick: Pirates vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1

7:05 PM Eastern

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

The Blue Jays’ starting pitching situation is a bit of a question mark, but Spencer Miles appears in line to serve as the primary pitcher Thursday. He owns a 2.55 ERA this season, but he has not pitched longer than 3 2/3 innings in any appearance and is backed by a Blue Jays bullpen that ranks 16th in ERA at 4.06. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón owns a 5.63 ERA through two starts after beginning the season on the injured list. He has struggled with command, issuing eight walks in eight innings, but is still recording 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He is also supported by a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home scoring with 6.5 runs per game.

Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -1.5 +102 and Total 8.9

9:38 PM Eastern

Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino has battled command issues this season, posting a 4.45 ERA with 5.1 walks per nine innings. However, he has been better on the road with a 3.56 ERA away from home compared to a 5.55 ERA at home. Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano owns a 2.41 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. He also faces an Athletics offense that ranks 18th in road scoring with 4.2 runs per game, while the Angels rank 28th in home scoring with 3.1 runs per game.

Pick: Angels Moneyline and Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Angels -118 and Total 7.6

9:40 PM Eastern

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Rockies starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano appears due for regression on his 4.02 ERA, as he owns a 5.50 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings and only 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.53 ERA, but a higher 3.86 fielding independent while issuing 3.7 walks per nine innings and pitching to a good amount of contact with only 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Both bullpens have been below average this season, with the Diamondbacks ranking 18th in ERA at 4.25 and the Rockies ranking 21st at 4.44.

Pick: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Over 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3

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