MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, April 28.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

6:40 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo has gotten off to a brutal start to the season with a 6.91 ERA, but the underlying numbers point toward improvement, as he owns a 3.24 fielding independent with 10.9 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. He should benefit from facing a Giants lineup that ranks 29th in scoring with fewer than 3.5 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has also struggled to begin 2026 with a 5.26 ERA, allowing 2.1 home runs and 4.9 walks per nine innings, though he is coming off a strong 2025 season in which he posted a 2.18 ERA with just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 2.93.

Pick: Giants vs. Phillies Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7

7:07 PM Eastern

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays turn to Trey Yesavage for his first start of the season after spending nearly a month on the injured list. He pitched just 14 innings at the MLB level during the 2025 regular season but impressed in the postseason with a 3.58 ERA and 3.60 fielding independent while recording 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings in six appearances. However, he struggled during his minor league rehab assignment this season, posting a 7.50 ERA with 2.3 home runs and 5.3 walks per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle is coming off a strong season debut with 11 strikeouts and one run allowed across six innings, but he had a 6.06 ERA with 2.8 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings in his seven MLB appearances this season. The Red Sox offense appears to be heating up, scoring a combined 22 runs over the weekend after ranking sixth in scoring last season with 4.8 runs per game.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -120 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -136 and Total 8.4

7:10 PM Eastern

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Nationals starting pitcher Zack Littell has been hit hard, posting a 7.56 ERA and 8.61 fielding independent with 5.4 strikeouts and four home runs allowed per nine innings. The bullpen behind him ranks 27th in ERA at 5.27. Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes may be due for regression, as he owns a 2.10 ERA but a 4.26 fielding independent with 5.7 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. He faces a Nationals lineup that ranks third in scoring with 5.4 runs per game.

Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -1.5 -103 and Total 8.4

7:15 PM Eastern

Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves

Braves starting pitcher Martín Pérez has not generated many swings and misses with just 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but he has been effective with a 2.70 ERA, allowing 1.2 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a Braves bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.14, while the Tigers bullpen ranks 19th at 4.36. Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has also been strong to begin the season with a 2.51 ERA, 10 strikeouts per nine innings, and 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he faces a Braves offense that leads the league in scoring with over 5.7 runs per game.

Pick: Braves Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -153

7:40 PM Eastern

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox

Angels starting pitcher José Soriano is off to a historic start with a 0.24 ERA through six starts, allowing just 4.3 hits per nine innings while recording 10.3 strikeouts per nine. While regression is likely, he draws a favorable matchup against a White Sox lineup that ranks 27th in home scoring with just over 3.3 runs per game. White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has also started well with a 2.01 ERA, but his 3.06 fielding independent and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings suggest potential regression. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks third in road scoring with nearly 5.8 runs per game, and the White Sox bullpen ranks 24th in ERA at 5.15.

Pick: Angels Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Angels -164

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins

Embed from Getty Images

Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has pitched better than his 4.36 ERA suggests, supported by a 3.01 fielding independent with 9.5 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings. However, he had notable home/road splits in 2025, posting a 2.24 ERA at home compared to a 4.74 ERA on the road. Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has also outperformed his ERA indicators, posting a 3.90 ERA with a 3.22 fielding independent, allowing 0.8 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. He faces a Mariners lineup that ranks 28th in road scoring with 3.25 runs per game entering Monday.

Pick: Twins Moneyline +110
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -126

8:05 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom’s strikeout numbers have returned to peak levels, recording 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings with a 2.13 ERA to begin the season. Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been outstanding as well, posting a 1.77 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts and just one walk allowed per nine innings. The difference may come from the bullpen, where the Rangers entered the series leading the league in ERA at 2.86, while the Yankees rank 13th at 3.92.

Pick: Rangers Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -122

9:40 PM Eastern

Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres

Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera has seen his strikeout rate drop to a career-low 6.7 per nine innings but has done an excellent job limiting damage with just 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, resulting in a 2.73 ERA. Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 5.75 ERA suggests, posting a 3.27 fielding independent with 8.9 strikeouts and just 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a Padres bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.12.

Pick: Cubs vs. Padres Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3

The post MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets Tuesday, April 28 appeared first on VSiN.